Racing! A look at Bob Baffert’s 2-year-old success

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we try and remember when Del Mar was that wet.

It’s really difficult to fathom how deep Bob Baffert’s group of 2-year-olds can actually be. The question also occurred to Ron Flatter, the horse racing impresario at VSiN in Las Vegas. Ron knows his stuff and also hosts a free weekly podcast called The Ron Flatter Racing Pod. (You can access it here.) Definitely worth a listen, and did I mention free?

He sent along this list of 2-year-olds that Baffert has started this year. Of the 27 that started, 18 have won a race. That’s a difficult number to contemplate. He’s got the current Kentucky Derby favorite and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile named Game Winner. He’s got five horses that sold for more than half-a mil. (Tale of the Union, $925,000; Der Lu, $900,000; Mucho Gusto, $625,000; Much Better, $600,000; Roadster, $525,000)

If you ask Bob what’s the difference maker, he usually defers, saying great owners. So, if you look into the ownership groups, you would expect to find just a few of the most well-heeled horse buyers. Well, based on the fact if there is one owner in common, there were 16 different ownership groups. What that means is if one person is in more than one ownership group made up of different people, I counted that as the same ownership group.

Leading the list is Gary and Mary West, who campaigned West Coast, with four horses (Game Winner, Fighting Mad, Power Player and Highlight Reel). The Baoma Group, which is really Charles and Susan Chu, have three (Message, Der Lu and Qahira). Michael Lund Petersen, who founded Pandora Jewelry, has two (Mucho Gusto and Tale of the Union). Longtime owners Karl Watson, Michael Pegram and Paul Weitman have two (Dark Prince and Midnight Mystery) and George Bolton and Michael Meegan, separately, each have ownership in two different horses.

That’s a lot of calls Baffert has to make to different owners. Clearly, there is more at work here than great owners. Baffert’s operation is geared to 2 and 3 year olds with the ultimate prize of the Kentucky Derby, which he has won five times and the Triple Crown twice.

You can’t argue with Baffert’s success. Extraordinary. Just take a look at Ron’s chart.

First-time starting 2-year-olds in 2018

Date Track Horse Finish Record Top win

11/25 DMR-7 Qahira (f) 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

11/24 DMR-2 Highlight Reel 6th 1-0-0-0

11/17 DMR-2 Figure Eight 2nd 1-0-1-0

11/17 DMR-1 Coliseum 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

11/ 9 DMR-4 Trojan Magic 6th 1-0-0-0

11/ 3 SA-7 Count Di Luna 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

10/13 SA-4 Cruel Intention 1st 2-2-0-0 Golden St Juv

10/ 8 SA-2 Metropol 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

9/29 SA-4 Power Player 3rd 1-0-0-1

9/29 SA-1 Improbable 1st 2-2-0-0 Street Sense

9/20 LRC-3 Mucho Gusto 1st 2-2-0-0 G3 Bob Hope

9/ 8 LRC-7 Raneem (f) 8th 1-0-0-0

9/ 7 LRC-4 Midnight Mystery 3rd 2-0-0-1

9/ 2 DMR-5 Message (f) 5th 1-0-0-0

9/ 1 DMR-9 Magic On Tap 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

9/ 1 DMR-9 Admiral Brown 7th 1-0-0-0

9/ 1 DMR-5 Much Better 1st 3-1-1-0 MSW

8/26 DMR-4 Tale Of The Union 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

8/25 DMR-1 Fighting Mad 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

8/18 DMR-9 Game Winner 1st 4-4-0-0 BC Juv (3 G1s)

8/11 DMR-6 The Aurelia Factor (f) 1st 1-1-0-0 MSW

8/ 5 DMR-2 Der Lu (f) 2nd 2-1-1-0 MSW

7/29 DMR-6 Roadster 1st 2-1-0-1 MSW

7/28 DMR-1 Chasing Yesterday1st 4-3-0-0 Desi Arnaz

7/28 DMR-1 Honeyfromthesouth 2nd 3-0-2-1

7/22 DMR-7 Mother Mother (f) 1st 3-2-1-0 Rags To Riches

6/29 LRC-3 Dark Prince 5th 5-1-0-1 Mdn Clmg

More on the SA program

The recent discussion about the wide-format Santa Anita program and if it’s is returning has sparked more discussion. Haven’t gotten an email from anyone supporting it. But, I did get one from Jeff Tufts, the former morning-line maker and clocker at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. You’ll remember a week or so ago, he gave us an historical perspective on what Accelerate has accomplished this year.

