A Committee That Knows the Ins and Outs

There are 319 Division I men’s college basketball teams, but only 31 have a guaranteed ticket to the NCAA tournament by winning conference tournaments or regular-season conference titles.

That leaves about 90.3% of the nation’s tournament-eligible teams fighting for the remaining 34 bids--the NCAA “expanded” the tournament from 64 to 65 schools this season. Those remaining spots ultimately are determined by 10 NCAA committee members whose discussions continue today at an Indianapolis hotel.

Determining the exact formula used to fill the at-large spots is anyone’s guess because the NCAA committee keeps its criteria confidential.

Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources Inc., operator of https://www.collegerpi.com, features one of the closest analyses available for fans to unofficially follow the fate of their favorite teams.

Here is a look at the most important factors considered by the committee during the selection process when deciding who gets in, who stays home and the kind of seeding those making it can expect:

HIGH RPI RATING

The Ratings Percentage Index is a measure of strength of schedule and a team’s performance against that schedule.

The RPI does not consider things like margin of victory or where a game is played, only whether a team won or lost. It is used by the NCAA as one of the factors in deciding which teams to invite to the tournament and where to seed them.

These ratings seem to have the most impact on bubble teams when it comes down to the final selections.

The highest RPI-rated team to be left out of the tournament since the committee began using the formula in 1981 was Oklahoma (No. 33) in 1994. The lowest-rated team to receive an at-large bid was New Mexico (No. 74) in 1999.

CONFERENCE RECORD AND POLLS

A conference record at or above .500 usually is a good indicator of whether a team has a chance.

Eight teams have made the field with a conference record under .500, two each in 1994 and 1998. That usually means 32-33 of the at-large teams are .500 or better in conference.

Conference standings can be of equal importance because the committee has skipped over one team in the standings to give an at-large bid to another only five times.

Rankings in the national polls also carry weight, although it is not clear whether the committee treats them as a specific factor. The last ranked team left out was No. 25 Nevada Las Vegas in 1993.

STRENGTH OF FINISH

The committee always is looking for a strong finish to the season, measured by a team’s last 10 games before the tournament.

Again, bubble teams can help their cause by playing their best when it counts most.

A team such as Georgia (16-14) is an interesting case because the Bulldogs have the nation’s strongest schedule but lost seven of their last 10 games.

If it’s a choice between Connecticut (18-11), Villanova (18-12) and Missouri (18-12), which is the pick? Connecticut and Villanova were 6-4 in their final 10, Missouri 5-5.

OTHER BONUSES

With no true formula in place, teams can help themselves in a variety of other ways. One is by winning on the road.

Since no team plays on its home floor in the tournament, impressive road victories during the season seem to count a lot in the minds of committee members.

Another major factor is having a tough nonconference schedule. If a team plays half its nonconference games against teams with RPI rankings of 50 or higher, the committee seems to reward bonus points.

The reverse also is true and bubble teams can hurt themselves significantly if they have a majority of games against teams in the RPI’s bottom half.

Even injuries and suspensions to significant players are taken into consideration as long as the player in question is expected to play in the tournament.

MYTHS

Here are a few of the things the committee doesn’t consider, contrary to popular belief in some cases:

* Past tournament performance. Every season, the slate is wiped clean.

* Conference RPI. Teams get bids, not conferences.

* Reaching 20 victories. As much as that number seems to put teams over the top in the minds of some, the committee does not have a standard.

* Marketability. Just because a team draws or travels well really has no bearing on being selected. TV ads already have been sold and most venues sell out regardless of who’s playing. This isn’t the college football bowl season.