Expectations Weren’t Too High, but the Real Work Is Still Ahead

The Lakers began the season by hitting headwinds on the way to training camp in Honolulu, indicative of the difficult route pundits thought they would travel over 82 games.

Typical of tepid preseason projections: Only four of 12 writers and scouts surveyed by ESPN picked the Lakers to make the playoffs, none predicting a higher finish than eighth in the Western Conference.

The Lakers did a worthy job of becoming the seventh-seeded team in the West, but the numbers are beginning to stack against them again.

Aside from their 1-7 record against their first-round opponent, the Phoenix Suns, the last two seasons, they face the historic odds of seventh-seeded teams against second-seeded teams. Since the 16-team playoff format was adopted in 1984, only four of 44 No. 7s have advanced past the first round: Seattle in 1987, Golden State in 1989 and 1991, and New York in 1998.

Mathematically, it’s a 9.1% chance of winning. In reality, the Lakers like their odds, based on their five-game winning streak and a surge to a season-best eight games over .500.

“I am really excited,” said guard Smush Parker, who will draw the assignment of defending Steve Nash. “We feel like we have a chance at beating a very good Phoenix Suns team.”

Said Laker center Kwame Brown, speaking also on behalf of teammate Chris Mihm: “We both are going to try to pound them down low and see what success we have.”

The Suns, meanwhile, have gone a very average 12-11 since March 9, stumbling while trying to incorporate All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire (he played only three games before having another knee surgery) and generally trying to avoid boredom after holding the West’s No. 2 spot for the better part of a month.

Critics are also questioning their championship chances with a run-and-fun system that currently has 6-foot-8 forward Boris Diaw at center.

“For whatever reason there’s been a lot of doubters,” Nash told the Arizona Republic. “That’s fine. We don’t mind that position. Whatever. We’re too small and whatever. It means nothing to us.”

The Suns led the league in scoring (108.4 points) and set an NBA record by making 837 three-point baskets, shooting a blistering 39.9% from beyond the arc.

On the other hand, so many outside shots meant fewer fouls and fewer free throws: The Suns set NBA record lows with averages of 14.5 free throws made and 18 free-throws a game.

The Lakers will try to slow down the Suns and get the ball to Brown and Mihm, who played Wednesday against New Orleans for the first time since sustaining a severely sprained right ankle March 12.

Mihm was understandably rusty after sitting out 17 games -- two points on one-for-five shooting -- but Brown continued his recent run of productivity with 19 points on seven-for-eight shooting and eight rebounds.

“If he plays like that in the postseason, he will do damage,” Coach Phil Jackson said. “There’s no doubt about it. We’re looking for him inside and guys are finding him and using him in an appropriate manner.”

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The Lakers submitted their playoff roster without the names of rookies Von Wafer and Devin Green to get down to the league limit of 13 players for postseason play. Teams are then allowed to suit up 12 players for each game.... Luke Walton was diagnosed with a bruised left cheekbone and is expected to play Sunday.... The Lakers will come back to L.A. for two days between Games 1 and 2.

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New Orleans Coach Byron Scott may be a tad biased if true to his Laker roots, but he senses a closer series than many would expect.

“I think the Lakers have to find a way to make sure they run their offense and slow things down a bit,” he said. “I think if the Lakers play their style of basketball and their tempo, then you have No. 8 [Kobe Bryant] out there, you can win any series. So they definitely have a real good chance.”

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Keeping score

Kobe Bryant, who won the NBA scoring title with a 35.4 average, ranks fourth among active players in career scoring average (minimum 10,000 points). Since the 1995-96 season, only Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal led their teams to NBA titles after leading the league in scoring.

Active point-scoring leaders (minimum 10,000 points):

*--* Player PPG Player PPG Allen Iverson 28.03 Tracy McGrady 22.17 Shaquille O’Neal 26.32 Tim Duncan 22.06 Vince Carter 23.95 Dirk Nowitzki 21.99 Kobe Bryant 23.84 Chris Webber 21.63 Paul Pierce 23.47 Grant Hill 20.59

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Recent NBA scoring title winners (*won NBA title):

*--* Season Player PPG Team (Record) 2005-2006 Kobe Bryant 35.40 Lakers (45-37) 2004-2005 Allen Iverson 30.69 Philadelphia (43-39) 2003-2004 Tracy McGrady 28.03 Orlando (21-61) 2002-2003 Tracy McGrady 32.09 Orlando (42-40) 2001-2002 Allen Iverson 31.38 Philadelphia (43-49) 2000-2001 Allen Iverson 31.08 Philadelphia (56-26) 1999-2000 Shaquille O’Neal 29.67 Lakers (67-15)* 1998-1999 Allen Iverson 26.75 Philadelphia (27-23) 1997-1998 Michael Jordan 28.74 Chicago (62-20)* 1996-1997 Michael Jordan 29.65 Chicago (69-13)* 1995-1996 Michael Jordan 30.38 Chicago (72-10)*

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