THE MATCHUPS

RAM PASS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOT PASS DEFENSE

Leave it to Bill Belichick to devise a scheme to at least slow down the Rams’ “Greatest Show on Earth.” In a 24-17 Ram victory at New England on Nov. 18, Belichick had as many as seven players drop into zone coverage. That format was less than successful: Kurt Warner torched the Patriots for 401 yards and three touchdowns. Blitzing Warner won’t work either; his Arena League experience taught him to check off multiple receivers and hit open seams with accuracy in a matter of seconds. If the Patriots don’t find a way to disguise coverages, disrupt timing and get to Warner with their linemen, Ram receivers Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Az-Zahir Hakim and Ricky Proehl will turn this game into a track meet.

EDGE: Rams

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RAM RUN OFFENSE VS. PATRIOT RUN DEFENSE

Patriot defensive tackles Brandon Mitchell and Richard Seymour were the keys to bottling up the Steelers’ league-leading running game last week, allowing only 58 yards. However, that won’t be effective against the multidimensional Rams because Marshall Faulk isn’t a hammer inside. Faulk gains most of his yards off tackle and on play action. New England could fill gaps by using linebackers as ends in a 5-2 alignment, but that would leave only four men in coverage, which is asking for big trouble.

EDGE: Rams

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PATRIOT PASS OFFENSE VS. RAM PASS DEFENSE

Don’t be surprised to see Drew Bledsoe warming up on the sideline should starter Tom Brady falter early. If the Patriots fall behind, only the strong-armed Bledsoe has the timing and command to sting the Rams’ soft coverage with deeper passes. Under Brady, New England’s passing game is conservative and accurate, often allowing opposing defenses to dictate the low-risk short-to-intermediate routes to receivers Troy Brown and David Patten. Running backs J.R. Redmond and Kevin Faulk provide reliable short-range options.

EDGE: Rams

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PATRIOT RUN OFFENSE VS. RAM RUN DEFENSE

If New England has one advantage over St. Louis it is in its inside running game. Offensive linemen Joe Andruzzi and Mike Compton are bulldozers, outweighing their Ram counterparts, defensive tackle Jeff Zgonina and Brian Young. Antowain Smith has the ability to grind out valuable yards and keep the Ram offense off the field as long as the score is close. Should the Rams take a big lead, Smith will be shelved in favor of the passing game.

EDGE: Patriots

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SPECIAL TEAMS

The Patriots make the most of their outstanding special teams, which were responsible for the margin of victory in playoff wins over the Raiders and Steelers. New England excels at keeping the game close and then winning on a big turnover or special teams play. The Rams have had their trouble in kickoff and punt coverage, and Brown is tough to stop on returns.

EDGE: Patriots

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COACHING

Mike Martz and Belichick are two of the most creative coaches in the game. Both are adept at exploiting weaknesses by disguising their intentions until the very last moment. The difference here will be the level of talent. Martz is pitting his thoroughbreds against Belichick’s gutsy quarter horses.

EDGE: Rams

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INTANGIBLES

Lack of speed will hurt the Patriot secondary. St. Louis will create mismatches by flooding zones with more than one receiver. There isn’t a linebacker in the NFL who can cover Faulk one-on-one. The Rams’ familiarity with the Superdome and its artificial surface puts the game’s outcome heavily in their favor.

EDGE: Rams

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THE PICK

St. Louis in a blowout.

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Today’s Officials

(tabular data not included)

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Roy Jurgens