Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 4 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 12-4 (.750); season 31-17 (.646). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 13-3 (.812); season 30-18 (.625).

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Green Bay (1-2) at Chicago (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bears 27, Packers 24

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Packers by 1 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Aaron Rodgers is reassuring fans that the Packers are going to be OK, and maybe that means a turnaround. Still, if Chicago’s receivers are healthy, here’s betting the Bears come away with a win.

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Detroit (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 27, Jets 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Lions by 1 1/2. O/U: 45.

Hard not to like the Lions, who are finally playing to their talent level. They don’t have to blitz to get pressure, and they’ve got weapons on offense. They’re going to be tough.

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Tampa Bay (0-3) at Pittsburgh (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 28, Buccaneers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Steelers by 7 1/2. O/U: 45.

The Steelers woke up on offense in a rout of Carolina, but the defense lost some key players — a defense that had its issues in the first place. Still, Tampa Bay’s offense is worse than Pittsburgh’s defense.

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Carolina (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 24, Panthers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Ravens by 3 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Carolina started strong, then took a step back. The Ravens are having a tumultuous season off the field, but they were able to set that aside and knock off a pretty solid Cleveland team on the road.

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Buffalo (2-1) at Houston (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 21, Texans 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Texans by 3. O/U: 41.

A lot depends on the health of back Arian Foster, because Houston is a different team without him. The Bills are capable of winning on the road, particularly in light of that strong defensive front.

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Tennessee (1-2) at Indianapolis (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Colts 31, Titans 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Colts by 7 1/2. O/U: 46.

Tennessee is looking a little overrated. Indianapolis has confidence back after a dominating performance against Jacksonville. Andrew Luck continues rise into rarefied air of elite quarterbacks.

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Miami (1-2) at Oakland (0-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 18, Raiders 16

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Dolphins by 4. O/U: 41.

The Dolphins still have a way to go, but put up 17 against Oakland and you’re probably going to win. Miami’s pass rush could give Raiders rookie Derek Carr some problems in this London matchup.

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Jacksonville (0-3) at San Diego (2-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 35, Jaguars 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Chargers by 13. O/U: 44 1/2.

The temptation is to pick San Diego big, except QB Blake Bortles is making his Jacksonville debut, after looking so good this summer, and the Jaguars have a pass rush … oh, who are we kidding?

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Atlanta (2-1) at Minnesota (1-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Falcons 27, Vikings 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 47.

The Vikings may be a bit more explosive with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback as opposed to Matt Cassel, but the Falcons are rested and their offense has found its groove.

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Philadelphia (3-1) at San Francisco (1-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

49ers 31, Eagles 27

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.

Line: 49ers by 5 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

It seems the 49ers have taken a step back, but they’re missing key components on defense and should eventually recover. The Eagles are class of NFC East, but 49ers are due to bounce back.

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New Orleans (1-2) at Dallas (2-1)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Saints 28, Cowboys 24

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 53.

Dallas is nothing special; knew that. But Saints were supposedly untouchable at home, and were so-so at best against struggling Vikings. Even on road, take Drew Brees over Tony Romo any day.

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New England (2-1) at Kansas City (1-2)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Chiefs 23, Patriots 21

TV: ESPN.

Line: Patriots by 3 1/2. O/U: 45.

The Chiefs were ravaged by injuries, yet went to Miami and won convincingly. The Patriots are vulnerable, particularly now that teams are better able to get to Tom Brady. The Chiefs can do that.