Politics rising

The Grammys, the record industry’s annual funfest, is normally a joyful celebration that seduces us with lavishly choreographed numbers by some of the most celebrated acts of the day -- a contingent led tonight by such figures as Bruce Springsteen, Eminem and Norah Jones.

The show also teases us with the suspense of wondering who will win the Grammys in myriad categories, from pop and rock to hip-hop and jazz (and who will be embarrassingly overlooked).

But the drama tonight won’t be limited to the opening of the envelopes -- not at a moment when everyone is talking about Iraq.

Bruce Springsteen is the overwhelming favorite to win album of the year for “The Rising,” a heartfelt reflection on the nation’s psyche in the weeks after Sept. 11.

That victory alone would make for memorable viewing, especially when the ceremony -- returning to New York after five years in Los Angeles -- will be held at Madison Square Garden, a short cab ride from the World Trade Center towers that were destroyed in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attack.

Beyond the emotion of that indelible context, there will be real tension if Springsteen wins, as he steps to the podium and we wait to see whether he will simply accept the statuette or share his thoughts about the approaching war.

The guess here is that he will comment on the nation’s state, partly to make sure “The Rising” isn’t seen as simply a flag-waving exercise, the same way some listeners mistakenly saw 1984’s “Born in the U.S.A.”

If Springsteen does express his views, not everyone will be pleased.

Some believe award show podiums should be politics-free zones. Yet much of the most compelling pop music of the last half-century, from Bob Dylan and Curtis Mayfield to the Beatles and U2, has dealt with social issues, and it is unreasonable to expect artists to gag themselves when being saluted for that music.

Pop music has been relatively timid in its response to Sept. 11, though Springsteen, Alan Jackson and Steve Earle won Grammy nominations this year for their 9/11-related works. The Iraq crisis will probably lead to wider pop response -- as musicians join playwrights, actors and poets in amplifying the national debate.

Political discourse at the Grammys wouldn’t be such uncharted territory if the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences hadn’t tended to be so cool to challenging artists, such as Dylan and Springsteen, who merged rock with the socially conscious tradition of folk music.

Imagine what Dylan might have said if he had stepped to the podium to accept an award for “Blowin’ in the Wind” during the height of the civil rights movement in this country or what John Fogerty might have told us if honored for “Who’ll Stop the Rain” during the Vietnam War.

More open to mavericks

The Grammy brain trust has made great strides in recent years in trying to make the Grammy process more responsive to maverick young voices. As part of a mass membership drive during the ‘90s, the Grammy leaders recruited younger members who better respected the rock and hip-hop traditions.

As the academy membership expanded to include younger and more progressive music professionals, these new voters frequently reached out to veteran artists in belated tribute. To varying degrees, best album or best record victories for Eric Clapton (1993 and 1997), Dylan (1998), Santana (2000) and Steely Dan (2001) were all makeup calls -- the sports term used when referees go out of their way to give a team a favorable call to compensate for blowing a previous one.

One reason Springsteen is the favorite for album of the year tonight is that many voters are believed to want to honor him for his body of work.

The New Jersey rocker has made some of the most acclaimed albums of the modern pop era, from 1975’s “Born to Run” and 1978’s “Darkness on the Edge of Town” to 1982’s “Nebraska” and 1987’s “Tunnel of Love.”

But only one of his previous collections -- 1984’s mega-seller “Born in the U.S.A.” -- received a best album nomination. In a major Grammy embarrassment, it lost to Lionel Richie’s “Can’t Slow Down.”

Eminem may also benefit from the makeup call syndrome in the record of the year competition, the evening’s second most prestigious award. The immensely gifted rapper’s “The Marshall Mathers LP” deserved the best album award in 2001, but many Grammy voters apparently felt too uneasy about its crude and violent imagery to give him the industry’s highest honor.

The colorful rapper goes into tonight’s ceremony with a far more accessible profile, thanks to his underdog role in the much admired film “8 Mile” and because of the widespread support he received from other artists during the 2001 Grammy debate over his merits. The most dramatic endorsement came when Elton John, who is gay, performed with Eminem on the Grammy telecast that year -- his rebuff of arguments that Eminem’s music is homophobic.

But even the makeup factor may not be enough to push Eminem’s catchy “Without Me” past Jones’ stylish, understated “Don’t Know Why” in the record of the year voting. That race shapes up as the most competitive of the night among the major categories.

Regardless of who wins that Grammy, Springsteen, Eminem and Jones should each walk away with an armful of Grammys -- possibly 10 among them.

