Triple Jeopardy

The computer man from Tustin was having a mid-evening drink at the lobby bar of a Manhattan hotel.

The mention of today’s Belmont Stakes jogged his memory slightly.

“Oh, yeah, that race,” he said. “That’s the one that white-haired guy’s got something to do with, isn’t it?”

This is the reality for all of racing: Even though a record crowd of more than 85,000 may attend the Belmont as War Emblem and trainer Bob Baffert--he’s the white-haired guy--shoot for the first Triple Crown sweep since Affirmed in 1978, the time-warped sport still operates in a vacuum.

A victim of its own indifference to TV exposure about a generation ago, and now struggling to retain a dwindling gambling niche in the face of competition from lotteries and riverboats and Native American casinos, racing seldom succeeds in capturing the spotlight. When Secretariat became the ninth of 11 Triple Crown champions by winning the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont in 1973, he was an all-around cover boy, his picture splashed on the front of Time and Newsweek as well as the expected sports publications.

A more immediate litmus test for racing is that Sports Illustrated hasn’t devoted a cover to a horse winning a race since Sunny’s Halo’s Derby victory 19 years ago. Don’t bet on a victorious War Emblem making that magazine’s cover this time, either. The Mike Tyson-Lennox Lewis fight tonight in Memphis, Tenn., has more of a cover smell to it.

No greater champion of racing than trainer Wayne Lukas, who has won 13 Triple Crown races, questions whether War Emblem can do a bootstrap number on the sport.

“You could get on almost any airplane, walk up and down the aisle and ask people about War Emblem, and not 10% would be able to tell you who he is,” Lukas said.

If Lukas, who will try to stop War Emblem with Proud Citizen, a colt who ate the winner’s dust in the Derby and Preakness, is exaggerating, he’s still not far off.

“The sporting public is very callous,” he said. “The top events have a way of coming and going in a hurry, because there’s such a glut of them. One result comes in, then everybody says, ‘That was fun,’ but then in the next breath they’re saying, ‘What’s for tomorrow?’ ”

Because of what happened 20 miles from Belmont Park last September, there has been a surfeit of psychobabble about whether racing needs a Triple Crown winner owned by a cocky, oil-rich Saudi Arabian prince who seems to sneer back the answer whenever a tough question is posed.

“I just hope the horse wins because we need another Triple Crown champion out there,” said Karen Taylor, one of the owners of Seattle Slew, the 1977 champion who died on May 7.

This is the first time since Sir Barton scored the first Triple Crown sweep in 1919 that none of the champions are alive.

“We need another star,” Taylor said, her eyes welling up once more at the thought of losing Seattle Slew. “We need that big horse to put back on a pedestal.”

Baffert makes regular attempts at depersonalizing the moment.

“This is not about the owner, the trainer, or even the jockey,” he said. “It’s about the horse.”

The raw numbers are not encouraging. According to the Jockey Club, the racing handle of $14.55 billion last year was a record, but the growth rate was only 1.6%, the smallest increase in eight years. There were 60,738 races run, a drop of about 10,000 since 1994. Foal crops have shrunk dramatically. The 2000 group had an estimated 36,700 registrations, down almost 8,000 from 10 years earlier.

War Emblem is a bona fide needle-in-the-haystack story, a horse who couldn’t be sold as a yearling, a last-minute purchase by Prince Ahmed bin Salman who mushroomed into a Triple Crown powerhouse. The NBC telecasts of the Derby and Preakness, however, did not generate exceptional ratings. War Emblem was an afterthought for many observers at Churchill Downs, where the Derby ratings sank 12% from the previous year. The Preakness ratings were 2% better than in 2001.

Barry Schwartz, chairman of the New York Racing Assn., which runs Belmont Park, said War Emblem’s marketing potential will hinge on how much the horse runs after the Triple Crown.

“If he comes back in races like the Travers [at the NYRA’s Saratoga in August], then the ball will keep rolling,” Schwartz said.

That possibility is remote. Last year, the prince and Baffert campaigned Point Given, who danced some more dances after winning the Preakness and Belmont. By August, Point Given was injured, his career over. The same handlers of War Emblem are not likely to over-race this lean colt with marginal legs.

Horse owner Bob Lewis would prefer to see the industry’s glass as half full. On the Triple Crown sidelines this year, Lewis has previously raced two Triple Crown wannabes--Silver Charm and Charismatic, who were beaten in the Belmont in 1997 and 1999.

