Uneasy Pickings

Welcome to the all-time guessing game.

The normal NBA draft has a drop-off after the first few picks, after which it’s hard to separate the prospects. This time, the drop-off comes before the first pick.

Under normal circumstances, everyone would have known who was going No. 1 a month ago. Today’s draft is so fluid, ESPN Insider’s Chad Ford went into the final weekend with seven scenarios and four players in the top slot.

This is a transition draft, the first under the NBA’s 19-year-old minimum-age rule. Otherwise, everyone would have known the top pick: 7-foot Greg Oden, who’ll attend Ohio State instead. Two more prep big men, Texas-bound Kevin Durant and Washington-bound Spencer Hawes, would have been projected as lottery picks.

Further weakening this draft, Florida’s 6-11 Joakim Noah, the next top pick designee, stayed in school, as did three more projected lottery picks: teammate Al Horford, Josh McRoberts of Duke and Tyler Hansbrough of North Carolina.

Further complicating it is that Toronto’s new general manager, Bryan Colangelo, who has the top pick, is holed up and sending out confusing signals.

One team says Toronto is telling people it will choose among Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge and Adam Morrison. Another team says it just heard, the Raptors are taking Rudy Gay!

Meanwhile, Colangelo, who began the process focused on Bargnani, the 6-11 Italian sharpshooter, is closeted with his newly arrived assistant GM, Maurizio Gherardini, who just happened to be Bargnani’s GM at Treviso!

And that’s only the top pick.

At No. 2, Chicago GM John Paxson might get his choice of his two top picks, Aldridge and Tyrus Thomas. Paxson reportedly likes Thomas, but Coach Scott Skiles would prefer Aldridge. Tune in today to see which way they go.

At No. 3, new Charlotte co-owner Michael Jordan, a gambler in and out of the casino, just took over, meaning they could do anything, like writing off Coach-GM Bernie Bickerstaff’s investment in Emeka Okafor and Primo Brezec and taking a big man.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia is aggressively shopping Allen Iverson and Utah is looking for a taker for Carlos Boozer.

If Iverson gets traded, people may forget there even is a draft.

The projected picks are listed below. Heights and weights are according to measurements taken at the Orlando pre-draft camp, or during workouts with teams.

In the case of players such as Bargnani who didn’t work out, an inch was taken off their listed heights.

1. Toronto -- Andrea Bargnani, 6-11, 245, Benetton Treviso (Italy). No one else would take him here, but a big man who can shoot is a major piece of the puzzle in GM Bryan Colangelo’s plan to open the floor the way his old team, the Suns, do.

2. Chicago -- LaMarcus Aldridge, 6-10, 234, Soph., Texas. Slender frame and thin legs mean he won’t be dominating, but his length and athleticism still set him apart.

3. Charlotte -- Rudy Gay, 6-7, 222, Soph., Connecticut. Michael Jordan, the new boss, likes athletes and Gay is the most gifted player in the draft. Of course, Jordan has to discount the fact that Gay hasn’t done much with it.

4. Portland -- Adam Morrison, 6-6 1/2 , 198, Jr., Gonzaga. People dived off the bandwagon after the NCAA tournament, but his fiery competitiveness impressed teams in workouts. Larry Bird comparisons are ridiculous; try a less petulant, more skilled Wally Szczerbiak.

5. Atlanta -- Shelden Williams, 6-7 1/2 , 258, Sr., Duke. GM Billy Knight wants someone who can help fast, while he’s still GM. Williams isn’t a great athlete and his modest size and standing reach (8-8) suggest he won’t be a big shot blocker. Of course, Knight passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams last spring and still doesn’t have a point guard.

6. Minnesota -- Tyrus Thomas 6-7 1/4 , 217, Fr., LSU. He’s a gift here. This human pogo stick is the No. 1 prospect on a lot of boards. He’s even shorter than suspected, but his 9-foot standing reach means he can play power forward.

7. Boston -- Brandon Roy, 6-5 1/4 , 207, Sr., Washington. Everyone knows he’s the best all-around player, but no one’s too excited about him, which may be everyone’s mistake.

8. Houston -- Randy Foye, 6-2 1/2 , 212, Sr., Villanova. Rockets want to trade the pick and Luther Head to Minnesota to get Roy. If they can’t, Foye is still better than any of their guards.

9. Golden State -- Cedric Simmons, 6-8 1/4 , 223, Soph., North Carolina State. GM Chris Mullin, the riverboat gambler, wants no part of the big projects everyone is putting him down for and takes Simmons, who’s long and athletic.

10. Seattle -- Hilton Armstrong, 6-9 1/2 , 240, Sr., Connecticut. After all that happy talk about Robert Swift and John Petro, they’d like a center who’s actually close to being ready to play.

11. Orlando -- J.J. Redick, 6-4, 190, Sr. Duke. One of the great college shooters ever, he’s a complementary player but could be a great one like Jeff Hornacek.

