Playoff Picture Still Out of Focus

One week, the Indianapolis Colts are watching one of their wide receivers break the league record for most catches in a season. The next, they’re dropping the ball against the New York Giants.

One week, the New Orleans Saints are losing an impossible-to-lose home game to the Minnesota Vikings. The next, they’re outdoing themselves by undoing themselves in an unfathomable loss to the worst team in the league, yielding two touchdowns to a 265-pound backup fullback who hadn’t carried the ball in an NFL game before Sunday.

Needing a victory to clinch a berth in the AFC playoffs, the Colts lost at home, 44-27, to the Giants as Amani Toomer had a career-high 204 receiving yards and three second-half touchdowns and rookie tight end Jeremy Shockey caught seven passes for 118 yards. It wasn’t a total debacle for the Colts. They did manage to hold Kerry Collins under 400 yards, five touchdown passes and an 80% completion rate.

Needing a victory to virtually assure a berth in the NFC playoffs, same as they stood a week ago against the Vikings, the Saints lost to the Cincinnati Bengals -- the previously 1-13 Bengals -- in front of a half-empty Paul Brown Stadium, 20-13, as a roly-poly, reserve-squad obscurity named Nick Luchey rushed for 59 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Luchey runs like, and is uncannily built like, a bowling ball, but you could have knocked New Orleans Coach Jim Haslett over with a feather after the ground stopped shaking.

“That wasn’t us out there,” Haslett said.

Likewise, Indianapolis Coach Tony Dungy was left muttering after the Giants -- 6-6 and out of it when December began -- embarrassed his Colts in front of a stunned home crowd, “I don’t know the answer.”

Dungy isn’t alone. After 16 Sundays of you-take-it, no-you-take-it hot-potato football, who can answer definitively about anything involving the Super Bowl tournament field?

In the NFC, Philadelphia (12-3), Green Bay (12-3), Tampa Bay (11-3) and San Francisco (10-5) are in -- but no one has clinched home-field advantage yet, and three teams still have chances to win it, or back into it, in Week 17.

Atlanta defeated Detroit, 36-15, which moved the Falcons to 9-5-1 but decided nothing. Because the Falcons lost at home last week to Seattle, they still haven’t clinched a playoff spot, and still could miss the postseason if they lose to Cleveland and the Saints (9-6) and the Giants (9-6) win their final games against Carolina and Philadelphia.

In the AFC, Oakland (10-5) and Tennessee (10-5) are in, both clinching division titles Sunday. The Raiders swept Mike Shanahan’s Denver Broncos, 28-16, to win the AFC West championship and the Titans, with no players selected to the Pro Bowl, won for the ninth time in 10 games, 28-10 over Jacksonville, to claim the AFC South title.

But neither team has wrapped up the AFC’s home-field advantage. And neither team knows who will join them in the six-team AFC playoff field after Miami’s 20-17 upset loss to Minnesota on Saturday, Indianapolis’ loss to the Giants and New England’s 30-17 loss to the New York Jets on Sunday night.

After the Raiders and the Titans, 10 teams enter the last week of the regular season scrambling for the four remaining AFC playoff berths.

Pittsburgh (8-5-1) can clinch the AFC North championship with a win at Tampa Bay tonight or a home victory against Baltimore in its finale.

Cleveland (8-7), which improved its road record to 6-2 with a 14-13 victory at Baltimore, can still win the AFC North title if the Browns beat Atlanta and the Steelers finish 0-2.

Miami (9-6) can win the AFC East championship by beating the Patriots in New England -- but the Dolphins couldn’t beat the Vikings in Minnesota and are 2-5 on the road.

New England (8-7) can win the AFC East if the Patriots beat the Dolphins and the Jets lose to Green Bay.

The Jets (8-7) can win the AFC East if they beat Green Bay and New England beats Miami, forging a three-way tie at 9-7. Since the three teams would all be 1-1 in head-to-head games, they would move to the second tiebreaker, record within the division, which would eliminate the Dolphins and send the Jets and Patriots to the third tiebreaker, record against common opponents. There, the Jets would edge the Patriots, 8-4 to 7-5.

Indianapolis (9-6) can earn a wild card by beating Jacksonville.

By losing at Kansas City, 24-22, San Diego dropped into a three-way tie for second place in the AFC West at 8-7 with the Chiefs and Broncos. All three remain in contention for a wild card, depending on the outcomes of their final regular-season games: Seattle at San Diego, Kansas City at Oakland, Arizona at Denver.

Also still mathematically possible: Eight teams -- half the AFC -- could finish 9-7, with the Steelers 8-7-1. Should that happen, it is believed the first three tiebreakers would be a) penalty kicks, b) blind straw draw and c) pistols at dawn.

Amid this insanity, a few individuals managed to lift themselves above the rabble Sunday.

Oakland quarterback Rich Gannon broke Warren Moon’s single-season completion record with 411, although he managed only 201 yards against Denver and now needs 475 in his last game to break Dan Marino’s single-season yardage record. The Raiders play host to the Chiefs in that one, so Gannon still has a fighting chance.

Indianapolis wide receiver Marvin Harrison, who set the single-season receptions record last week, caught 10 more passes to move the new mark to 137. If he had caught 10 more, the Colts might have pushed the Giants into overtime.

Tennessee quarterback Steve McNair joined Steve Young, Randall Cunningham, John Elway and Fran Tarkenton as the only quarterbacks to pass for 18,000 yards and rush for 3,000 during their NFL careers.

And, on a somewhat dubious note, Houston quarterback David Carr broke Cunningham’s 16-year-old record for most times sacked in a regular season, Bruce Smith wrapping his arms around Carr for historic sack No. 73 during the Texans’ 26-10 loss at Washington.

At least young Carr can hold his head up, knowing that he was victimized by a future Hall of Famer at the expense of a rag-tag expansion-year offensive line. Unlike the Colts and the Saints, who stepped onto the field with everything to gain and promptly sacked themselves.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.