Long Beach Area Could Be Pivotal

The Long Beach area is shaping up to be one of California’s fiercest political battlegrounds this election season -- and perhaps the Republicans’ best shot at gaining a seat in the Legislature.

The 54th Assembly District -- which runs from the tony hills of Palos Verdes Peninsula through the tidy postwar tracts of east Long Beach to the coastal communities of Belmont Shore and Naples -- is now represented by a Democrat.

But Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger won more support here than he did in any other Democratic-controlled district during the 2003 recall election, said Allan Hoffenblum, who analyzes legislative races for the California Target Book.

It’s something the GOP hopes to capitalize on.

“The governor will be a deciding factor, depending on what he does in this race, and those independent voters are key,” said Hoffenblum. “It is easily the most competitive race in the state.”

Republican Steve Kuykendall, a former congressman, is running against Democrat Betty Karnette, a Long Beach state senator. If their names sound familiar to Long Beach voters, it’s because both have held this seat before. They faced each other a decade ago, with Kuykendall winning by a small margin.

It is a moderate district whose registered voters are 44% Democratic, 36% Republican -- and, significantly, 16% independent or decline to state.

Hoffenblum said the district is one of the few that has not been redistricted to make it completely “safe” for either Democrats or Republicans.

While voters supported Al Gore over George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential election, 57% of the district’s electorate voted to recall Democratic Gov. Gray Davis three years later, and 55% voted to replace him with Schwarzenegger.

“Arnold is a very pivotal figure,” Hoffenblum added. “For Kuykendall to win, he has to pick up soft Democrats.”

Beyond the district’s tendency to favor moderate politicians is what political pundits and consultants frequently call “the Arnold factor.”

Will he or won’t he get involved in the race? What will he do or say? He has already endorsed Kuykendall, a fellow Republican, but his spokesman said keeping such moves a secret adds strength if and when he makes them.

But it remains unclear how much Kuykendall gains from the popular governor vocally supporting him.

Gene Rotondo, owner of Legends restaurant and sports bar in the heart of Belmont Shore, voted for Schwarzenegger but said “it wouldn’t influence me in this race.”

Rotondo’s wife, co-owner of Legends, is among the businesswomen pictured on a huge Kuykendall billboard at the entrance to Belmont Shore. Gene Rotondo said he would vote for Kuykendall, but not because Schwarzenegger endorsed him

“It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out she’s [Karnette] not pro-business whatsoever,” he said.

Joan Greenwood, a chemist who considers air pollution from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to be a key issue, is backing Karnette and believes Schwarzenegger’s endorsement won’t affect the race.

“I think that’s because people know Sen. Karnette better than they know the governor,” Greenwood said.

“Republicans will vote for her because she’s done a good job of balancing the port needs with those of residents.”

Overall, the election has yet to generate much buzz at places like the Bristol Farms on Bellflower Boulevard, or along Belmont Shore’s 2nd Street.

David Shlemmer, who owns apartment buildings from Belmont Shore west toward downtown, has a Kuykendall campaign sign on his Belmont Heights lawn.

But even the faithful can find legislative races and boundaries confusing, given the way the candidates seem to swap in and out of them.

“Wait,” he said, “is the 54th, is that Karnette and Kuykendall or Lowenthal? Well, if it’s the Kuykendall race, I’m for him.” (Democratic Assemblyman Alan Lowenthal represents the district but is termed out and running for Karnette’s Senate seat.)

The race definitely has the attention of politicos on both sides.

For example, Long Beach’s native son, former Republican Gov. George Deukmejian, is working on behalf of Kuykendall.

A Republican victory would not change the Democratic majority in the state Assembly. But term limits force politicians and special interests to plan, like chess, several moves out.

And the district covers the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, key engines of the Southern California economy.

In Long Beach, a city of 471,000 people and the state’s fifth most populous, one in 10 residents work in a port-related job, according to estimates.

It helps explain why the terms “pro-business” and “anti-business” will be uttered by Chamber of Commerce President Randy Gordon several times in a short conversation. The chamber supports Kuykendall.

Kuykendall already held this seat once, then gave it up to run for Congress, so by term limits he could serve only a single two-year term. Is all the time and money being expended by the chamber worth it for a two-year Assembly seat?

“Two years with pro-business Steve Kuykendall is a whole lot better than four more with anti-business Betty Karnette, no question,” Gordon said.

Karnette’s campaign sees it otherwise. “I think they are running Steve for two years just to get him incumbency credentials for a run” for Congress in two years, said Karnette advisor Jerry Sheingold.

The congressional boundaries include Rancho Palos Verdes, where Kuykendall lives and served on the City Council and as mayor.

The remainder of the 54th embraces the neighborhoods north of downtown Long Beach -- where Karnette resides -- as well as a large swath of eastern Long Beach.

Predictably, candidate endorsements thus far fall along party lines and reveal some of the district’s constituencies. Karnette, a former math instructor active in teacher unions, has been endorsed by Democrats on the Long Beach City Council, as well as by teachers unions and the police and fire unions, whose support figured prominently in some of the most recent City Council races.

The entire Avalon City Council has endorsed Kuykendall, a government affairs consultant, although Santa Catalina Island’s 1,500 registered voters are about evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, Kuykendall said.

“Hey, I’ll take every vote I can get,” he said.