Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 11

Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver. Last week 7-7, overall 93-50 (.650); against spread 4-9-1, overall 62-80-1 (.437) See Farmer’s video picks online at our Fabulous Forum blog at latimes/sports:

Cleveland at Detroit

Records: Browns 1-8; Lions 1-8

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 705

Line: Lions by 3 1/2 . Over/Under: 38.5

The Lions are bad, but at least they’ve been competitive at home. The Browns are ranked last on both sides of the ball and have lost seven of eight road games by double digits. Lions 14, Browns 10.

Buffalo at Jacksonville

Records: Bills 3-6; Jaguars 5-4

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 706

Line: Jaguars by 9. Over/Under: 42.5

Rashean Mathis, the Jaguars’ best cornerback, is out after suffering a groin injury. A better team might take advantage of that. But not the reeling Bills. Jaguars 27, Buffalo 6.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Records: Steelers 6-3; Chiefs 2-7.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 707

Line: Steelers by 10. Over/Under: 40

The Steelers, who are a game down to Cincinnati, are already feeling a sense of urgency. That feeling has already come and gone in Kansas City. Steelers 31, Chiefs 10.

Indianapolis at Baltimore

Records: Colts 9-0; Ravens 5-4

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 704

Line: Colts by 1. Over/Under: 44

This could easily be the game where the Colts finally wind up with a blemish on their record, especially with the way they’re hurt in the secondary. But they just eke one out. Colts 21, Ravens 20.

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants

Records: Falcons 5-4; Giants 5-4

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Fox. DirecTV: 711

Line: Giants by 6 1/2 . Over/Under: 46

If the NFC East weren’t so up and down, the Giants would be cooked by now. They bounce back after their week off, though, and win for the first time in five games. Giants 20, Falcons 17.

San Francisco at Green Bay

Records: 49ers 4-5; Packers 5-4

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Fox. DirecTV: 709

Line: Packers by 6 1/2 . Over/Under: 42

The Packers did a terrific job against Tony Romo last week. If they can mount some semblance of that defensive effort against Alex Smith, they should be fine. Packers 27, 49ers 10.

Seattle at Minnesota

Records: Seahawks 3-6; Vikings 8-1

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Fox. DirecTV: 710

Line: Vikings by 10 1/2 . Over/Under: 46.5

The Seahawks have a patchwork offensive line, and the Vikings should be able to feast on that. They give problems to the best of the big men up front. Vikings 30, Seahawks 20.

Washington at Dallas

Records: Redskins 3-6; Cowboys 6-3

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Fox. DirecTV: 708

Line: Cowboys 11. Over/Under: 41.5

The Cowboys had a painful hiccup at Green Bay, but they should be able to regain composure at home. Redskins have the fifth-ranked defense but can wear down. Cowboys 30, Redskins 17.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Records: Saints 9-0; Buccaneers 1-8

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Fox. DirecTV: 712

Line: Saints by 11.5. Over/Under: 51

As St. Louis reminded the Saints last week, even the worst of NFL teams have the capability to pull off an upset -- or come close. New Orleans won’t let this get out of hand. Saints 30, Buccaneers 20.

Arizona at St. Louis

Records: Cardinals 6-3; Rams 1-8

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Fox. DirecTV: 713

Line: Cardinals by 9. Over/Under: 47

The Cardinals struggled on the road last year, but not in 2009. They have won their four away games by average of 16.3 points and St. Louis has a nine-game home losing streak. Cards 35, Rams 10.

N.Y. Jets at New England

Records: Jets 4-5; Patriots 6-3

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 715

Line: Patriots by 10.5. Over/Under: 45

Patriots come home to lick their wounds after a hugely disappointing loss at Indianapolis. They’re still an outstanding team, and have a chance to avenge Week 2 loss to Jets. Patriots 26, Jets 20.

Cincinnati at Oakland

Records: Bengals 7-2; Raiders 2-7

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 716

Line: Bengals by 9 1/2 . Over/Under: 36

The Bengals are no joke. They finally have a defense to back up Carson Palmer, so he can play it safer than he has in the past. Against Oakland, he can cut loose. Bengals 31, Raiders 6.

San Diego at Denver

Records: Chargers 6-3; Broncos 6-3

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 714

Line: Game is off. Over/Under: OFF

A month ago, the Chargers were convinced these Broncos wouldn’t fall apart like last year. They were wrong. San Diego is gaining confidence, Denver is hemorrhaging it. Chargers 27, Broncos 13.

Philadelphia at Chicago

Records: Eagles 5-4; Bears 4-5

When: Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4

Line: Eagles by 3. Over/Under: 45

If the Eagles can put the clamps on Bears running back Matt Forte, they will severely limit Chicago’s offense. And they have the defense to do it. Eagles 27, Bears 20.