Gwynn and Ripken won’t be tainted with this brush

The hulking, hushed specter of a purported steroid user threatens to dampen the merriment today surrounding two other players expected to gain entry into the Baseball Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility by a landslide of votes.

This year the silent slugger is Mark McGwire, the favored ones Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr.

Next year, the year after, and for the foreseeable future, the names will change but the dynamic will remain the same.

Whose credentials will be called into question because of suspicions of performance-enhancing drug use?

Whose accomplishments will be deemed pure?

Voting is done by the Baseball Writers Assn. of America and there is roughly one ballot for each of McGwire’s 583 home runs. If the handful of surveys in recent weeks are accurate, the man whose 70-homer season in 1998 mesmerized the nation is expected to secure the votes of about 25% of the electorate, far short of the 75% needed for induction at Cooperstown, N.Y.

McGwire evaded questions about whether he used performance-enhancing drugs during the congressional steroid hearings of March 2005, squirming in his chair and nearly weeping during his testimony. He also admitted to using the steroid precursor androstenedione during the 1998 season, when he broke Roger Maris’ home run record, and was accused of steroid use by former teammate and admitted cheater Jose Canseco.

It’s almost as if McGwire is braced for the humiliation. He hasn’t spoken publicly in more than a year; he didn’t attend last year’s World Series, won by his former team, the St. Louis Cardinals, and he declined to play in a recent USC alumni game.

Gwynn and Ripken, meanwhile, have impeccable qualifications and untainted reputations. Not only should they easily get enough votes, one or both might come closer to being unanimous inductees than anyone in history. Apparently they won’t get every vote because Paul Ladewski of the Daily Southtown in suburban Chicago, citing concern about performance-enhancing drugs, submitted a blank ballot. Pitcher Tom Seaver holds the record percentage at 98.84, set in 1992 when he was selected on 425 of 430 ballots.

Gwynn batted .350 or better five years in a row, won eight batting titles and hit .338 over 20 seasons, the highest career average since Ted Williams’ .344 over 19 seasons ending in 1960.

Ripken played in 2,632 consecutive games -- breaking Lou Gehrig’s longstanding record by more than 500 games -- and is one of only four players to be named rookie of the year, most valuable player and All-Star game MVP. He was elected to start a record 17 All-Star games.

Both players easily eclipsed 3,000 hits, long considered a milestone that all but guarantees Hall of Fame entry.

However, all-time hits leader Pete Rose was not on the ballot because he is banned from the game for betting on baseball. And Rafael Palmeiro, due to become eligible in 2011, is expected to have at least as much difficulty getting votes as McGwire despite amassing 3,020 hits and 569 home runs.

Again, steroids.

The debate undoubtedly will become increasingly heated as Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and others reach eligibility and McGwire languishes in the purgatory of sub-75% vote totals. It’s possible more players will fall under suspicion when baseball’s investigation into alleged steroid use, a probe headed by former Senate majority leader George Mitchell, reaches its conclusions.

Somewhat forgotten in this year’s discussion are players who have been on the ballot for years. The vote totals of a handful have increased, their accomplishments gaining renewed appreciation when juxtaposed against those of the steroid generation.

Outfielder Jim Rice received 65% of the votes last year, and his 15-year window of eligibility expires in 2009. Although Rice hit only 382 home runs, he was perhaps the American League’s most feared slugger for more than a decade, beginning in 1975.

Andre Dawson is another outfielder whose stature among voters is rising. Although he batted only .279 in 21 seasons, Dawson hit 438 home runs, had 314 stolen bases and had one of the best throwing arms in baseball.

Among pitchers, Goose Gossage and Bert Blyleven have been getting close, and Lee Smith and Jack Morris have been inching up the ladder.

Gossage was a premier closer in the 1970s and 1980s, and right-handers batted .211 against him during his 22-year career; Blyleven had 287 victories and is fifth all-time with 3,701 strikeouts; Smith is second all-time in saves with 478; and Morris had 254 victories and pitched for three World Series champions.

Longtime Dodgers first baseman Steve Garvey and former Dodgers pitchers Orel Hershiser and Tommy John again are on the ballot, but received less than 30% of the vote last year.

They probably will be joined on the waiting list by McGwire, who ranks seventh on the career home run list but is about to bat leadoff in the lineup of suspected steroid users whose worthiness for immortality is far from assured.

steve.henson@latimes.com

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IN AND OUT?

Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn are considered sure things to get the 75% of the vote required for election to the Hall of Fame. A couple of holdovers who were close in last year’s voting:

* Outfielder Jim Rice (64.8%), the American League MVP in 1978, was 53 votes shy of the total he needed.

* One vote behind Rice was relief pitcher Goose Gossage (64.6%), a two-time fireman of the year who finished his career with 310 saves.