Tiger Not Only Beating Field, He’s Holding Off the Law of Averages

To hear it told around here, Tiger Woods is unbeatable. And that was Thursday night.

Everybody who knew a golf ball was round was talking about it. Those poor players, just turn in the courtesy cars, hop on the highway, head for the airport. Thank you for playing our game and see you at the Hartford Open.

Common knowledge--and there’s a dangerous phrase in golf--was that the Open was so far over, you couldn’t even see it anymore. All you had to do was think about Tiger’s game, yes, that would be the ultimate validation. He hits it higher, farther, straighter, softer, harder and better than anyone else. They should have engraved his name on the trophy before the weekend.

The truth is, Tiger is the greatest closer in golf, a trait that ought to come in handy for him today, because he might actually need it.

The record shows he has been the 54-hole leader 25 other times in PGA Tour events and won 23. He has been in the lead four times at the halfway point of majors and won them all. He has been the leader seven times going into the last round of a major and won them all.

Tiger might even do it an eighth time today at Bethpage Black, where they’re playing the People’s Open and the place where the People’s Champion is winning again.

His excellence is not so monotonous as simply understood. A Woods victory is implied every time he shows up. What’s more, no one has risen up from the masses, stood right there with him on the tee and then knocked him off his perch.

Because he has won five of the last eight majors, Woods makes winning them look so easy that there is now a clear notion that he’s destined to win every time. That’s probably why so many people felt comfortable declaring the Open closed for everyone but Woods so early.

Saturday was far from Woods’ greatest day in the third round at the Black Course, where he struggled to an even-par 70 yet still managed to increase his lead. Woods is four shots ahead of Sergio Garcia (he was three ahead of Padraig Harrington after 36 holes), but the margin could have been doubled if Tiger had put the ball closer to the hole and made a few putts that were begging to go in and stayed out instead.

If Woods somehow doesn’t close the deal, he’s going to remember what happened Saturday at the par-five 13th--and Tiger eats par-fives for snacks. At the 13th, Woods stood over a long eagle putt and wound up having to steer in a three-footer just to save par.

It wasn’t as if there weren’t any birdies out there, because the guys chasing him had no trouble finding them. Maybe they were just hiding from Woods, who has bagged his limit so many times before.

Woods knew he didn’t play his best, saying he simply hung around, fought as hard as he could and maintained his cool.

Anyway, what’s the big deal when he plays only so-so and still manages to increase his lead from three shots to four?

Well, maybe nothing. Then again, golf has shown us that even the greatest players of their generation don’t always win every major. History is full of assorted tales of tragedy for some of golf’s biggest heroes.

All you have to do is remember that one of the greatest of them all, Ben Hogan, lost the 1955 U.S. Open to Jack Fleck in an 18-hole playoff.

Remember that Arnold Palmer lost the U.S. Open three times in playoffs. He lost to Jack Nicklaus in 1962 at Oakmont, he lost to Julius Boros in 1963 at the Country Club and he lost to Billy Casper in 1966 at the Olympic Club. In that one, Palmer blew a six-shot lead with six holes to go.

We know that Tiger’s idol is Nicklaus, largely for his 18 major championship titles, more than anyone who ever played golf. But Nicklaus endured his share of heartbreak. He was second in 18 other majors. One of them was in the 1971 U.S. Open at Merion, where Lee Trevino beat him in a playoff. Eleven years later at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Tom Watson chipped in at the 71st hole and birdied the 72nd hole to beat him by two shots.

Sometimes, even the greatest are simply outplayed, which is what happened to Nicklaus in the 1977 British Open at Turnberry. Watson, paired with Nicklaus the last two days, turned in rounds of 65-65 and beat Jack by a shot.

If it happened to the greatest players of their generations, it’s going to happen to Woods too. But first, somebody is going to have to step up and challenge him, and that hasn’t happened yet. It certainly didn’t happen at the Masters, where Woods all but coasted on the last day when no one put enough heat on him to wilt his swoosh.

No, Woods isn’t going to win every major, no matter what the consensus is, even after what happened at Bethpage Black after only the first day. Everyone should back off, appreciate Tiger’s skills and applaud the players trying to have the same kind of day that he already has enjoyed so many times.

Tiger is the best player in the world, but he’s going to lose a major, one that he should have had locked up ... maybe not today, but sometime. All the great ones do.