Dungy Doesn’t Get the Point on Offense

Tony Dungy of the Indianapolis Colts, as a first-year AFC coach, is doing the same things that got him feared and then fired in Tampa, an NFC town.

Dungy has risen to notoriety as a leader whose teams play strong, creative defense -- but no offense.

Thus Dungy’s strength, defense, is at the same time his weakness. He seems to reason that he can build a defensive team so sound that he doesn’t need an offense.

Again this year, he’s using a good offensive team only as a weapon to help his defense. At Indianapolis, the role of his quarterback, Peyton Manning, is the same as it was for Tampa Bay quarterback Shaun King:

* Run time off the clock with first-down ground plays and other ball-control snaps.

* Do not attack with first-down passes or other big plays.

One of the NFL’s brightest coaches, Dungy would lead them all if only he’d come up as an offensive expert instead of a defensive genius.

You don’t win pro championships Dungy’s way.

Four Leaders

So the Colts are out of the Super Bowl race -- not mathematically, maybe, but nonetheless certainly -- though they’re equipped with a coveted quarterback and a record-breaking receiver, Marvin Harrison, and one of the best running backs, Edgerrin James. So who leads the Super Bowl fight? Well, nobody.

Who’ll be there? That’s easier. Going into the last regular-season week of 2002 -- in a league that’s become remarkable for parity -- four teams stand out, if barely.

The NFC will be represented in Super Bowl XXXVII by the Tampa Bay-Green Bay winner.

The AFC will be there with the Tennessee-Oakland winner.

The parity factor could turn up somebody else, but that’s not likely.

Eagles Favored

Of the NFC’s four division champions -- San Francisco, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Green Bay -- no team figures to win the conference title.

The 49ers don’t play well east of San Francisco.

The Eagles, the consensus Las Vegas favorite, alternated three quarterbacks in winning the NFC East title, but that won’t work in the playoffs.

The Buccaneers can win at Tampa Bay but not at Green Bay.

The Packers can win at Green Bay but not Tampa Bay.

In the AFC, only one question remains: Will it be battle-tested Tennessee or Oakland’s great passing team?

The two other division champions, Pittsburgh and the team that wins in the AFC East, don’t count.

In a year of intense parity, a wild-card winner could emerge as champion, but that’s not likely.

He’s Like Elway

A team that should be there, one would suppose, is Indianapolis with Manning, Harrison and Dungy’s defense. But, all year, Manning has had to struggle in almost every second half for an absurd reason:

Each week, his coaches spend the first half playing ultra-conservative offense. They insist on running on first-down plays, and otherwise take no interesting chances.

Repeatedly this season, Manning has been in a second-half comeback mode for the same reason that John Elway set so many comeback records at Denver in the old days:

The first Denver coach Elway had, Dan Reeves, was -- and at Atlanta remains -- nearly as conservative as Dungy.

There’s no way that Elway would be remembered as a great second-half comeback quarterback if, week in and out, Reeves had let him play in the first half.

And precisely the same is true of Manning and Dungy at Indianapolis.

In last Sunday’s game, for example, Dungy fell behind at the half, 10-3, only because of rookie Jeremy Shockey’s greatness at tight end for the New York Giants.

Even so, Dungy and Manning were poised to make a typical comeback until, on the first play of the second half, New York Coach Jim Fassel shot them down with the NFL’s play of the day, an exquisitely timed flea-flicker pass for a touchdown.

That’s the problem with trying to win with defense alone. There’s no way for a good defensive team to make a successful defense against a good offense on every play.

At Denver, despite Reeves’ satisfactory defensive team, Elway won the Super Bowl only after he got a passing coach, Mike Shanahan.

Typical Colt Series

Last week’s Colt-Giant game will be remembered -- unless the Colts somehow change direction next month -- as the one that ruined Dungy’s first year at Indianapolis.

But it wasn’t second-half ineptness by Manning that beat the Colts, for, after the flea-flicker play, the Giants won easily by simply changing their defensive priorities to stop Manning’s passing instead of James’ running.

The game had been lost in the first half by Dungy’s incredibly unimaginative offense, which was characteristic of all Dungy’s first-half offenses.

At one point, after the Colts had recovered a fumble on the New York six-yard line, they ran on first down, ran it again on second down, and ran it again on third down -- thereby telling the league, once more, how a good coach manages to lose with Manning.

On fourth down, they kicked the field goal that they might just as well have kicked on first down.

