No, It’s Not Too Early to Start Talking Oscar

Unlike last year at this time, when few obvious Oscar contenders had emerged, this year offers several among films that have already been released.

Most obvious among these is “Erin Brockovich,” which opened in the spring. Given how difficult it usually is to scrape together five female performances worthy of mention, Julia Roberts would seem to have a better-than-fighting-chance of securing her first best actress nomination since “Pretty Woman.”

And depending on the strength of the fall crop of films, the Steven Soderbergh-directed movie also has possibilities in the main-event category. For good measure, Soderbergh has another potential candidate at year’s end, the independently financed “Traffic,” an ensemble drama about the drug trade starring Michael Douglas.

Speaking of Douglas, in addition to “Traffic,” he received high grades earlier this year for his performance as a hapless, pot-addled professor in “Wonder Boys.” Although Curtis Hanson’s character-driven comedy didn’t succeed with audiences, Paramount Pictures is giving it another shot in theaters this fall, which could serve to refresh the film in the minds of critics, the public--and, significantly, members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. In addition to Douglas, the film contains fine supporting turns from Frances McDormand, Tobey Maguire and Robert Downey Jr. that could pique voters’ curiosity.

Ridley Scott’s film “Gladiator,” which opened in May, is the kind of good, old-fashioned epic filmmaking that could, given the mix of the competition, show up among the five best picture contenders, just as the star-making performance by Russell Crowe could propel him to the best actor finals.

For similar reasons, there was once hope for “The Patriot,” although it now appears to be a longshot (it didn’t do well enough with critics, historians or audiences). But Mel Gibson’s title performance still might make the cut. A left-field possibility is the Hungarian-made, English-language, multi-generation family drama “Sunshine,” starring Ralph Fiennes and Jennifer Ehle.

Two smaller movies that opened in the first half of the year and scored critical kudos are likely to show up on top 10 lists and critics’ awards at year’s end: the comedy “High Fidelity,” directed by Stephen Frears and starring John Cusack, and Mike Hodges’ sleeper independent hit “Croupier” with Clive Owen. Despite their critical support, both films could easily be overlooked when the major studios start spending hand over fist on Academy Award campaigns for their high-profile pictures.

Now for the crystal-ball part. Several upcoming releases have already been screened at film festivals or at early press screenings and are generating interesting comment. Ang Lee’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” starring Chow-Yun Fat and Michelle Yeoh, was very well-received this year in Cannes and just might work in the “and now for something completely different” slot--an epic martial-arts romance. The Coen brothers’ Depression-era comedy with music, “O Brother Where Art Thou,” starring George Clooney, also made some noise and, as they proved with “Fargo,” they can push the envelope and reap Oscar gold.

The Cannes Palme d’Or winner, “Dancer in the Dark,” from Lars Von Trier, also pushes the envelope--inside out. It’s a musical tragedy. Critics and audiences were sharply divided on the film, though the screen debut of pop star Bjork is certainly not to be discounted, again because genuine star turns for women are usually scarce.

Another performance that was singled out in Cannes was from Willem Dafoe, who played a vampire playing an actor playing a vampire in “Shadow of the Vampire.” And Neil LaBute’s offbeat black comedy “Nurse Betty” picked up a screenplay prize at Cannes and won points for the central performances by Renee Zellweger and Morgan Freeman (“Nurse Betty” opened last Friday). Veteran Oscar winner Ellen Burstyn got lots of attention in director Darren Aronofsky’s “Requiem for a Dream” (as well as for her meaty role in “The Yards”), either of which could bring her a supporting actress nod.

One of the festival’s genuine sleepers was the uplifting British film “Billy Elliot,” about a boy from a mining town who wants to study ballet. The film has a chance to slip into the little-engine-that-could slot at Oscar time, which happened with other offbeat British films like “My Left Foot” and “The Full Monty.” The film debut of theater director Stephen Daldry (“An Inspector Calls”) features only one familiar name, former Oscar nominee Julie Walters (“Educating Rita”), with Jamie Bell’s work in the title role being favorably compared to Haley Joel Osment last year in “The Sixth Sense.”

One film out of Sundance this year could have possibilities: “You Can Count on Me,” a comedy-drama about estranged siblings, with breakout performances by Laura Linney and Mark Ruffalo.

