Racing! Mike Rogers’ version of history

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we welcome Rob Henie with a handicapping lesson.

One of the great hidden pleasures of following horse racing is finding these hidden sources of information. One of my favorites is the weekly Ron Flatter Racing Pod. I’ve mentioned it before and it can be found at most sites that carry podcasts, and it’s free. You can find it here.

Well, this week one of his guests was Mike Rogers, president of racing for the Stronach Group. Rogers and Tim Ritvo, the company’s COO, were on a boondoggle at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris, where Flatter ran into Rogers, who agreed to be on his podcast. (By the way, my best boondoggle was when I was at the Chicago Tribune and went to Australia the year before the Olympics to secure hotels. It’s not like you don’t do work on a boondoggle, for example, Ritvo and Rogers were “recruiting for the Pegasus.”)

Ron asked the question, given what happened at Santa Anita, what would you have done different.

I’ll save my comments for later, but this is his slightly edited answer.

“We tried to self-reflect on all the things that took place,” Rogers said. “Looking back on Santa Anita, look we had terrible weather. It was a multi-factorial event that took place. [There was] a press corps that had a big reach and it got in the mainstream market.

“We had a cluster and we had a high-profile horse, but if you truly take a step back and look at Santa Anita’s numbers, it’s no worse than it’s been the last 10 years. I’m not saying that’s good.

“Clearly the story got traction this year and it made everyone take a step back and self-reflect and look at what we can do to make it better. That’s all positive and that’s good.

“To look at the event and say we were doing things wrong, other than that cluster, overall Santa Anita was not performing any worse than it has been in previous years or against any other race track in North America. But I have to say that’s still not good. We need to be better.”

(Back to me) Oh, boy. First, I’m hoping my friend Ron didn’t get toppled over as Rogers’ nose started to grow as his answer progressed.

Let’s look at how he twice just dismissed the “cluster” of deaths. He said “other than that cluster.” Isn’t that like saying, except for the iceberg, people had a good time on the Titanic? Mike, you can’t dismiss the “cluster.”

He said, “… if you truly take a step back and look at Santa Anita’s numbers, it’s no worse than it’s been the last 10 years.”

So, let’s look at the racing death rates at Santa Anita for the last 10 years, per 1,000 starts, which means it doesn’t include training fatalities:

2009: 0.84

2010: 1.53

2011: 2.94

2012: 2.60

2013: 2.19

2014: 2.28

2015: 2.13

2016: 2.83

2017: 2.36

2018: 2.04

What was it during the winter/spring meeting? 3.17

What was it before the track shut down for 24 days? 4.40

What was it after the track re-opened and there were reforms? 1.86, higher than the national average of 1.68. In fairness, that is better than the Santa Anita 10-year average.

How does it compare to other tracks? Well last year, there were some such as Hawthorne (2.99) and Churchill Downs (2.70) that were higher than Santa Anita (2.04). But then there is Del Mar (0.79), Saratoga (0.97), Belmont Park (0.98), Gulfstream (1.41), Aqueduct (1.57).

Now, I’ll be the first to say that Santa Anita is working its rear end off trying to make the track as safe as it can be. I’m totally convinced safety is the track’s top priority. Talk to the new Santa Anita boss, Aidan Butler, and he’ll make some safety reference quicker than Ritvo and Rogers can say “multi-factorial.”

In a Q&A with the Los Angeles Times, Butler admitted “mistakes were made.” Rogers, in another part of the interview with Flatter, said:

“I don’t want to say anything negative as to how we’ve done things in the past. We’ve had a lot of criticisms and I’m aware of those criticisms [such as] we’re running too many races or we’re worrying about field sizes too much or worrying about the bottom line too much. I think those criticisms were heard and … [we made] some of those changes. We had to look in the mirror as well.”

All I’m saying is part of moving forward is understanding the history of the past.

Handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the fifth race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“The race is a maiden special weight at 5 ½ furlongs. The WCHR has been known for years, for our first timers. We never look at a workout report, nor get any ‘inside information,’ but rather, years of noting the patterns of trainers, understanding who’s well meant, and who’s prepping for another race. When you combine this knowledge, with strong rationale, the results are often favorable. (In 2018 from Aug to Dec, there were 23 debut winners in So. Cal, and we had 22 of ‘em.) Top selection to begin this new day of racing, is RICHIES NOBLE GIRL (#1). She makes her debut for Richard Baltas, and she’s bred to not only run on the turf, but also to run all day, I mean, 1 ¼ to 1 ½ miles, etc. There’s also plenty of foundation, meaning, they could easily debut her going two turns on the surface she’s bred for, but instead, they run on the main track going 5 ½ furlongs? When we look at the worktab, the drills are much quicker than usually seen from Baltas, thus, when we consider all attributes, there’s no question she’s well meant. She shows a precocious side, quicker than her breeding would suggest, looking to break her maiden before the menu of races becomes much more vast, compared lack of ultra-long maiden races around here of 1 ⅛ or longer, not exactly commonplace. ROADRUNNER’S HONOR (#9) debuts for Doug O’Neill, and back around 2005-2006, we used to see quicker drills from Doug with regard to his live first timers (often ridden by Tyler Baze). These days, not as quick, but this one’s working super sharp, telling us there’s nothing Doug can do about, a horse just naturally fast. Not a fan of Rafael Bejarano on the front end, but if he can settle this filly just off the leaders, they can offer a nice final ¼ here.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 1-9-10-8

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 2,5

“First Timers:

“2 Quiet Secretary - Will need the effort for Ian Kruljac.