“We don’t have a [Triple Crown] winner alive,” Lewis said during a chat Friday morning at Lukas’ barn. “It would be good if we could pick up on that again. It would be a great stimulus and give the sport some positive vibes. I think racing is getting stronger again. Look at how many people Charismatic brought out [a Belmont record of 85,818] when he ran here. The [horse] sales to me seem to be on the upswing. I think there’s a broader segment of the population buying horses these days. A lot of new blood is coming into the game.”

The book written by Laura Hillenbrand, “Seabiscuit: An American Legend,” has been a publishing phenomenon. More than 600,000 copies have been sold and the story is being made into a major movie. Several other racing books have followed. Baffert is poised while his publisher, awaiting today’s result, considers a revision of the trainer’s 1999 autobiography.

Like the rest of racing, though, that might be a tough sell.

“No question, the connections of War Emblem come with a stigma,” Lukas said. “The guy who owns the horse is a deep-pocketed Saudi. And every chance he gets, the guy who trains him is Barnum and Baileying it all over the place.”

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War Emblem had a scare during a morning gallop on a sloppy track Friday. One of trainer Bill Mott’s horses spooked and got in War Emblem’s way, but Mick Jenner, who was aboard the Derby-Preakness winner, steered him to the outside and out of danger.

“Mick’s a seasoned gallop boy,” Baffert said. “He saw it coming and took the fast lane.”

Despite almost two inches of overnight rain Thursday and Friday, Belmont officials are promising a fast track for today, when the weather is supposed to be dry with temperatures in the low 70s.... The track was wet-fast Friday as You won the $250,000 Acorn for 3-year-old fillies by 7 1/4 lengths. Trainer Bobby Frankel’s horse, ridden by Jerry Bailey, finished the mile in 1:34 and paid $5. Willa On The Move ran second, 4 3/4 lengths ahead of favored Bella Bellucci. The field was cut to five with the scratch of Proper Gamble.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOXES)

*--* The Facts Where: Belmont Park, New York Distance: 1 1/2 miles When: Today, post time 3:10 p.m. PDT TV: Channel 4, coverage begins at 2 p.m Favorite: War Emblem, even money Field: 11 3-year-olds 2001 Winner: Point Given Last Triple Crown Winner: Affirmed, 1978 Of note: Eleven horses have won the Triple Crown and 17 have failed or didn’t run at Belmont after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

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*--* Triple Check The 3-year-olds who have won racing’s Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes): YEAR HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER 1919 Sir Barton John Loftus H.G. Bedwell 1930 Gallant Fox Earl Sande Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons 1935 Omaha William Saunders Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons 1937 War Admiral Charles Kurtsinger George Conway 1941 Whirlaway Eddie Arcaro Ben Jones 1943 Count Fleet John Longden Don Cameron 1946 Assault Warren Mehrtens Max Hirsch 1948 Citation Eddie Arcaro Jimmy Jones 1973 Secretariat Ron Turcotte Lucien Laurin 1977 Seattle Slew Jean Cruguet Billy Turner 1978 Affirmed Steve Cauthen Laz Barrera

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*--* Tr ip le Lo ss Th e wi nn er s of th e Ke nt uc ky De rb y an d Pr ea kn es s St ak es wh o we re un ab le to co mp le te th e Tr ip le Cr ow n: YE HORSE BELMONT FINISH WINNER AR 19 Burgoo King Did not make trip to New York 32 19 Bold Venture Did not make trip to New York 36 19 Pensive Second Bounding Home 44 19 Tim Tam Second Cavan 58 19 Carry Back Seventh Sherluck 61 19 Northern Dancer Third Quadrangle 64 19 Kauai King Fourth Amberoid 66 19 Forward Pass Second Stage Door Johnny 68 19 Majestic Prince Second Arts And Letters 69 19 Canonero II Fourth Pass Catcher 71 19 Spectacular Bid Third Coastal 79 19 Pleasant Colony Third Summing 81 19 Alysheba Fourth Bet Twice 87 19 Sunday Silence Second Easy Goer 89 19 Silver Charm Second Touch Gold 97 19 Real Quiet Second Victory Gallop 98 19 Charismatic Third Lemon Drop Kid 99

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