Formula Says Seattle Wins

Even though they were the AFC’s sixth-seeded team, and seven weeks ago were in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored to win Super Bowl XL.

They have the national following, a rich championship history, and the heartwarming sideshow of running back Jerome Bettis returning to his hometown to play for his first -- and probably last -- title.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks, the NFC’s top-seeded team, are relishing the role of underdog.

“People around the country say that the AFC is strong and the NFC is weak. Whatever,” quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said.

Don Zminda is not one of those people. His formula points to Seattle as the winner.

Zminda, vice president and director of research of STATS LLC, is among the nation’s top analysts of sports statistical data. He has devised a formula that has accurately picked 18 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners, not counting Denver’s victory over Atlanta in Super Bowl XXXIII, when the indicators were split, 5-5-1. (The formula missed in 1990, picking Buffalo over the New York Giants, and in 2001, picking St. Louis over New England.)

The formula compares 11 statistical indicators -- such as net yardage differential, and net yards per passing play -- and picks the team that wins a majority of the categories. Overall, the team with more categories in its favor has gone 29-9 in the 39 previous Super Bowls -- again, not counting Denver’s victory over Atlanta. In the formula’s categories, Seattle has a 6-5 edge, which doesn’t sound like much. But the last five Super Bowl teams with that razor-thin advantage wound up winning.

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Super indicator

For several years, STATS has used an index of 11 indicators, based on which team held the edge in various statistical categories, to forecast the winner of the Super Bowl. This year, the indicators give the Seattle Seahawks a 6-5 edge over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

*--* SEA PITT Points scored 452 389 Points allowed 271 258 Point differential +181 +131 Opp. total yards 5,069 4,544 Net yardage differential +846 +605 Turnover differential +10 +7 Rushing yards/att . 4.73 4.05 Opp. rushing yards/att . 3.60 3.42 Net yards/pass play 6.90 7.12 Opp. net yards/pass play 5.73 5.32 Regular-season record 13-3 11-5

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Source: STATS LLC