How it ought to go in key categories

Times critics and contributors handicap nine of the most intriguing Grammy categories.

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Album of the Year

Mariah Carey: “The Emancipation of Mimi”

Paul McCartney: “Chaos and Creation in the Backyard”

Gwen Stefani: “Love. Angel. Music. Baby.”

U2: “How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb”

Kanye West: “Late Registration”

We all know that emotion plays a big part in awards show voting and you can build a case for why voters would vote, emotionally, for any of these. Carey is the comeback story of the year. McCartney has never won in this category for his solo work. Stefani is pregnant. And so on. Musically, it’s strictly a race between West (above) and U2. Both gave us marvelous albums, but West’s broke the most ground.

-- Robert Hilburn

Record of the Year

Mariah Carey: “We Belong Together”

Gorillaz featuring De La Soul: “Feel Good Inc.”

Green Day: “Boulevard

of Broken Dreams”

Gwen Stefani: “Hollaback Girl”

Kanye West: “Gold Digger”

“Hollaback Girl” is a great Neptunes production with a hollow core, Carey’s entry is bland, Green Day is overrated for the second straight year. But Kanye vs. Gorillaz is epic: “Gold Digger’s” relentless, minimalist hook and scathing sketch, or “Feel Good’s” disarming mix of rock, rap and aching Britpop (via Damon Albarn, above)? The production of West or Danger Mouse? Both records have depth and daring; we’ll go with Gorillaz by a hair.

-- RICHARD CROMELIN

Best New Artist

Ciara

Fall Out Boy

Keane

John Legend

SugarLand

The only real embarrassment is the absence of Arcade Fire, a band overflowing with imagination and purpose. Of the nominees, lots of competence, but only one memorable choice: Legend (above). The R&Bsinger-songwriter;’s “Ordinary People” is one of the great ballads of recent years. -- R.H.

Rap Solo Performance

Common: “Testify”

Eminem: “Mockingbird”

50 Cent: “Disco Inferno”

Ludacris: “Number One Spot”

T.I.: “U Don’t Know Me”

Kanye West: “Gold Digger”

In this year’s strongest rap category, four of the six entries would be worthy winners. T.I.’s riotous “U Don’t Know Me” is a menacing slice of hard-core rap, while Ludacris’ “Number One Spot” showcases his ingenious gift of gab. But the real contest comes down to two terrific story-driven cuts. Common’s crime caper “Testify” merits the win, but Kanye West’s commercial hit “Gold Digger” will likely take home the crown.

-- Soren Baker

Hard Rock Performance

Audioslave: “Doesn’t Remind Me”

Nine Inch Nails: “The Hand That Feeds”

Robert Plant: “Tin Pan

Valley”

Queens of the Stone Age: “Little Sister”

System of a Down: “B.Y.O.B.”

Audioslave’s folky entry is one of its few songs that isn’t hard rock, and Plant’s withering putdown of some of his ‘60s peers doesn’t quite fit here either. It’s a tight battle royal among the three viable candidates, with NIN and System of a Down (singer Serj Tankian, above) double-teaming the Queens into submission and then going head to head. This would be a good time for the ever-idiosyncratic and politically pointed System to land its first Grammy.

-- R.C.

Country Song

“Alcohol” (songwriter and performer: Brad Paisley, right)

“All Jacked Up” (songwriters: Vicky McGehee, John Rich & Gretchen Wilson; performer: Wilson)

“Bless the Broken Road” (songwriters: Bobby Boyd, Jeff Hanna & Marcus Hummon; performer: Rascal Flatts)

“I Hope” (songwriters: Keb Mo, Martie Maguire, Natalie Maines & Emily Robison; performer: Dixie Chicks)

“I May Hate Myself in the Morning” (songwriter: Odie Blackmon; performer: Lee Ann Womack)

This year’s country song crop is particularly instructive for the varied songwriting approaches it covers: uplifting romance (“Bless the Broken Road”), uplifting social commentary (“Alcohol,” “I Hope”), individualized confessions (“All Jacked Up,” “I May Hate Myself in the Morning”). The latter two work best at mining the struggle of people fighting their own worst enemies: themselves. The nod should go to Blackmon’s portrait of a woman who recognizes how all toowilling she is to cast aside her better judgment for a moment, however fleeting, of physical and emotional bliss.

-- Randy Lewis

Latin Album

Ricardo

Arjona: “Solo” (digital version)

Jorge

Drexler: “Eco”

Andrea

Echeverri: “Andrea

Echeverri”

Kevin Johansen: “Citi Zen”

Laura Pausini: “Escucha”

Pausini, the pleasant but predictable Italian vocalist, is the only straight-up pop performer in a category loaded with alternative artists, mostly respected songwriters. Guatemala’s Arjona can be insufferably pretentious, Argentine American Johansen made a vastly uneven album, and Colombia’s Echeverri, half of Aterciopelados, was too obsessed with motherhood. That leaves the introspective, provocative and poetic work by Uruguayan, Oscar-winning Drexler (above) as the deserving choice.

-- Agustin Gurza

Classical Album

Bolcom: “Songs of Innocence and of Experience,” Leonard Slatkin, conductor

Chavez: “Complete Chamber Music, Vol. 3,” Jeff Von Der Schmidt, conductor

Martha Argerich: “Martha Argerich and Friends: Live From the Lugano Festival”

Mendelssohn: The Complete String Quartets, Emerson String Quartet

Shostakovich: Symphony No. 13, Mariss Jansons, conductor

Only one of the year’s important releases is among the finalists for best classical CD. It is the first recording of “Songs of Innocence and Experience” by William Bolcom (above), a massive song cycle for humongous forces that sets William Blake’s poems in a vast array of musical styles. If this landmark in American music of the last quarter-century doesn’t win, the Grammys will be the big loser.

-- Mark Swed

Jazz Instrumental

Album

Terence Blanchard: “Flow”

Billy Childs Ensemble: “Lyric”

Wynton Marsalis: “Live at the House of Tribes”

Wayne Shorter Quartet: “Beyond the Sound Barrier”

Kenny Wheeler With Dave Holland, Chris Potter and John Taylor: “What Now?”

The breadth of the fine selections in the category affirms that instrumental jazz is in pretty good shape these days. The Shorter, Marsalis and Blanchard albums demonstrate mainstream’s continuing vitality; Childs’ chamber jazz and Wheeler’s free-flying improvisations reach into more envelope-stretching areas. The winner is likely to be Shorter or Marsalis, the best-known entrants. But Childs, long overdue for wider recognition anyway, has created the standout effort this year.

-- Don Heckman

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48th annual Grammy Awards

When: 5 p.m. Wednesday

Where: Staples Center

TV: CBS, 8 p.m. (tape delayed for West Coast telecast). Scheduled performances: Mariah Carey, John Legend, Bruce Springsteen, Coldplay (right), and SugarLand.

Notable pairings: Mary J. Blige and U2; Jamie Foxx and Kanye West; Christina Aguilera and Herbie Hancock; Faith Hill and Keith Urban.

Also scheduled: A tribute to Sly and the Family Stone.