Horse racing newsletter: Mucho Gusto mucho the best in Pegasus

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

I spent Saturday at Gulfstream Park covering the Pegasus races. It’s a place with lots of energy because it is such a compact location. It was pretty grim going for the few Southern California horses that were shipped there, until the big race, the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

The race took on a different flavor when Omaha Beach and Spun to Run scratched out of the race. It left it open for Bob Baffert’s Mucho Gusto to have his way in the 1 1/8 mile race.

Mucho Gusto paid $8.80, $5.00 and $3.80. He was followed by Mr Freeze, War Story, Diamond Oops, Bodexpress, Tenfold, Seeking the Soul, True Timber, Tax and Higher Power.

Baffert wasn’t in Hallandale Beach, instead staying back at Santa Anita. Rather than make him take a half-dozen phone calls from reporters, Alicia Hughes of the NTRA called him and put him on speaker phone. Here’s an edited version of what he said.

“You know what, the horse shipped really well and I wasn’t really planning on taking him there. But he worked really well the other day. I was going to run him in the San Pasqual next week but after he worked so well I thought, ‘You know what? I’m just going to take a shot at the mile-and-an-eighth and maybe that will get him ready.’ He didn’t have an invite to the Saudi Cup [on Feb. 29], so I thought maybe if runs well enough he’ll get an invitation.

“Who would know that the race fell apart there [with the scratches of Omaha Beach and Spun to Run], unfortunately. But he looked great in the warm up. Irad Ortiz [Jr.] did a pretty masterful job.

“He had me a little bit worried the way he was down inside like that but he knew what he was doing. When he tilted out at the quarter-pole, all I could say was ‘Damn, I wish I would have flown down there.’ But it was pretty exciting.”

As Baffert mentioned Irad Ortiz, Jr., was in the saddle. Here’s what he had to say.

“I had a great trip. He got a great start and felt good. He relaxed so well and we were able to save ground. At the three-eighths pole I tipped him out and he took off. He was much the best. I think he just took off and opened up easy.”

For more on the Pegasus Day, you can read the story I did for the web and print. Just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the third race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“It’s a maiden special weight at 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. I’m often asked about the success with first timers. For years the WCHR has been known for our debut runners, and we’re off to a flying start already with six of the seven debut winners so for (including top picks of $71, $21, and $11). Understanding training patterns and intentions is so vital, and when the combination of overbet, lackluster runners who’ve already run, combine with positive intentions and the type of pattern we like to see with regard to debut runners, that’s the time to look for first timers. Also, so important, which WCHR Members have come to appreciate, is understanding the actual strength of maiden races rather than relying on the listed price. For example, one $40,000 maiden race may consist of $12,500 types, while another is closer to a $32,000 group, yet, weeks later, horseplayers are simply staring at horses exiting $40,000 races, believing they’re the same type of strength level, when the reality was, they weren’t, a huge attribute with regard to allowing us to find first timers. With regard to this particular offering, we’re looking to weigh the first timer for Bob Baffert on the rail, against the Ron Ellis runner on the outside. In the end, top selection is the Ellis runner GOLDEN STAR LADY (#7). In both starts back in May and June, she took money, going off at 3-2 and 3-5, and though her last effort wasn’t much, the layoff that followed allows us to simply draw a line through the lackluster effort. So, the question becomes, is she ready here on Sunday? We need to really consider two things, the fact she comes from the ultra-conservative Ellis barn, meaning, he brings ‘em back ready, and only going 5 ½ furlongs, you can bet that’s not an issue, while the presence of Joel Rosario doesn’t scream ‘Hey, were giving her the race back Joel.’ The short seven hole is gonna be super useful, allowing for a relaxed and easy breathing rhythm outside of horses, and a strong try is likely. REGAL BEAUTY (#1) is working well for Baffert, Drayden Van Dyke up, and though Malibu Moon runners typically move forward with a bit more than 5 ½, this isn’t a deep group outside of the top choice, and a win certainly wouldn’t be surprising.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 7-1

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 5

“Negative Notes:

“5 I’m the Hero - Will need weaker than these.

“First Timers:

“2 Coco Cookies - D’Amato filly working well, but his “regimen” is designed for a bit more distance, and we’ll make her beat us here today, giving a stronger look next time out.

“TOP PICK: GOLDEN STAR LADY (#7 3-1 Rosario)

“SECOND CHOICE: REGAL BEAUTY (#1 5-2 Van Dyke)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Saturday’s feature, the Grade 2 $200,000 Palos Verdes Stakes for horses going six furlongs didn’t bring a lot of saddle-to-saddle racing with only four horses. There were two scratches. Captain Scotty went to the front and held off the favored Flagstaff to win by a neck.

Captain Scotty paid $9.80 and $3.00.There was no show betting. Flagstaff was second followed by Speed Pass and Grinning Tiger.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Abel Cedillo (winning jockey): “[Trainer] Pete [Miller] told me to try to go to the lead. When I saw the race was a two horse, two speed type of race I tried to slow it down. He was trying to run off, but I got him to relax pretty good, he finished pretty good. [Captain Scotty] was fighting with Victor [Espinoza’s] horse (Flagstaff), he was tough. I said we have to beat that horse.”

