The Oscars are here (finally). Who’ll win?

A woman in a towering hat constructed of movie scene and Oscar cutouts holds an Oscar-themed umbrella.
Vivianne Robinson, who calls herself an “Oscars Super Fan,” visits the Dolby Theatre in advance of Sunday’s Academy Awards.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)

Ghosting is bad form, agreed. So, a heads-up, dear friends, that this newsletter will be going on hiatus for a couple of months after this week’s edition. Next time you hear from me, the days will be warmer, the flowers in full bloom and the Dodgers close to clinching the National League West.

I’m Glenn Whipp, columnist for the Los Angeles Times and host of The Envelope’s Friday newsletter. Ready to win your Oscar pool?

Final Oscar predictions for all 23 categories

Did Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” have the best picture Oscar in the bag when it opened in theaters last July?

All the necessary building blocks were in place. Ecstatic reviews? Almost unanimous! Packed theaters? Yes! To the eventual tune of nearly $1 billion worldwide.


A Great Man biopic? (Emphasis on “man” ... the academy is still a bit of a boys’ club.) Three hours’ worth ... but also one that deconstructs the genre with its complicated look at the brilliant, tortured physicist of its title.

A Nolan movie containing a timeline that was easy to follow and a sound mix that enabled audiences to (mostly) understand what was being said? Crazy, but true!

It would have been a bit impulsive to declare the race over and done before the fall film festivals premiered their slates of contenders, before “Napoleon” landed in theaters (R.I.P.), before the leaves changed and pumpkin spice latte season began in earnest. (Or does that start in July now?)

But now that “Oppenheimer” is the 11th movie to sweep the Producers, Directors and Screen Actors Guild awards ... well ... as Oppie tells his wife, Kitty, take in the sheets. It’s over. Of the 10 previous films to hit that awards season trifecta — a list that includes “No Country for Old Men,” “Argo” and last year’s winner, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — only one, “Apollo 13,” failed to win the Oscar.

“Oppenheimer” is not “Apollo 13.”

The question now, heading into the 96th Academy Awards on Sunday, is how many Oscars will “Oppenheimer” win from its 13 nominations? (Only three movies have ever exceeded that haul: “All About Eve,” “La La Land” and “Titanic” — all earning 14 nods.)

How many will it end up with? Let’s count as we go through my final Oscar predictions for all 23 categories. I’ve long said that if I ever get a perfect score, I’m going to drop the mic, pack my bags and, I don’t know, walk the earth. So if you don’t hear from me in May, it’s not because I’m ghosting you. I would never do that.

An illustration shows the outline of an Oscar all in black surrounded by the titles of best picture nominees.
Some Oscar categories are locks, others ... not so much.
(Alex Rhodes / For The Times)

What movie would have won the casting Oscar this year?

Last month, the motion picture academy’s board of governors announced the creation of a competitive Oscar for casting. You won’t see an acceptance speech for another two years, when the 2026 ceremony honors the releases of 2025. But Times film editor Josh Rothkopf and I have already started thinking about how such an award would have played out this year and at ceremonies past, and how the addition of a new category could affect future campaigning.

What movie would have won a casting Oscar this year? What movie should have won the casting Oscar this year? And what makes for great casting, choices that, you know, really tie the room together. Josh and I batted around these questions in a recent column and, spoiler alert, we did not always agree.

A man talks on a landline phone looking concerned while another man in a suit sits at a desk behind him in "A Serious Man."
Michael Stuhlbarg in “A Serious Man.” The Coen brothers’ movies are always impeccably cast.
(Wilson Webb / Focus Features)

Looking for more in-depth coverage on all things Envelope?

Shop our collection of The Envelope magazines today.

What should win at the Oscars on Sunday?

First, it’s worth noting that Sunday’s ceremony will begin at 4 p.m. PT, an hour earlier than usual. This, coupled with the [groan] “spring forward” of returning to Daylight Saving Time, is going to throw me off ... I just know it. Times columnist Mary McNamara and I will be live-blogging during the Oscar ceremony. I’ll try to keep up. Maybe I’ll walk the earth ... or, at least, around the block beforehand to get my head straight and make sure that whatever condition my condition is in is OK.


My pal Amy Nicholson will no doubt be watching the show and recently wrote a terrific column offering her thoughts about the films and performances that should win on Sunday as well as worthy choices that should have been contenders. Any critic who loves “Robot Dreams” is a critic I want to hear more from.

In the animated "Robot Dreams," a dog and his robot friend get a hot dog in Central Park.
A dog and a robot become inseparable pals in Pablo Berger’s “Robot Dreams,” nominated for best animated feature.


I’d love to hear from you. Email me at

Can’t get enough about awards season? Follow me at @glennwhipp on Twitter.