It’s Anybody’s Ballgame in the Rugged ACC Race

Despite Wednesday night’s loss at Duke that knocked Maryland out of first place in the ACC, Terrapin Coach Gary Williams says his team is in good shape to repeat its conference regular season title.

With a little more than two weeks remaining, the conference race is muddled. Maryland is one-half game behind Wake Forest, tied with Duke for second place and one-half game ahead of North Carolina State.

“The league has been crazy all year -- you don’t know who is going to win,” Williams said. “We do know we’re capable, and we’ve put ourselves in position to win the league. Losing four starters from last year, I kind of feel good about that. ... I like our position.”

Perhaps the only constant this season has been the ability of teams to win at home. The conference’s top four teams have combined for one home loss in ACC play, Maryland’s loss to Virginia.

“Where people play is just going to be extremely important,” television analyst Dan Bonner said.

In this area, no team has a clear advantage. Maryland and Duke have two home games and two road games remaining in conference play. N.C. State plays twice at home and three times on the road. Wake Forest might have a slight edge with three of its remaining five games at home.

There have been many discussions about parity or balance in the conference, but Bonner attributes it to the lack of a dominant team.

“We have become so accustomed to the fact that for the past 15 years there has been a dominant team in the ACC and that simply isn’t true,” he said. “I don’t think there is anybody who has enough players that they’re going to dominate games. One of the things I think it means is that the tournament ought to be a lot of fun, playing on a court most people would concede is a neutral court.”

The ACC tournament, which will begin March 13, is in Greensboro, N.C.

Breaking down the teams:

Maryland: ACC road victories have been a precious commodity this season, but Maryland has three, matching Wake Forest for the most. And with back-to-back Sunday night games at N.C. State and at Virginia to close the season, continuing its success on the road is critical.

The Terrapins’ schedule might be suited for a run to the league title given their recent success against remaining opponents. They have won four of their past five home games against North Carolina and 10 in a row overall against Clemson. Maryland has won 17 of its past 20 games against N.C. State and eight of its past 11 against Virginia. The Terrapins also have won 30 of their past 32 home games.

“I still think Maryland has the inside track simply because they have shown the ability to win on the road,” Bonner said. “I still think they have a little bit of an edge on everybody else.”

The Terrapins might need a handful of victories to secure a high seed in the NCAA tournament. Without an impressive nonconference victory, Maryland is 25th in the Ratings Percentage Index, according to a replication on collegerpi.com, which might mean a lower seed than anticipated for the Terrapins.

Williams, however, said he was not looking ahead to where his team will be seeded in its 10th consecutive NCAA tournament.

“I’ve never done that,” he said. “I didn’t do that last year or the year before. You hope that people appreciate who you play.”

Wake Forest: The most consistent team in the conference this season, the Demon Deacons have a favorable closing schedule after Thursday night’s victory at Georgia Tech that includes games against each of the conference’s three worst teams, North Carolina, Florida State and Clemson.

Wake Forest has been led by dynamic forward Josh Howard, the likely ACC player of the year. And with the return of point guard Justin Gray from a broken jaw, the Demon Deacons could be ready to make a run. They have not won the regular season title outright since 1962.

Wake Forest has been through a difficult series of road trips, with a mid-February trip to Marquette and their three-day road trip in the snow to Maryland. However, the Demon Deacons will have to board a plane only one more time this season and they have the shortest trip of all to the ACC tournament.

Duke: In its past two games, Duke has benefited significantly from the improved play of freshman center Shelden Williams. Williams, who had three points and one rebound in the Blue Devils’ first game against Maryland, had 13 points, 11 rebounds and six blocks in Wednesday’s game. That came after a 20-point performance against Virginia.

If Williams and senior Casey Sanders can continue to provide an inside presence, the Blue Devils could be a dangerous team down the stretch.

“Those guys, all year, have been criticized -- Duke has no inside game, they’re soft,” point guard Chris Duhon said. “Now, they’re starting to make a name for themselves.”

The Blue Devils will host N.C. State in a pivotal game Saturday and Wednesday will play at Georgia Tech, which has one home loss. If Duke can win those two games, it stands a good chance to win out.

N.C. State: Complicating things could be N.C. State, which although it has not been a threat most of the season, trails Maryland and Duke by just one game in the loss column. However, the Wolfpack has the most difficult remaining schedule among the four teams, with games against the Terrapins, Blue Devils and Demon Deacons.

N.C. State’s problem lies in its struggles on the road, where it is 1-6 this season, beating only Florida State. The Wolfpack will play at Duke on Saturday and also has games remaining at North Carolina and at Clemson.

Although most conference teams have struggled in situations deemed “must-win,” perhaps no team has more pressure on it than N.C. State. Because of a relatively weak nonconference schedule that includes losses to four unranked teams -- Gonzaga, Massachusetts, Boston College and Temple, the last by 22 points on Saturday -- the Wolfpack has an RPI of 61, according to collegerpi.com. That means N.C. State might need to finish 10-6 in the ACC to be in position for an NCAA tournament invitation.