Anyway, he reports that Hollywood Park tried a wide-format program in the early 1970s. There were no past performances but instead expanded handicapping information and feature stories.

“The fans didn’t like it, though,” Tufts said. “The format was dropped after one year.”

Del Mar review

Thursday’s card was a complete disaster because of the rain. All four turf races were moved to the dirt, which, of course, was the right move. But it did turn a reasonably uninteresting card into one to completely avoid. Hey, it’s California in the (almost) winter. There were 23 scratches on the day, with 20 of them in races coming off the turf.

So, with all that said, we’ll dispense with the feature race of the day, because we had originally chosen a turf race.

Del Mar preview

Friday’s card should be mostly about making sure things dry out for the weekend, which means we’re talking about the turf course. There are three races scheduled on the grass but unless things are toast-dry, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number drop. The track has to protect the integrity of the Grade 1 turf stakes on Saturday and Sunday.

We’ll call the sixth the feature, currently scheduled to be an allowance/optional claimer for 3-year-olds going a mile on the turf. There is no real favorite but morning-line maker Russell Hudak had to give it to someone and that turned out to be North County Guy at 7-2. He’s 3-for-10 this year including an allowance win last out. He’s mostly been running at a claiming level. Richard Baltas is the trainer and Flavien Prat is the rider.

Second favorite, at 5-1, is Extrordinary Jerry for Doug O’Neill and Rafael Bejarano. He is 1-for-8 lifetime, but has run a couple of stakes races. His only win was a maiden claimer last year.

Here’s what the program says are the field sizes, but don’t count on it, in order: 5, 8, 7, 9, 7, 11 (1 also eligible), 7, 10.

Bob Ike’s DMR play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 5 Rapid Red (3-1)

Don't know if the race will stay on turf or not but this recent claim from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn is sharp (good efforts in last two starts with the addition of blinkers) and handles any surface. The eight-time winner has won on turf, dirt and wet, so a potential change in surface should not affect him.

Thursday’s result: Wilshire Dude (7-2 in seventh race) ran very well but had to settle for third after being hounded on the front end through quick fractions. He will be tough to deny next time in a similar spot.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“Graded derby winners Jess My Kiss, A Political Lady and Black Fryday are among the sophomores in the trials to the Grade 2, $162,850 Southern California Derby on Friday. Thirty-three runners will be in the Derby trials with the 10 fastest times advancing to the 400-yard final on Dec. 14. The opening trial features Chance To Fire and Platki, two of the most talented sophomores yet to win a stakes races. Chance To Fire has qualified in five graded stakes races in his career.

“Platki, ridden by Jesus Rios Ayala for trainer Terry Knight, posted the fastest qualifying time to the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity last year before running fifth to champion KVN Corona in the final. Platki took the rest of his juvenile year off before returning in August. He'll enter Friday's trial after a powerful half-length allowance victory on Oct. 28.

“Black Fryday, winner of the Governor's Cup Derby on July 28, headlines the second trial. The son of Favorite Cartel is looking to qualify to his fifth derby final this year. He was second to KVN Corona in the El Primero Del Ano Derby and also competed in the Grade 3 PCQHRA Breeders Derby and Grade 1 Los Alamitos Super Derby.

“Jess My Kiss won the Grade 1 Los Alamito Winter Derby at the start of the year, but has struggled to repeat that great effort. A Political Lady has been one of the most consistent sophomore fillies this season. The daughter of Apollitical Jess has won five-of-nine starts in 2018 with her top wins coming in the Grade 3 La Primera Del Ano Derby, Vandys Flash Handicap and La Pacific Handicap. She'll be in the final trial on Friday.

“The Grade 1, $100,000 AQHA Distaff Challenge Championship will be held on Sunday night. The race was rescheduled following a starting gate malfunction on Nov. 17, which lead to the stewards declaring the race a “no-contest.” The 10 mares that were originally entered in the AQHA Distaff Challenge Championship have re-entered the 400-yard race, and post position assignments on Sunday remain the same.

“As for the purse money, there was a “no-contest” even distribution of the purse to the mares entered. In addition, Ed Allred, the owner of Los Alamitos Race Course, donated $100,000 to contest the Distaff on Sunday. The mares will be racing for the same full purse, prize distribution and graded stakes black type.

