A New Crop Should Rise

The mighty have fallen in the Western Conference.

Age, hard mileage and the constraints of the new salary cap have weakened the Avalanche, Red Wings and Stars, who won six of the last nine Stanley Cup championships. By contrast, the Flames might be better than they were during their surprise run to the 2004 final, the Oilers got stronger after a barely failed playoff run, and even the Blackhawks are stirring after years of poor management.

“For our team in Calgary, there is higher expectations, and it is a change,” Calgary forward Jarome Iginla said. “Before, we had expectations of just trying to scrape into the playoffs. Now we believe we’re a playoff team. We have to go prove that, and after that, we want to win.”

The physical and emotional toll of an 82-game season and playoff marathon have become so steep that few teams in the last decade have been competitive the season after they reached the final. But precedents might not mean much this season, which follows the unprecedented cancellation of a season because of a labor dispute.

The extended rest afforded by the lockout might benefit older players such as Detroit’s Steve Yzerman, but he -- like countless others -- pulled a groin muscle while trying to get back into game shape.

Players who competed in Europe or the minor leagues during the lockout -- especially youngsters -- gained experience that could help them this season.

It’s also impossible to predict the impact of rule changes the NHL has instituted to promote scoring. Small players such as Paul Kariya, who left Colorado for Nashville, may see their stock rise if they have room to maneuver. Puck-moving defensemen such as Chris Pronger, who was traded from St. Louis to Edmonton, are valuable commodities.

“Teams are going to look great on paper and teams that have made a lot of moves and feel like they have improved their clubs a lot, nobody really knows how teams are going to play under the new rules,” Pronger said. “It’s kind of a crapshoot right now.”

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IN ORDER OF PLAYOFF PROSPECTS

1. CALGARY FLAMES

* Coach: Darryl Sutter, third season.

* 2003-04 record: 42-30-7-3, 94 points, third in Northwest Division.

* Player to watch: Right wing Jarome Iginla emerged as a franchise player during the Flames’ run to the final. The sturdy right wing signed a three-year deal, showing a commitment to a young team.

* Outlook: Right wing Tony Amonte should boost the offense, Darren McCarty ups the toughness quotient for all those division games, and Roman Hamrlik brings depth to a formidable defense corps that includes Jordan Leopold and can withstand the projected monthlong loss (sprained knee) of Robyn Regehr. Right wing Chuck Kobasew flourished in the American Hockey League during the lockout. Goalie Miikka Kiprusoff led the league in 2003-04 with a 1.69 goals-against average and tied for the best save percentage, .933.

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2. SAN JOSE SHARKS

* Coach: Ron Wilson, third season.

* 2003-04 record: 43-21-12-6, 104 points, first in Pacific.

* Player to watch: Goalie Evgeni Nabokov compiled a 1.71 goals-against average and .935 save percentage in carrying the Sharks to the conference final. He won at least 30 games in three of the four seasons before the lockout and should match or top that.

* Outlook: They’re fast. They’re playoff-seasoned. They’re young and they have an effective motivator in Wilson. There’s a lot to like about the Sharks, although they might need help on the blue line after the departure of Mike Rathje. Patrick Marleau and Jonathan Cheechoo shared the team lead in 2003-04 with 28 goals, and neither has peaked. Good financial and strategic planning has put the Sharks in position to excel under the cap and offense-friendly rules.

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3. DETROIT RED WINGS

* Coach: Mike Babcock, first season.

* 2003-04 record: 48-21-11-2, 109 points, first in Central and overall.

* Player to watch: The Red Wings sweated while center Pavel Datsyuk considered playing in Russia. They couldn’t have replaced the team-leading 30 goals and 68 points he had in 2003-04.

* Outlook: Someone has to win the Central and get the No. 3 seeding. Steve Yzerman is 40 and starts the season with a groin injury. Chris Chelios will be 44 in January, two days after Brendan Shanahan turns 37. This is a veteran group, and there’s not enough young talent to step in and keep the Red Wings among the elite. They had a setback last week when defenseman Niklas Kronwall suffered a knee injury and will undergo surgery. He’ll be out four to six months. That will put more pressure on Chris Osgood, back for a second stint in goal.

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4. VANCOUVER CANUCKS

* Coach: Marc Crawford, seventh season.

* 2003-04 record: 43-24-10-5, 101 points, first in Northwest.

* Player to watch: Todd Bertuzzi. His suspension for a blindside hit of Colorado’s Steve Moore was lifted by Commissioner Gary Bettman, but will he shy away from contact? If he does, his effectiveness will be limited. He’s also facing a lawsuit filed by Moore, a potential distraction.

