Weak Shall Inherit the Rose Bowl

The Pacific 10 is the top-rated conference in most power rankings, has a stellar 20-4 nonconference mark and is 4-1 against ranked opponents. And this is a problem?

Yes.

Two years removed from the 1999 debacle season that left some wondering whether the league should downgrade to eight-man football, the conference might have become too good for its own good. Sure enough, the Pac-10’s emergence may cost it a shot at the national title in the Jan. 3 Rose Bowl game.

Let’s face facts: In the annoying bowl championship series era, you are much better off being a good team in an average league, witness Kansas State’s title run in 1998--Nebraska’s first year without Tom Osborne; Texas and Oklahoma in rebuilding mode--and Virginia Tech’s title run in 1999 and this season.

Virginia Tech, which has played a suspect nonconference schedule, is now running roughshod through the lackluster Big East, the nation’s sixth-best conference according to this week’s Sagarin ratings.

Virginia Tech figures to be 10-0 when it faces Miami on Dec. 1 in Blacksburg. Win that game and the Hokies are probably Rose Bowl bound. While strength of schedule might cost the Hokies a few points in the BCS computers, it is much more important in the BCS to finish undefeated.

Why? A defeat equates to one point in a team’s BCS point total, a whopping number given last year’s third-place finisher, Miami, missed a shot at the national title game by .32. Could the Pac-10’s strength be its weakness?

“It could,” Oregon State Coach Dennis Erickson said this week. “Obviously, you’re going to have to run the table, you’re going to have to be undefeated to get into that game, and I don’t know that those three teams can.” Those three teams are Washington State (7-0, 4-0), Oregon (6-0, 3-0) and UCLA (5-0, 2-0).

Let the national title elimination tournament begin. Everyone’s already looking ahead to Oregon vs. UCLA on Nov. 10, but not so fast. Before then, Oregon plays at Washington State on Oct. 27 and UCLA visits Pullman on Nov. 3.

“The real sleeper may be Washington State,” Arizona Coach John Mackovic said. “I think they are talented enough on both sides of the ball to challenge them.”

If you believe that a Pac-10 team must go undefeated to get a Rose Bowl berth, the odds are not in the conference’s favor.

Since the Pac-8 expanded to 10 teams in 1978, only seven schools have had undefeated conference records. “It’s very difficult not to lose one in this conference,” Bruin Coach Bob Toledo said.

There also is no guarantee an undefeated Pac-10 champion would go to the title game if there are more than two schools that finished undefeated, especially if that team is Washington State, which has had to claw its way into the polls after starting the season unranked. “All we can do is win as fast as we can,” Coach Mike Price said.

If Miami, Oklahoma and either UCLA, Oregon or Washington State each finish without a loss, it may come down to decimal points in the final BCS standings. Pac-10 coaches say there is no way their league should be left out in that equation.

Unbeaten and not in the Rose Bowl?

“I think we would be shocked, dismayed and outraged,” Oregon Coach Mike Bellotti said. “I think if a team in the Pac-10 goes undefeated, because of the strength of the conference this year, no question they should be in the national championship.”

In the end, though, aren’t there always questions?

Pac Bits

If Notre Dame Coach Bob Davie gets fired, look for Bellotti to show up on the Irish’s short list. Why would Bellotti leave Eugene for South Bend? Well, for one, he loses 11 starters from this year’s team and may think the timing is right for a move.

Then again, Bellotti has a sweet situation in Eugene. USC’s flirtation with him last year earned Bellotti a contract extension through the year 2007.

“I have a long-term contract with the university that I fully intend to live up to,” Bellotti told the Oregonian this week.

Oregon State hasn’t earned back its Sports Illustrated cover stripes yet, but the 2-3 Beavers are playing more like the team people expected them to be. People forget Oregon State nearly lost to Eastern Washington and New Mexico last year before kick-starting its 11-1 season and finishing No. 4. Oregon State is not nearly as good as advertised, but its three losses don’t look as bad when you consider the combined record of the teams it has lost to, Fresno State, UCLA and Washington State, is 18-0.

Price thinks there’s a chance injured tailback David Minnich (knee) could be back for the Cougars’ key Oct. 27 game against Oregon.

What might have been department: Washington State’s Sept. 15 game with Colorado was canceled in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist strikes. To fill the schedule spot, Washington State played Montana State Thursday night in Pullman. Who could have imagined then that Colorado at Washington State would have been a great matchup?

“Oh, we would have beat the heck out of them,” Price jokingly said this week. Actually? “I think it would have been a very competitive game at that time,” Price said.

The cancellation cut both ways. A win against Colorado on Sept. 15 would have given Washington State a quicker boost in the polls. As it is, the Cougars are still only No. 19 in the Associated Press poll despite their 7-0 start.