“I am very appreciative of Dr. Allred for affording us the opportunity to reschedule this race,” said Janet VanBebber, AQHA chief racing officer. ‘In addition, because of Dr. Allred’s generosity, the mares will be able to compete for a Grade 1 event, which is of significant importance to horseman. This generosity is a strong testament to Dr. Allred’s commitment to quarter-horse racing.’

“One Sweet Racy is one of the leading contenders in Sunday’s Distaff Championship. Trained by Chris O’Dell, the 4-year-old mare was lights out when winning the AQHA California Distaff Challenge Stakes on Aug. 12. Bred in Missouri by Sunflower Supply Co, One Sweet Racy then finished second to Jess Ravin in the Grade 1 Mildred Vessels Memorial Handicap. She also finished second in the Grade 1, All American Derby to champion Hold Air Hostage last year.

“One Sweet Racy, who has earned $60,156 from five starts this year and more than $324,423 in her career, drew post 5 and will be ridden by Eduardo Nicasio. She’s the even money favorite in Ed Burgart’s morning line.

“Duck Dash N Go, a winner of 12-of-24 career starts, is the second choice at 7-2 odds. The Oklahoma-bred mare by Corona Fast Dash is a three-time local stakes winner and twice she’s beaten the opposite sex. She’ll start from post six with Jose Nicasio up.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 7 The Chadinator (5-2)

With trainer Jerry Wallace adding the blinkers, I expect this gelding to be more forwardly positioned early than he was when third with class drop to this level in last outing. He draws a comfortable outside post and jockey Johnny Allen can gain good position behind an expected solid pace due to the presence of speedster The Tattoo Kid.

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

MOON KITTY had good early speed and dueled inside, came a bit off thee rail into the stretch, drifted in slightly from the whip a sixteenth out, fought back inside, came out a bit from the left handed pressure nearing the wire to bump S Y SKY and regain the lead and gamely prevailed. S Y SKY bumped at the start, dueled outside MOON KITTY, drifted out a bit into the stretch, battled outside that rival and put a head in front a sixteenth out, was bumped by that one nearing the wire and edged late. IPPODAMIA'S GIRL stalked a bit off the rail, came out some in the stretch and bested the others. NINE POINT NINE stalked outside a rival, came a bit wide into the stretch and was outfinished for the show. SENSIBLE MYTH bumped at the start, chased a bit off the rail then inside on the backstretch and turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and also weakened. Following a stewards' inquiry, MOON KITTY was disqualified and placed second for interference nearing the wire. S Y SKY wore calks.

RICKEY B stalked off the rail, bid three deep between foes on the turn and into the stretch, battled between rivals through the drive and gamely prevailed under some urging. LUCK'S ROYAL FLUSH dueled outside a rival then between horses on the turn, gained a slim lead a bit off the rail in the stretch, drifted in a sixteenth out, fought back but was edged late. MIDNIGHT SPECIAL stalked outside the winner, bid four wide on the turn and into the stretch, continued three wide in deep stretch and held third. KID CANTINA saved ground stalking the pace, awaited room along the rail into the stretch and to midstretch, came out for room and finished well but was edged for the show. BEA'S BOY settled off the rail then inside on the backstretch and turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SQUARE PEGGY had good early speed and dueled inside, came a bit off the rail in upper stretch and fought back, drifted inward in midstretch and weakened.

INCENSED saved ground stalking the pace, bid along the rail into the stretch to gain the lead, inched away in midstretch, came a bit off the fence in deep stretch and won clear under urging. R CHA CHA pulled his way between horses to press the pace and was in tight into the turn, continued off the rail, came out four wide into the stretch, was three deep past midstretch and gained the place. ALLABOUTMIKE chased off the rail then between foes leaving the backstretch and into the turn, stalked off the fence on the turn and five wide into the stretch, drifted in some but went on willingly late. SHORT OF EZ dueled inside then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch and on the turn, was between horses into the stretch, drifted back to the inside a sixteenth out and was outfinished for a minor share. ARISTOCRATIC dueled three deep then outside a rival on the turn, fought back three wide into the stretch and also was outkicked for a minor award. P CLUB chased outside then three deep leaving the backstretch and into the turn, dropped back off the rail on the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. ARISTOCRATIC and P CLUB wore calks.

