Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 4

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 14-2 (.875); season 30-18 (.625). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 11-5 (.688); season 30-18 (.625). New England and Tennessee are off this week.

NY Jets (2-1) vs. Miami (1-2) in London

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Jets 20, Dolphins 13

TV: Channel 2.

Line: Jets by 1 1/2. O/U: 42.

Jets will bounce back against rudderless Dolphins behind tough defensive effort and not too many mistakes by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. It appears Joe Philbin’s days are numbered as Miami’s coach.

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Houston (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 35, Texans 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Falcons by 6. O/U: 47.

The Falcons are 3-0 after coming back in the fourth quarter of every game. They shouldn’t have to scramble back in this one, considering Houston just doesn’t have that much offensive firepower.

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Oakland (2-1) at Chicago (0-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Raiders 27, Bears 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Bears are a mess, and now they’re starting to take apart their team. The Raiders, on the other hand, are starting to gather some momentum behind Derek Carr and an upgraded receiving corps.

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Kansas City (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bengals 28, Chiefs 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Bengals by 4. O/U: 44.

Bengals have done a respectable job versus the run, and that will be key against Jamaal Charles. Andy Dalton has been on fire for Cincinnati, and A.J. Green will present problems for the Chiefs’ defense.

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Jacksonville (1-2) at Indianapolis (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Colts 28, Jaguars 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Colts by 9 1/2. O/U: 48.

The Colts haven’t ironed out their problems, and Andrew Luck has yet to get on track. But Jacksonville just isn’t very good, and Indianapolis, fortunate to be in the AFC South, picks up its second win.

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NY Giants (1-2) at Buffalo (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 31, Giants 27

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Bills by 5 1/2. O/U: 46.

The Giants were hoping to get wide receiver Victor Cruz back, but they won’t. Buffalo has a defensive front capable of getting after Eli Manning. Pick the team that actually plays in New York.

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Carolina (3-0) at Tampa Bay (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 20, Buccaneers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Panthers by 3. O/U: 39 1/2.

Carolina tight end Greg Olsen is a huge target and should give Tampa Bay problems. Cam Newton is not an elite quarterback, but he should be able to outplay Buccaneers rookie Jameis Winston.

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Philadelphia (1-2) at Washington (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 24, Eagles 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Eagles by 3. O/U: 46.

The Eagles are trying to regain their balance after stumbling out of the gate. Washington isn’t a very good team, but it should be able to grind out yards on the ground in this one and control the clock.

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Cleveland (1-2) at San Diego (1-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 31, Browns 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Chargers by 7 1/2. O/U: 45.

Chargers will rebound at home after a couple of rough weeks on the road. They will do a better job of protecting Philip Rivers. Cleveland is too erratic and needs to figure out its quarterback situation.

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St. Louis (1-2) at Arizona (3-0)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Cardinals 28, Rams 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Cardinals by 7. O/U: 42 1/2.

Rams’ front four matches up well with anyone, so they probably will get to Carson Palmer a few times. But St. Louis doesn’t have explosive players and Arizona should contain the run.

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Minnesota (2-1) at Denver (3-0)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Broncos 27, Vikings 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Broncos by 6 1/2. O/U: 43.

Peyton Manning isn’t picking apart teams the way he does when he’s rolling, but Denver’s defense is so solid it’s tough to see Broncos losing this at home. Adrian Peterson has been effective, though.

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Green Bay (3-0) at San Francisco (1-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Packers 35, 49ers 20

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Packers by 8. O/U: 48 1/2.

Sometimes these lopsided matchups don’t wind up being huge blowouts. Still, Aaron Rodgers is in midseason form, and Colin Kaepernick is coming unglued and making terrible decisions.

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Dallas (2-1) at New Orleans (0-3)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Cowboys 35, Saints 20

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Saints by 4 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

DeMarco Murray has to miss that Cowboys line, which is now pushing open big holes for Joseph Randle. Brandon Weeden isn’t bad when he has time. New Orleans is in a downward spiral.

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Detroit (0-3) at Seattle (1-2)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Lions 21, Seahawks 20

TV: ESPN

Line: Seahawks by 9 1/2. O/U: 43.

The temptation is to go with Seattle, but the Seahawks are lacking something on offense — led lowly Chicago by just 6-0 at halftime — and now Marshawn Lynch is hurting. Desperate Detroit has weapons.