“4 Crazy Speighty - It appears she’s getting better of late for Bob Baffert, but this is a salty group and we’re more inclined to give the first effort.

“5 My Girl Pearl - Drills are just fine, but again, a decent group and since she’ll be part of the early stampede for the lead, as opposed to offering a contrary style to the masses, we’ll give the race.

“7 Map Maker - Nothing wrong with the drills, but here’s where you can beat Baffert, in a competitive field going very short. It’s when runners aren’t running to the entry box when faced with a sharp Baffert runner going 6 ½ or 7, sprint distances usually rewarding the better horse. We’ll try and beat.

“8 Miss Kitness - Drills for Shelbe Ruis are nice, Mario Gutierrez up is interesting, and we’ll give her a legitimate look here.

“10 Drama for Mama - Solid drills for Richard Mandella, apprentice Jorge Velez riding super, wouldn’t surprise one bit.

“TOP PICK: RICHIES NOBLE GIRL (#1 5-1 Prat) Debut

“SECOND CHOICE: ROADRUNNER’S HONOR (#9 7-2 Bejarano) Debut”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

There were a few longshots on the card at Santa Anita on Friday including the feature, a six-furlong allowance/optional claimer for Cal-breds. The winner was Rick’s Dream, who went for a contested lead and eventually pulled away to win by 3 ½ lengths.

Rick’s Dream paid $17.20, $7.20 and $4.40 for trainer Reed Saldana and jockey Efrain Hernandez. Tiger Strike was second and It’s Fitting finished third.

“He’s a nice little horse,” Saldana told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “He tries very hard and I used Efrain, because he works a lot of horses for me at Los Alamitos. This horse doesn’t like to switch leads, so I wanted to use Efrain because he’s familiar with him.”

It was the 5-year-old gelding’s fifth win in 19 starts.

Santa Anita preview

It’s an OK card at Santa Anita on Saturday with nine races starting at 12:30 p.m. It’s the dead time before the Breeders’ Cup where there really isn’t great racing anywhere. (Woodbine is the exception on Saturday. Just look at the paucity of $100,000 race in the Big races preview below.) Four of the races are for maidens and there are three races on the turf.

The feature is the $100,000 California Distaff Handicap for Cal-bred fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. This is a race normally held on the hillside course, but it’s closed for this meet. The favorite is S Y Sky, at 7-5, for trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. She’s seven-for-15 lifetime but this year in eight races, she’s won three and finished second five times. She won the Grade 3 Monrovia Stakes.

There are co-second-favorites at 5-2 with Don’t Sell and Just Grazed Me. Don’t Sell, for Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez, has won four-of-eight races this year. She last won the Unzip Me Stakes on Sept. 28. Just Grazed Me, for D’Amato and Geovanni Franco, is four-of-eight lifetime and is coming off a win in an allowance/optional claimer. This is only her third race this year.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 6, 10, 6, 10, 8, 6, 7, 10.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 3 Gypsy Blu (5-1)

Gypsy Blu won three in a row on the hillside course this year before it was shut down. Subsequent five-furlong races have proved too short for the horse. The last race under this current jockey saw ‘Blu fly late to run third and then easily pass the winners on the gallop out. The horse races protected Saturday in this non-graded stakes race, a criterion trainer Mark Glatt wins 22% of. A sharp work adds to the appeal. The distance looks ideal for this hillside specialist and the 5-1 or more price is a great value.

Friday’s result: Kylemore was our second scratch in three days. Perhaps our value hunting is messing with owner/trainer under the radar plans.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

1:07 Belmont (7): $100,000 Floral Park Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Goldwood (7-5)

1:30 Woodbine (7): Grade 2 $250,000 Nearctic Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Blind Ambition (5-2)

2:05 Woodbine (8): Grade 1 E.P. Taylor Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/4 miles on turf. Favorite: Red Tea (3-1)

2:13 Belmont (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Sands Point Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: New and Improved (5-2)

2:30 Keeneland (9): $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Cambier Park (8-5)

2:42 Woodbine (9): Grade 1 $800,000 Pattison Canadian International, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Ziyad (1-1)

3:45 Santa Anita (7): $100,000 California Distaff Handicap, Cal-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: S Y Sky (7-5)

6:11 Delta Downs (8): $100,000 Gold Cup Stakes, La-breds 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Just Stormin (3-1)

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 3 Shes A Famous Royal (7-2)

She lost all chance at the start of last PCQHRA Breeders Futurity trial eighth-place finish when coming away two lengths slow while getting shut off behind horses. She was fourth vs. solid debut field two outs back when facing winner who had previously finished fourth in a trial. She catches a soft field for the maiden $20,000 level while facing no foes who finished better than fourth in last outs.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.