LIL MILO dueled outside a rival, fought back on the turn, led again into the stretch and drew clear under some urging. CAPTAIN BUZZKILL settled off the rail then angled in on the turn, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and gained the place. PERFECT TALE chased outside then three deep, continued outside a rival on the turn and four wide into the stretch and edged a foe for third. SIDEPOCKET ACTION had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, put a head in front leaving the turn, fought back into the stretch and was edged for the show. LEROY PEGASUS stalked inside then a bit off the rail to the stretch and did not rally. EMOTIONAL RIDE close up stalking the pace outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. BLESS HIS HEART stumbled at the start to be away slowly, pulled and moved up inside on the backstretch, came out some on the turn, was alongside a rival leaving the turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch.

OFFSHORE AFFAIR stalked three deep then off the rail, continued outside a rival leaving the backstretch, bid three wide on the second turn, took the lead outside the runner-up a quarter mile out, inched away under urging in the stretch and held. UNUSUAL RIDER broke outward, dueled inside, fought back on the second turn then came on again along the rail late. UNUSUAL ANGEL settled outside a rival then a bit off the rail,, angled in on the second turn, came out into the stretch and edged a rival for third. HE BE MOJO RISIN broke a bit slowly, angled in and chased inside, came out into the stretch, split horses in midstretch and was edged for the show. BRIX angled in and dueled outside a rival, was between horses nearing the quarter pole, dropped back into the stretch, drifted in and weakened. M C BURKEY four wide early, chased three deep then off the rail, dropped back and angled in on the second turn, gave way and was eased in the stretch.

GOODWILLAMBASSADOR stalked a bit off the rail then bid outside a rival on the backstretch, took the lead leaving the second turn, fought back off the rail in the final furlong and gamely held under urging. TIDAL EFFECT saved ground chasing the pace, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, bid outside the winner in midstretch and continued gamely between foes in deep stretch and to the wire. MONGOLIAN GROOM a step slow to begin, settled outside a rival, also came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, bid outside the top pair past midstretch and also continued gamely to the end. AYACARA (GB) saved ground chasing the pace, went around a rival in deep stretch and lacked the needed rally. OH MAN sped to the early lead, angled in on the first turn and set the pace inside, dueled from the rail on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened. SMOKIN B chased outside a rival, dropped back between horses on the second turn and also weakened.

COMMA SISTER three deep early, chased outside a rival, bid three deep on the second turn, took the lead outside the pacesetter past the quarter pole, inched away in the stretch and held on gamely under left handed urging. RINSE AND REPEAT chased three wide then outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch, bid outside the winner a sixteenth out but could not get by. WILSHIRE DUDE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the second turn, continued inside in the stretch and bested the others. ALL I CAN SAY pulled between horses early then stalked a bit off the rail, continued inside on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. GRAY ADMIRAL settled off the rail, went outside a rival on the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked a rally. FACTS MATTER angled in and pulled between horses then dueled outside a rival, took the lead on the backstretch, battled between horses on the second turn, fell back some leaving that turn and weakened. STYLISTICS UNITED saved ground stalking the pace, fell back leaving the second turn and into the stretch and also weakened. WILSHIRE DUDE wore calks.

CONCORD JET broke out onto foes, sped to the early lead, inched away and set the pace inside and held on gamely under urging. VIOLENT BEHAVIOR stalked outside then alongside a rival on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and finished well. THIN LINE was in a good position stalking the pace outside then three deep, came four wide into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. BULL FIGHTER broke in and bumped a rival then was bumped again early, raced close up tracking the winner a bit off the rail to the stretch, was edged for third. MAD AT MONEY a step slow to begin, settled inside then a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn, came out in upper stretch and improved position. TANKER bumped at the start then again between rivals in the opening strides, chased three deep then outside a rival or off the rail, came out into the stretch and did not rally. MINISTERSDON'TLIE broke a bit slowly then was bumped and steadied when squeezed back, settled inside, continued along the rail on the turn and into the stretch and did not rally. SUITE ALONSO bumped and steadied when forced out at the start, stalked a bit of the rail, angled in leaving the turn and weakened. MAGIC BRO settled outside then off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the start but made no change when they ruled that although the winner came out, the horses affected by the incident were well beaten and BULL FIGHTER contributed to the trouble.