The Short List

After he shot a 75 to close out a miserable, wet (and 53rd-place) week at the Players Championship, Tiger Woods was asked whether what happened would hurt him at the Masters.

“I’m going to forget about it,” he said.

And Phil Mickelson fielded his own soggy question -- could he pull something positive out of the big Masters warmup that would help at Augusta National?

“Probably not too much, no,” he said.

The Masters, which begins Thursday, has an invitation list that includes 101 players who will try to conquer the tree-lined fairways, stay out of the pine needles under the trees, avoid Rae’s Creek and steer clear of the bark chips only steps from the first cut of rough.

But are there many who have a real chance to win?

To paraphrase half of the Big Four, probably not, so forget about it.

Mickelson is certainly among the favorites this week as he defends the title he won a year ago when he birdied five of the last seven holes to edge Ernie Els by one shot.

In the last 18 years, only two Masters winners probably would have been considered longshots -- Larry Mize, who chipped in on the second playoff hole to shock Greg Norman in 1987, and Mark O’Meara, who birdied three of the last four holes to win on his 15th try, a record.

Everyone else, no surprise. That’s likely to be the same scenario this week when the Big Four of Vijay Singh, Woods, Els and Mickelson play the year’s first major and try to determine whether their credentials are what they’re cracked up to be.

If the Masters follows form, determining a likely champion may not be too difficult. The players already have left plenty of hints.

Who’s Hot

* Woods: Forget his tie for 53rd at the Players Championship and his tie for 23rd at Bay Hill. They were truncated, waterlogged events that tested Woods’ patience, not his game.

A better indication of how Woods has been playing is that he’s third in driving distance (302.7), seventh in greens in regulation, ninth in putting, seventh in scoring and fifth in sand saves. Plus, he has won the Masters three times, although not since 2002, so he’s due.

* Els: No one has been more consistent, on either the PGA Tour or the European Tour -- two victories, a tie for third and a tie for fifth on the European Tour; three times in the top six in five tournaments on the PGA Tour.

After losing to Mickelson a year ago even though he shot 67 on the last day, Els may be the best player never to have won the Masters.

* Mickelson: Back-to-back victories, at Phoenix and Pebble Beach, and a win Monday in the BellSouth Classic, plus strong showings at the Match Play at La Costa and Doral, where he was 23 under and still lost to Woods, mean that Mickelson is in great form.

No one has won back-to-back Masters titles since Nick Faldo in 1989-90.

* Retief Goosen: Three top 10s and a tie for 12th in his last four tournaments ... Goosen is cooking. He also knows how to play Augusta National, where he was second in 2002 and tied for 13th the last two years.

The bad news is that Goosen ranks 66th in driving distance, 37th in greens in regulation and 34th in putting -- all areas that must improve dramatically if the 2001 and 2004 U.S. Open champion is going to win here.

* Sergio Garcia: Forget that he closed with a 66 last year and that he has two top-eight finishes here in the last three years. Remember that he has three top 10s so far on the PGA Tour. But here’s a troubling figure: 182. That’s Garcia’s rank for putting average.

Who’s Not

* John Daly: Not only is his driving distance under 300 yards for the first time in years, Daly is 111th in greens in regulation and 78th in putting. Plus, he hasn’t done better than 69th in any full-field event this year. He has done nothing at the Masters since he tied for third in 1993.

* Chris DiMarco: A co-leader with Mickelson after 54 holes a year ago, he closed with a 76 and wound up tied for sixth. Second to David Toms at La Costa, DiMarco hasn’t done better than a tie for 44th this year.

* Davis Love III: He always seems to play well at Augusta -- six top 10s and a tie for sixth last year -- but he also has only one title in 67 appearances in the majors, and that was eight years ago at the PGA Championship. Love has two top 10s in stroke play events this year, but he’s a troubling 113th in putting and a so-so 52nd in scoring average -- 71.06 -- his worst since he ended the 1988 season at 71.21.

* Jeff Maggert: Just two years ago, Maggert shot a third-round 66 and led after three rounds, but wound up fifth when he shot 75 and made a triple bogey at the par-four third.

Who’s Warm

* Singh: He won here, but it was five years ago, and even though Singh holds the No. 1 ranking, his grip isn’t the tightest. He won this year at Honolulu, and he has four other top 10s, but he also faltered at the Honda and at Bay Hill. As his putting goes, so goes Singh. He’s ranked 94th this year, compared with 37th last year when he won nine times.

* Luke Donald: He has three top 10s this year, including a tie for second at the Players Championship. Donald’s scoring average of 69.20 ranks second on the PGA Tour, trailing only Mickelson. But he has never played the Masters, and first-time players just don’t cut it here.

* Tom Lehman: At 46, he’s the feel-good story of the year, with three top 10s and a tie for second at the Players Championship. Lehman hasn’t won in five years and his best days are past ... or does he have four more in him?

* Jim Furyk: He has three top 10s this year, is 10th in putting, and is back at his favorite course in his favorite tournament, where he’s been in the top six three times.

* Darren Clarke: He ranks first on the PGA Tour in eagles, which could come in handy this week.