12. New Orleans -- Patrick O’Bryant, 6-11, 249, Soph., Bradley. With aging power forward P.J. Brown at center, the Hornets are desperate for size.

13. Philadelphia -- Marcus Williams, 6-2, 215, Jr., Connecticut. They’re shopping Allen Iverson, looking for their next point guard and, whether GM Billy King knows it or not, starting over.

14. Utah -- Saer Sene, 6-11, 237, Pepinster (Belgium). This Senegalese phenom was an unknown until he blocked nine shots against top U.S. preps in April’s Hoop Summit.

15. New Orleans--Ronnie Brewer, 6-5 3/4 , 223, Jr., Arkansas. A slasher who will be a star if he can shoot. Not bad now, but he has a weird release and backed up from 40% on three-pointers as a sophomore to last season’s 34%.

16. Chicago -- Thabo Sefolosha, 6-6, 200, Angelico Biella (Italy). Fast-rising young shooting guard from Switzerland who resembles Shaun Livingston, at least facially.

17. Indiana -- Kyle Lowry, 5-11 1/2 , 194, Soph., Villanova. Athletic little point guard to take over as Jamal Tinsley is phased out or dumped.

18. Washington -- Oleksiy Pecherov 6-10, 220, Paris Racing (France). Big guy who can shoot for a team with big guys who can’t, like Jared Jeffries, or don’t do much of anything, like Brendan Haywood.

19. Sacramento -- Rodney Carney, 6-4 1/2 , 205, Sr., Memphis. Kings are hoping a big player drops, but they’ll settle for any of the top-ranked prospects, like Carney, a great athlete who can shoot.

20. New York -- Rajan Rondo, 6-1, 170, Soph., Kentucky. New Coach Isiah Thomas wants to run, doesn’t have a real point guard on the lot and grabs this major talent who has only one problem: Can’t shoot a lick.

21. Phoenix -- Sergio Rodriguez, 6-2, 170, Adecco Estudiantes (Spain). Athletic point who can’t guard you, as the pros like to say, but the Suns don’t worry as much about that.

22. New Jersey -- Shawne Williams, 6-7 1/4 , 227, Fr., Memphis. A major prospect, although his freshman season was just OK. Like a lot of athletes, a lot depends on going from a marginal shooter (29.8% on three-pointers after dropping five on UCLA in the preseason NIT) to a good one.

23. New Jersey -- Jordan Farmar, 6-0 3/4 , 171, Soph., UCLA. Has to slow down and grow up, but backing up Jason Kidd is a good way to start.

24. Memphis -- Shannon Brown, 6-2, 210, Jr., Michigan State. Great athlete, physical enough to be a shooting guard. Improved to 39% on three-pointers last season.

25. Cleveland -- Maurice Ager, 6-3 1/4 , 203, Sr., Michigan State. Not a great athlete but a solid shooting guard from Tom Izzo’s hard-nosed program.

26. Lakers -- James White, 6-6, 190, Sr., Cincinnati. They go for a player with a major upside, which is hard to do after 25 picks. White is a gifted athlete, nicknamed “Flight,” who can shoot.

27. Phoenix -- James Augustine, 6-8 1/4 , 227, Sr., Illinois. Twiggy for a power forward, but he held up in the Big Ten. Can run too, making him ideal for the Suns.

28. Dallas -- Hassan Adams, 6-3, 220, Sr., Arizona. Late-pick slashers like Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels got them over the hump and this Westchester High grad is another, even if he still can’t shoot.

29. New York -- Quincy Douby, 6-2, 175, Jr., Rutgers. Point guard who likes to fire away, but he’s billed as second only to Redick as a shooter.

30. Portland -- Mike Gansey, 6-3, 205, Sr. West Virginia. Not a physical prodigy, but he’s a good all-around player who can shoot.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

TOP PICKS

1. Toronto

2. Chicago

3. Charlotte

4. Portland

5. Atlanta

26. Lakers

35. Clippers

*

NBA draft

Second-round order for today’s draft in New York (ESPN, 4 p.m. PDT):

*--* 31. Portland 46. Utah-g 32. Houston-a 47. Utah 33. Atlanta 48. Washington 34. CLIPPERS-b 49. Denver 35. Toronto 50. Charlotte-h 36. Minnesota-c 51. LAKERS 37. Minnesota 52. CLIPPERS 38. Golden State 53. Seattle-i 39. Milwaukee-d 54. New Jersey 40. Seattle 55. Cleveland 41. Orlando 56. Toronto-j 42. Cleveland-e 57. Minnesota-k 43. New Orleans 58. Dallas 44. Orlando-f 59. San Antonio 45. Indiana 60. Detroit

*--*

a-from New York; b-from Charlotte; c-from Boston; d-from Houston; e-from Philadelphia; f-from Milwaukee; g-from Chicago; h-from Sacramento; i-from Memphis; j-from Miami; k-from Phoenix.

Source: NBA.com