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45th annual Grammy Awards telecast

When: Tonight on CBS from 8 to 11:30 p.m.

Performers: Ashanti, Coldplay, Dixie Chicks, Eminem, Faith Hill, Norah Jones, Avril Lavigne, Nelly, Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band, James Taylor and others.

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The heavy hitters

Here are thoughts on some of this year’s most interesting matchups. (The eligibility period for the entries was Oct. 1, 2001, to Sept. 30, 2002.)

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Album of the Year

The nominees:

The Dixie Chicks: “Home”

Eminem: “The Eminem Show”

Norah Jones: “Come Away With Me”

Nelly: “Nellyville”

Bruce Springsteen: “The Rising”

A Springsteen victory would be one of the most dramatic Grammy moments since 1982, when John Lennon and Yoko Ono’s “Double Fantasy” was named best album and Ono accepted the award at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles for her late husband.

Springsteen lives in Monmouth County, N.J., once within sight of the twin towers, and one of the album’s most moving songs, “Empty Sky,” spoke about the unsettling feeling of looking at the blank space in the hours after the Sept. 11 tragedy.

In any other year, Eminem, whose latest album showed increased imagination and craft, and Jones, a wonderfully graceful and restrained pop singer, might have been the favorites in this category. Indeed, the pick here is “The Eminem Show,” an album with remarkable originality and range -- music filled with humor, commentary, insight and even heartache. But this is Springsteen’s year. “The Rising” has some generic, feel-good songs, but it remains a brave and haunting work.

Likely winner: “The Rising”

Most deserving album: “The Eminem Show”

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Record of the Year

The nominees:

Vanessa Carlton: “A Thousand Miles”

Eminem: “Without Me”

Norah Jones: “Don’t Know Why”

Nelly featuring Kelly Rowland: “Dilemma”

Nickelback: “How You Remind Me”

The Grammys didn’t always stumble from following their mainstream bestseller instincts. Choices for best album hold up well when great mainstream artists, such as Stevie Wonder and Paul Simon, produce solid works. The problem is that many of the bestsellers honored for best album or record, from the Captain & Tennille to Christopher Cross, were quite ordinary.

Jones is in the best of the mainstream bestseller tradition. Her stylish debut album was one of the year’s most acclaimed works and has sold almost 3.5 million copies. She was also the Cinderella story of pop, a singer with talent and taste in an age when both are in short supply.

But Eminem deserves the nod here. He didn’t just make the best single record of 2002 -- he made the three best (though his anthem-like “Lose Yourself” was released after the Sept. 30 cutoff date). “Without Me” was pure entertainment, a bratty, sing-song boast about how empty the pop world would have been if he hadn’t come along. By contrast, “Cleaning Out My Closet” was a look at the anguish of childhood isolation as stark as John Lennon’s primal, urgent first solo album.

The two records are so strong that it would have been hard for voters to choose between them, so Eminem’s record company, Interscope, was smart to enter just one in the Grammy competition to avoid splitting the vote.

Likely winner and most deserving: Eminem

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Best New Artist

The nominees:

Ashanti

Michelle Branch

Norah Jones

Avril Lavigne

John Mayer

Talk about boos -- you should hear plenty if Jones doesn’t win in this category. Without the 23-year-old New York native in the field, Lavigne would be the strongest candidate -- as suggested by the best pop album nomination (“Let Go”) and best song nomination (“Complicated”). Her “Sk8er Boi” single was one of the guilty pop pleasures of the year, but she’s no match for Jones. Mayer is another singer-songwriter with considerable support, but he, too, seems far from Jones’ class.

Most likely and most deserving: Norah Jones

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Song of the Year

The nominees:

Avril Lavigne & the Matrix: “Complicated”

Jesse Harris: “Don’t Know Why”

Bruce Springsteen: “The Rising”

Vanessa Carlton: “A Thousand Miles”

Alan Jackson: “Where Were You (When the World Stopped Turning)”

“The Rising,” with its ambitious sweep, is the standout, but it may be in trouble because Jackson’s “Where Were You (When the World Stopped Turning)” also is a Sept. 11 sentiment, and they could end up splitting the vote. If so, the victory would go to Harris’ “Don’t Know Why,” though the impact of the record had more to do with Jones’ exquisite vocal than the actual song itself.

Most likely winner: “Don’t Know Why”

Most deserving: “The Rising”

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Robert Hilburn, The Times’ pop music critic, can be reached at robert.hilburn@latimes.com