* Outlook: The Canucks expected to go far in 2003-04 but exited in the first round after losing Bertuzzi to a suspension and goalie Dan Cloutier to an ankle injury. They’re largely the same group, including goal-scoring leader Markus Naslund (35) and first-line center Brendan Morrison. Daniel Sedin (18 goals, 54 points) and twin Henrik (11 goals, 42 points) can be more productive. Ed Jovanovski and Mattias Ohlund lead a solid defense.

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5. MIGHTY DUCKS

* Coach: Randy Carlyle, first season.

* 2003-04 record: 29-35-10-8, 76 points, fourth in Pacific.

* Player to watch: Scott Niedermayer. The Norris Trophy winner and three-time Cup champion with New Jersey is a remarkable skater, reads the game well and can quarterback the power play. No longer stuck in a defense-oriented system, he can shine.

* Outlook: New General Manager Brian Burke wants the Ducks to play at a high tempo, theorizing that he can win more fans -- and games -- that way than with a conservative, grinding team. He has some horses but holes could spring on defense. Sergei Fedorov said in 2003-04 that he wasn’t sure of his role, and here’s a clue: it’s not to check. Joffrey Lupul has a scoring knack, as do Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf. Signing right wing Teemu Selanne after knee surgery was a gamble that might pay off.

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6. DALLAS STARS

* Coach: Dave Tippett, third season.

* 2003-04 record: 41-26-13-2, 97 points, second in Pacific.

* Player to watch: As Mike Modano goes, so go the Stars. The 35-year-old center had merely 14 goals and 44 points in 2003-04, struggles he attributed to worrying about financial problems. He signed a five-year deal to stay in Dallas although he probably could have gotten more elsewhere.

* Outlook: The aging Stars must get contributions from younger players. To the rescue comes 25-year-old Finnish left wing Antti Miettinen, whose exhibition performances may land him on the first or second line. Bill Guerin, Jason Arnott, Brenden Morrow and Jere Lehtinen remain front-line performers, but they lack speed and so does the team as a whole. Goalie Marty Turco has had four straight solid seasons but is only 7-10 in the playoffs.

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7. EDMONTON OILERS

* Coach: Craig MacTavish, fifth season.

* 2003-04 record: 36-29-12-5, 89 points, fourth in Northwest.

* Player to watch: Ty Conklin played 38 games for the Oilers in 2003-04 but is expected to start ahead of Jussi Markkanen this season. Conklin, an Alaska native, has a chance at a berth on the U.S. Olympic team at the Turin Games.

* Outlook: The Oilers love the salary cap because they believe it puts them on an equal footing with their richer brethren. And if not for the cap, they probably wouldn’t have been able to get Chris Pronger from St. Louis and Michael Peca from the Islanders when those teams had to pare salary. The Oilers already had good speed, and those two trades increased their size, toughness and potential power-play production. Young winger

Ales Hemsky could be ready for a breakout season.

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8. COLORADO AVALANCHE

* Coach: Joel Quenneville, first season.

* 2003-04 record: 40-22-13-7, 100 points, second in Northwest.

* Player to watch: Goalie David Aebischer won’t make anyone forget Patrick Roy, but he’s not bad. With a decline in offense likely, his performances will become more crucial to Colorado’s success.

* Outlook: After Peter Forsberg left for Philadelphia as a free agent and Adam Foote went to Columbus, the Avalanche began to look very ordinary. Beyond the first line of Joe Sakic centering for Milan Hejduk and Alex Tanguay and second-line left wing Steve Konowalchuk, there’s little depth. Hejduk is expected to sit out the first three weeks of the season while he recovers from surgery on his right knee. Rob Blake and John-Michael Liles are the linchpins of the defense, which must work hard behind a corps of older forwards.

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9. KINGS

* Coach: Andy Murray, sixth season.

* 2003-04 record: 28-29-16-9, 81 points, third in Pacific.

* Player to watch: Mathieu Garon faded toward the end of last season with Manchester of the AHL, putting his durability in question. Jason LaBarbera, signed as a free agent, is an inexperienced Plan B.

* Outlook: Adding Jeremy Roenick and Pavol Demitra upgraded their skill, and wingers Dustin Brown and Alexander Frolov are poised to break out. But Roenick might be a concussion from retirement, and center Derek Armstrong’s training-camp concussion was worrisome. The Kings need Michael Cammalleri to prove he’s not just a good minor-league player. Denis Grebeshkov has a good shot and should help the power play. If all goes well and another team stumbles, they could grab a playoff spot.

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10. NASHVILLE PREDATORS

* Coach: Barry Trotz, seventh season.

* 2003-04 record: 38-29-11-4, 91 points, third in Central.

