Poker: Playing the outs, real or fake

Aggressive pros bet not only their real outs, but also their fake outs — the cards that hit the board that allow them to represent a bigger hand.

Naturally, other top players recognize the possibility and counter with aggressive play of their own, as top pro Eric Baldwin attempted in this hand from the World Poker Tour’s $15,000-buy-in Doyle Brunson Five Diamond World Poker Classic at Las Vegas’ Bellagio in 2009.

With blinds at $800-$1,600 plus a $200 ante, Baldwin raised to $4,000 from early position with pocket aces and was called in four spots.

“I’m thinking, ‘This could be a trouble spot for my aces,’” said Baldwin, winner of a World Series of Poker bracelet in 2009.

The flop came J-4-2, two spades. The small blind checked. Aggressive pro Tom Dwan bet $15,800 from the big blind.

“I don’t want to just call here, because if any of the three players behind me puts any more chips in the pot, I have no idea where they’re at,” said Baldwin, a pro from the UB.net online site.

“If I raise small, I can get a reaction out of those three players and possibly get away from my hand. But I can’t fold against Dwan because he can have too many draws there or just anything and turn it into a bluff. I also have the ace of spades, so he only has eight flush outs.”

Baldwin raised to $37,000. The next three players folded. Dwan called.

“When he just called, I put him on a pair that doesn’t believe me, or he’s playing a draw differently, or he has nothing and would try to represent a draw that hits on the turn,” Baldwin said.

The turn came the 4 of clubs, pairing the board. Dwan checked.

“The pot’s almost $100,000 and I have only $64,000,” Baldwin said. “If he bets all in on the river, I’m going to call him anyway, so I’m not going to be able to get away from the hand, so I might as well put it all in and force him to pay it.”

Dwan paid it and showed 7-4 of hearts for trips. The river came the 6 of diamonds. Baldwin was busted.

“The interesting decision is his calling on the flop after I raise him,” Baldwin said. “At that point, I’m raising with three people behind me. He has to know his 4s aren’t good.

“So what he’s thinking is, ‘I probably have five outs (two 4s and three 7s). There are also two spades out there, so if any spade hits the turn, I can go all in and represent the flush. If any ace hits the turn, I can represent the straight.’ So, in his mind, he has five real outs, as well as eight or nine flush outs and another six straight outs.”

“He probably incorrectly thought he could bluff me if a fake out hit on the turn. He just happened to hit one of his real outs.”

TABLE TALK

Trips: Three of a kind in which one card in your hand matches two on the board.