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Based on the buzz from early screenings, there are several films ripe with possibilities in various categories. Writer-director Cameron Crowe, who sneaked into town late in 1996 with “Jerry Maguire” and walked away with several major nominations, has a new film, “Almost Famous,” (which opens this Wednesday), a coming-of-age tale about rock ‘n’ roll in the early ‘70s that could almost be a companion piece to “High Fidelity.” The film features several potentially worthy performances including Kate Hudson, Billy Crudup, Philip Seymour Hoffman and McDormand.

A film likely to generate heated debates about censorship--the film’s theme--is the period drama “Quills,” which has all the ingredients of a sophisticated Oscar-caliber vehicle. Directed by Philip Kaufman (“The Right Stuff,” “The Unbearable Lightness of Being”) and based on the life of the Marquis de Sade, “Quills” stars Oscar winners Geoffrey Rush and Michael Caine, two-time nominee Kate Winslet and Joaquin Phoenix. As former winners, Rush and Caine both have an inside track, and it’s been a banner year for Phoenix, who starred as a mad Roman emperor in “Gladiator” and has a prominent role in the drama “The Yards” opposite Mark Wahlberg. One of those performances could earn him his first Oscar nomination.

Multiple nominee Joan Allen stars with Gary Oldman in the political drama “The Contender,” which is also generating positive word for the performances. As a frequent nominee and double winner, Robert De Niro is never to be discounted, and he has one of those flashy drill-sergeant roles (actually a master chief petty officer) in “Men of Honor,” which co-stars fellow winner Cuba Gooding Jr., in a true story about the first African American Navy diver.

Coming months will bring other possible contenders, some of which will inevitably disappoint, with the usual backdoor surprise or two. The most closely watched films will be those that have Oscar lineage. Members of the former-winners-and/or-nominees club often have a bit of an edge in future races.

Last year’s best actor winner Kevin Spacey could be in contention again for the heartwarming drama “Pay It Forward,” which also boasts strong work from former nominee Osment and Oscar winner Helen Hunt, one of several upcoming movies in which she appears. Angie Dickinson also could be a longshot for supporting actress.

Another film with an Oscar pedigree is “Castaway,” a survival drama that reunites the Forrest Gump team of Tom Hanks and director Robert Zemeckis. As a perennial nominee and two-time winner, Hanks is always a formidable contender. Lightning could strike twice for writer-director M. Night Shyamalan, who was a surprise nominee last year for “The Sixth Sense.” His new film, “Unbreakable,” is another mystical drama and again stars Bruce Willis, this time paired with Samuel L. Jackson.

Cate Blanchett, who was nominated for “Elizabeth,” may have another chance at the gold this year for her performance as a clairvoyant in “The Gift,” written by Oscar-winning screenwriter Billy Bob Thornton and directed by Sam Raimi (“A Simple Plan”). Thornton is directing an adaptation of the Cormac McCarthy novel “All the Pretty Horses,” starring Matt Damon, who is a double threat this year, his other film being Robert Redford’s period drama “The Legend of Bagger Vance.” Jude Law, who copped a nomination opposite Damon in “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” is top-billed this time in the epic war film “Enemy at the Gates,” about the WWII siege of Stalingrad. It’s due at Christmastime.

The December qualification deadline will offer the usual crowd of hopefuls, starting with “The Pledge,” directed by Sean Penn and starring Jack Nicholson, who has more nominations under his belt than any other actor (as well as three victories). Director Lasse Halstrom, who was nominated for “The Cider House Rules” last year, has another romantic drama debuting this December, “Chocolat,” starring Johnny Depp and Juliette Binoche (who won an Oscar for “The English Patient”).

The Cuban missile crisis drama “13 Days,” starring Kevin Costner, could be one of those serious movies that Oscar voters love to embrace. Also arriving under the wire to qualify before the Dec. 31 deadline is director Gus Van Sant’s follow-up to “Good Will Hunting,” titled “Finding Forrester,” starring Sean Connery as a J.D. Salinger-type writer who comes out of hiding to help a ghetto youth. The sentimental drama “Family Man” could present another Oscar shot for Nicolas Cage (he won for “Leaving Las Vegas”).

As with “Gladiator,” Baz Luhrmann’s big-budget musical “Moulin Rouge” could revive another long-dormant genre, and, if it lives up to its promise, be the kind of movie that in days of old usually figured prominently among the best picture finals. And, finally, prolific writer-director David Mamet has made a comedy, “State and Main,” about a film crew that turns a Vermont town upside-down. There’s always room for a good comedy in the Oscar race, especially one that derives its humor from making fun of the film industry.