Ruben Alvarado (assistant to winning trainer Peter Miller, who was at Pegasus): “We brought him back from Kentucky (after running a third in a six-furlong allowance on Nov. 28) and sent him to San Luis Rey Downs. He came back in good shape and we decided to run him on the grass (fifth in the Joe Hernandez Stakes) and the horse that won that day, (stablemate) Texas Wedge, came back to win [Saturday] at Gulfstream, so he got beat by a good horse. He handled the grass OK, but not like the dirt, so we tried the main track today and we got lucky.”

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita has eight races on Sunday starting at 12:30 p.m. Three are on the turf and there is a minor stakes race. It’s actually kind of a crazy Sunday nationally as all but one of the $100,000 and up stakes are at Sam Houston and Sunland.

The feature is seventh race, the $70,000 Clockers’ Corner Stakes for older horses going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. You can pretty much count on any 5 ½ turf race to be one that used to be run down the hill at 6 ½ furlongs. That course is now closed to sprints.

Double Touch is the favorite at 3-1 for trainer John Sadler and jockey Victor Espinoza. He is four-for-21 lifetime and finished second last out in the Joe Hernandez Stakes. Ghoul is the second favorite at 7-2 for Peter Miller and Joel Rosario. He is six-of-14 lifetime and won an allowance last out. Post time is about 3:25 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 9, 5, 7, 7, 8, 7, 7, 8.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 1 Oiseau Guerre (12-1)

Oiseau de Guerre was claimed last out for $62,000 by trainer Doug O’Neill with his own cash. No works since that Jan. 10th race and he jumps the horse up in class and races him protected. O’Neill is 24% first-off the claim. That last race saw Joel Rosario take the mount in what was an obvious money run and Oiseau was bet down. Unfortunately, the horse threw the head at the start, pulled and tracked last throughout the race. On the gallop out he looked loaded and passed everyone five wide. With a cleaner start with that early speed what could have happened last out? That race was 6 ½ furlongs on the dirt. He moves to turf Sunday and cuts back. Oiseau won three in a row on all-weather at six furlongs in the fall. He also has a win and five seconds on the downhill course always surging late to finish. What will the tactic be here today? I’m not sure but the 12-1 or more morning line is too good a value to ignore. O’Neill saw enough to claim for himself. Raphael Bejarano rides today hoping to get his first win of the meet. The inside post is also 0-19. Let’s break those streaks at a price.

Saturday’s result: Heywoods Beach was scratched.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Gulfstream (3): $150,000 World of Trouble Turf Sprint, 4 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Winner: Texas Wedge ($11.80)

Gulfstream (5): $150,000 Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Winner: Jean Elizabeth ($7.60)

Gulfstream (6): $150,000 South Beach Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Atomic Blonde ($13.00)

Gulfstream (7): Grade 3 $150,000 Fred Hooper Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Phat Man ($15.40)

Gulfstream (8): Grade 3 $200,000 La Prevoyante Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Mean Mary ($7.40)

Gulfstream (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Inside Information Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Pink Sands ($12.60)

Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Jazil Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Mr. Buff ($3.50)

Oaklawn (5): $100,000 Fifth Season Stakes (1^st division) , 4 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Guest Suite ($24.40)

Gulfstream (10): Grade 3 $200,000 W.L. McKnight Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Spooky Channel ($74.60)

Gulfstream (11): Grade 1 $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, 4 and up, 1 3/16 miles on turf. Winner: Zulu Alpha ($25.60)

Oaklawn (7): $100,000 Pippin Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Whoa Nellie ($6.60)

Gulfstream (12): Grade 1 $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Mucho Gusto ($8.80)

Oaklawn (8): $100,000 Fifth Season Stakes (2nd division) , 4 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Pioneer Spirit ($7.40)

Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Palos Verdes Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Winner: Captain Scotty ($9.80)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PST:

12:53 Aqueduct (7): $100,000 Ruthless Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Love of My Heart (5-2)

1:20 Sam Houston (5): $100,000 Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint, 4 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Real News (7-2)

2:24 Sunland (8): $100,000 Johnie L. Jamison Stakes, NM-breds 4 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Blazing Navarone (9-5)

2:40 Sam Houston (7): $200,000 Texas Turf Mile, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Billy Batts (7-2)

2:50 Sunland (9): $100,000 Riley Allison Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Rowdy Yates (9-5)

3:20 Sam Houston (8): Grade 3 $300,000 Houston Ladies Classic, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Serengeti Empress (7-5)

4:00 Sam Houston (9): Grade 3 $200,000 John B. Connally Turf Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Cross Border (7-2)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 5 Sounds Good (5-2)

This very talented gelding has improved in each of his last three starts while posting numbers on my charts that are easily best in this field. In his last outing, this runner broke out and brushed the gate, finding himself a length behind the leader. Finding his stride shortly after, Sounds Good powered his way to the wire, breaking his maiden in his seventh career start. He’ll be very tough to catch in the fourth of five trials to the Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes.

Now, the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.