Off-Season Should Manage to Be Hard on Some

Assuming all 30 major league managers will survive the final week of the season, this will be one of the few campaigns since Doubleday--that’s Abner, not Nelson--in which there will have been no firings.

Call it the calm before the storm. A dozen or so managers could go in the early hours of the off-season. Here’s a status report:

LEAST SECURE

1. Gene Lamont, Pittsburgh: Dazed owner predicted 90 wins, and team will lose 90. Lamont has been told he will not be back.

2. Jack McKeon, Cincinnati: The 1999 Manager of the Year got dumber because injuries enabled him to start his projected lineup only 14 times. Likely to be replaced in-house by coach Ron Oester or Junior’s dad, Ken Griffey.

3. Davey Johnson, Dodgers: With strategy and style under front-office fire, certain to go whether Kevin Malone stays or not.

4. Larry Rothschild, Tampa Bay: Tropicana Field survived lineup of designated hitters, but he won’t.

5. Terry Francona, Philadelphia: Possible scapegoat for bullpen failures and fan frustration. Could replace Lamont in Pittsburgh.

6. Felipe Alou, Montreal: Owner Jeffrey Loria may know art, but does he know an artist? Alou firing would leave chaotic situation even more chaotic. Too much, perhaps, for Jeff Torborg, a close Loria friend, to take one more managerial crack.

7. Buck Showalter, Arizona: Bob Brenly waits in the wings, but inside information suggests that the control-obsessed Showalter will survive while forfeiting authority over the amateur draft, the minor leagues and all areas except clubhouse and field.

8. Jimy Williams, Boston: Disagreements with General Manager Dan Duquette could be fatal if Red Sox don’t reach playoffs. A Seattle candidate if Lou Piniella leaves.

9. Jim Fregosi, Toronto: Has done a big job with pitching-thin team, but new owner is conspicuously quiet about Fregosi’s status. Could replace Williams or return to top scouting role with San Francisco.

10. Larry Dierker, Houston: Owner has to decide if he wants to swallow two years of salary or risk clubhouse revolt led by the Killer Bs--Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio--if he retains Dierker.

11. Bobby Valentine, New York Mets: A second consecutive playoff appearance should garner new contract, but his ego, mouth and deteriorating relationship with General Manager Steve Phillips could get in the way.

12. Art Howe, Oakland: Never quite as popular with General Manager Billy Beane as he has been with Bay Area media, but hard to replace given improving play of young A’s.

13. Lou Piniella, Seattle: Only among least secure because General Manager Pat Gillick, who inherited Piniella, won’t try to stop him if he decides to chase big dollars elsewhere--such as hometown Tampa Bay.

PRETTY SECURE

1. John Boles, Florida: Recently received 2001 contract, but Marlin management will be banking on continued improvement.

2. Tony Muser, Kansas City: Has one more year on contract but knows new management, which may splurge for needed pitching, thinks club is ready for a White Sox-like breakthrough.

3. Tom Kelly, Minnesota: His status as an institution in the disinterested Twin Cities has been tarnished by a series of cellar finishes with a league-low payroll. Kelly continues to tolerate the funding, but will a new chief executive continue to tolerate his taciturn and sometimes abrasive style?

4. Charlie Manuel, Cleveland: Has worked through revolving-door pitching staff and prolonged absence of Manny Ramirez to lead Indians to brink of playoffs in first year of contract that extends through 2002 (counting the option), but homespun style hasn’t been quite as warmly received in managerial role as when he coached.

5. Mike Hargrove, Baltimore: Is signed through 2002 with an option on 2003, but Orioles continue to deteriorate faster than Albert Belle’s hip--we may be talking Bo Jackson here--and no one is ever secure working for Peter Angelos--unless, perhaps, it’s his son, John, the executive vice president.

VERY SECURE

No manager has been totally secure since Connie Mack, who had a piece of the club, but among the very secure, fleeting as even that category is, are:

* Jerry Manuel and Mike Scioscia, whose work with the White Sox and Angels should qualify for multiyear extensions.

* Don Baylor (Cubs), Buddy Bell (Colorado), Phil Garner (Detroit) and Davey Lopes (Milwaukee), who are completing the first year of multiyear contracts--Baylor and Garner are signed for four years and Bell and Lopes for three--and will certainly be given a significant period to prove they weren’t mistakes.

* Dusty Baker (San Francisco), Bruce Bochy (San Diego), Bobby Cox (Atlanta), Tony La Russa (St. Louis), Johnny Oates (Texas) and Joe Torre (New York Yankees), whose respect and accomplishments leave them immune to imminent firing. Which is not to say that another last-place finish by Oates couldn’t change his status or that Baker may not leave San Francisco if he doesn’t receive a salary comparable to Torre’s $3 million per year and/or the four-year security of Baylor and Garner’s deals.

Clearly, no manager would be more widely pursued should Baker test the market. However, with his team in the playoffs and possibly busy through October, he may be too late for the first rash of vacancies expected with the end of the season Sunday. While Baker and the Giants pursue the fall classic, many of his peers are headed for the classic fall that awaits most managers.

Some, of course, will be merely changing uniforms in baseball’s inevitable version of musical chairs.