* Player to watch: Paul Kariya is trying to recapture his scoring touch. He and pal Teemu Selanne signed in Colorado as a package deal but foundered after Kariya suffered a wrist injury and scored a career-low 11 goals in 51 games. However, he has recovered and should get room to skate and score off the rush if obstruction does, indeed, diminish.

* Outlook: Gritty and speedy, the Predators made the playoffs for the first time in 2003-04 and played well in a six-game loss to Detroit. They have a mobile defense that fuels a good power play, and goalie Tomas Vokoun (2.53 goals-against) kept them in every game. A playoff return will be possible only if David Legwand exceeds the 18 goals he scored in his fifth full season.

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11. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

* Coach: Trent Yawney, first season.

* 2003-04 record: 20-43-11-8, 59 points, fifth in Central.

* Player to watch: The once-mighty Blackhawks had become irrelevant in Chicago until General Manager Dale Tallon lured Stanley Cup-winning goalie Nikolai Khabibulin away from Tampa Bay with a four-year, $27-million deal. Khabibulin restored the team’s credibility and will give the Blackhawks a shot at a playoff berth.

* Outlook: Tallon also signed defensemen Adrian Aucoin and Jaroslav Spacek and winger Martin Lapointe, adding grit and offensive balance to a lineup that features four players who exceeded 20 goals in 2003-04 (Tyler Arnason, Mark Bell, Tuomo Ruutu and Kyle Calder). Yawney previously coached the Blackhawks’ AHL farm team in Norfolk, Va., so he knows his personnel well.

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12. COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

* Coach: Gerard Gallant, second season.

* 2003-04 record: 25-45-8-4, 62 points, fourth in Central.

* Player to watch: Stalwart defenseman Adam Foote left the Quebec/Colorado organization after 13 years to sign with the Blue Jackets. His arrival gives them a solid defense and leadership.

* Outlook: Adding defenseman Bryan Berard, a good skater and passer, should energize an offense that was among the NHL’s worst. But the central question is how quickly Rick Nash, who shared the NHL goal-scoring lead in 2003-04 with 41, will rebound from an ankle injury. He’s poised, polished and a potential superstar at 21. Winger Nikolai Zherdev, who had 13 goals and 34 points in 57 games as a rookie in 2003-04, is creative and a future star. Goalie Marc Denis (2.56 goals-against) sees a lot of shots but is rarely rattled.

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13. MINNESOTA WILD

* Coach: Jacques Lemaire, fifth season.

* 2003-04 record: 30-29-20-3, 83 points, fifth in Northwest.

* Player to watch: Center Mikko Koivu, a 2001 first-round draft pick known for his two-way play, had a terrific season in the American Hockey League and appears ready to make the jump.

* Outlook: General Manager Doug Risebrough has an array of good prospects who will undoubtedly endure some growing pains. Among the proven forwards, the top talent is right wing Marian Gaborik, who had 18 goals and 40 points in 65 games in 2003-04. He was hampered by a groin pull during training camp and might not be ready for the opener. Center Todd White, acquired in a trade with Ottawa, sat out parts of camp because of a concussion. Goalies Manny Fernandez and Dwayne Roloson will be the team’s backbone again and they can’t afford to falter.

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14. PHOENIX COYOTES

* Coach: Wayne Gretzky, first season.

* 2003-04 record: 22-36-18-6, 68 points, fifth in Pacific.

* Player to watch: That Gretzky guy could play ... but can he coach? The NHL’s career leading scorer is a rookie again, learning to match wits and lines with fellow members of the coaching fraternity. If only he could send himself over the boards.

* Outlook: When Brian Boucher pulled a groin muscle in the first exhibition game, the Coyotes winced. They have little margin for error, especially with Curtis Joseph showing the agility of a statue during exhibition play. They do have a rugged defense, with Sean O’Donnell, Cale Hulse and Denis Gauthier, and they’ll have some speed up front. Winger Shane Doan is a good leader too. Brett Hull, 41, is third in career goalscoring, at 741. The anti-obstruction rules should rejuvenate him.

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15. ST. LOUIS BLUES

* Coach: Mike Kitchen, second season.

* 2003-04 record: 39-30-11-2, 91 points, second in Central.

* Player to watch: Winger Keith Tkachuk returned to training camp only Thursday after being suspended for reporting out of shape. That’s a poor way to lead a team that traded Pronger and lost Al MacInnis to retirement and needed to rally around a strong personality.

* Outlook: Center Doug Weight and standout defenseman Barret Jackman each suffered shoulder injuries during training camp; if they’re out for any length of time, the Blues won’t recover. Eric Brewer, acquired when Pronger was dealt to Edmonton, will have a tough time playing in his predecessor’s shadow. Reports this week said owners Bill and Nancy Laurie would sell the franchise to MLS executive Dave Checketts, but uncertainty looms over payroll and other issues.