Best Matchup

The most entertaining Super Bowl matchup this time might be Oakland-Tampa Bay. It would pit new Raider Coach Bill Callahan against last year’s Raider coach, Jon Gruden, now at Tampa.

Both men are former college quarterbacks who, in the NFL, came up in the West Coast offense, the system originated by San Francisco hall-of-famer Bill Walsh.

As you can see every Sunday, the West Coast is a system in which the coach can lean in either direction -- either running or passing on critical downs, particularly first down.

And at Tampa, Gruden leans toward running plays -- as he did last season at Oakland -- whereas Callahan prefers to throw.

In fact, with mature quarterback Rich Gannon in charge, Callahan’s team this year has, for long stretches of some games, thrown on every down.

That has given the Raiders the advantage over most opponents this fall, though against Tampa they would be passing into the NFL’s most skilled defense -- Dungy’s old defense -- exactly the one he built in his time there, with almost exactly the same players.

The question of a Gruden-Callahan Super Bowl would revolve around pass-play football.

How well would Tampa throw it with Brad Johnson at quarterback but minus a running-play threat?

How well would Oakland throw it with able short-passer Gannon focusing on an even quicker release than usual?

Though the Raiders are more experienced -- and experience counts in Super Bowl competition -- Gruden would be favored.

He’s Like Bradshaw

After Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick beat Minnesota on Dec. 1 with a long run to fix his record as an NFL starter at 7-1-1, he was predictably stopped by Tampa Bay, and then unpredictably stopped by Seattle before his up-and-down performance last Sunday in a 36-15 victory over Detroit.

That set up one of today’s big games: Atlanta (9-5-1) at Cleveland (8-7) in an interconference headliner with a wild-card coloring.

If Vick is one of the great NFL players of all time, as some people reckon, why isn’t he breezing to, at least, wild-card recognition?

The best answer is that, most of the time this season, in his first year as an NFL starter, Vick is showing NFL people what he can do -- not what he’s going to do.

In this respect, he is much like a hall-of-fame quarterback of yesteryear, Terry Bradshaw, who helped deliver four Super Bowl titles to Pittsburgh from 1975-80.

It was evident in his first game as an exhibition starter that Bradshaw was an extremely talented quarterback.

Only later did it become known that Bradshaw had been playing on instincts alone that night, totally disregarding the Steeler game plan because he didn’t know how to follow it.

Even after Bradshaw learned to read a game plan, he didn’t settle in as Pittsburgh’s regular-season starter for several years.

This whole season has been like that for Vick. Count on it: He’s the all-time run-pass quarterback even though he can’t prove it yet.

Worse luck, it’s Vick who now has the conservative coach who once held back Elway.

He Needs Work

The Rams lost for the first time with quarterback Marc Bulger last week when two Seattle Seahawks made a Bulger sandwich and put him in the hospital with a back injury.

The play was a reminder that in the off-season ahead, Bulger needs the kind of physical work that will strengthen his upper body.

He came into the NFL with a frame that needs another 20 pounds, at least, on top of his listed 215, if he’s to be strong enough for pro football.

In an ideal world, Bulger would put on at least 15 pounds in the next 12 months and another 15 pounds a year later.

It’s a great irony for Ram Coach Mike Martz that he has created the league’s best two passers on a substructure of frailness.

No. 1 Kurt Warner isn’t quite quick enough.

No. 2 Bulger, who looks to be ahead of even Warner as a passer, isn’t quite strong enough.

Seven Guesses

Atlanta to win over Cleveland by five at Browns Stadium. If the Falcons play this one not to lose, they’ll lose.

Tampa Bay to win over Chicago by six on Red Grange’s old field at Champaign. Great cold-weather experience for Buccaneers, in case they have to visit Green Bay later.

Green Bay over New York Jets by one at East Rutherford, N.J. The Jets might be starting to fly with Chad Pennington, who, at home, could beat almost any team but Green Bay this week.

New England over Miami by one at Foxboro. Patriot passer Tom Brady is short on wide receivers but the Dolphins are short on road wins.

Indianapolis over Jacksonville by one at the RCA Dome. Peyton Manning won’t want to lose this one, and the Jaguars might not care.

Ohio State over Miami by a touchdown in the Fiesta Bowl. Never pick against an undefeated Big Ten team in a bowl game.

Oklahoma over Washington State by a touchdown in the Rose Bowl. One-two in college football this season are USC and Oklahoma.