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Stat corner: The Favorite Toy (pitchers)

The Favorite Toy is a method invented by Bill James that takes into account a player’s age and performance level to predict how likely he is to reach career milestones. Last week we looked at hitters, this week we look at the top 10 active pitchers in wins and strikeouts and the chances, represented as a percentage, that Favorite Toy predicts they have of reaching 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts.

300 wins

1. Bartolo Colon, 245 wins, 0%

2. CC Sabathia, 243, 8%

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3. Justin Verlander, 198, 4%

4. Zack Greinke, 183, 12%

5. Jon Lester, 171, 1%

6. Felix Hernandez, 168, 0%

7. Max Scherzer, 154, 8%

8. Cole Hamels, 152, 0%

9. Ervin Santana, 149, 0%

10. Clayton Kershaw, 147, 17%

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3,000 strikeouts

1. CC Sabathia, 2,923 K’s, 97%

2. Justin Verlander, 2,599, 97%

3. Bartolo Colon, 2,522, 0%

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4. Felix Hernandez, 2,436, 59%

5. Zack Greinke, 2,373, 83%

6. Cole Hamels, 2,341, 56%

7. Max Scherzer, 2,338, 97%

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8. Clayton Kershaw, 2,203, 97%

9. James Shields, 2,184, 7%

10. Jon Lester, 2,135, 49%

Houston.mitchell@latimes.com

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Twitter: @latimeshouston


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