WHO WINS? WHAT DRAMA!

THE Emmys is the most exciting awards show to watch because it features the most jaw-dropping upsets. But that makes it the toughest to predict. Winners are determined by small groups of judges evaluating sample videos, not by all 13,000 members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences expressing industry buzz about TV shows and stars in general that can be sensed from afar. Here’s the inside track on the top races.

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Drama series

Everybody’s saying that “The Sopranos” has this in the bag. But everybody isn’t an Emmy expert. Rarely do series win after they exit the airwaves and this one left viewers hanging. “The Sopranos” has lost five times and won only once (2004).

Yes, it still may be the front-runner because it’s the Greatest TV Show Ever -- and if any series can break the curse, “Sopranos” can -- but alternatives must be considered.

“Boston Legal” doesn’t pack as much muscle as its predecessor, “The Practice,” which beat out “Sopranos” in 1999.

“Heroes” could swoop into the winner’s circle. Its sci-fi/fantasy elements usually doom a contender, but “Lost” prevailed two years ago when it was the hot new show. One factor that could hurt its chances: “Heroes” may be too young-skewing.

Of the two nominated medical shows, “House” may be too focused on just one person, who’s too grumpy at that.

“Grey’s Anatomy” may have just the right prescription to win. It’s classy. It feels important. It’s overdue. Could be an irresistible combo to voters.

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Lead actor in a drama series

Last year Kiefer Sutherland pulled off a jaw-dropping upset that’s unlikely to be repeated. Voters wanted to reward an overdue star after a stellar season, but now that bill’s paid and “24” is back to being merely good.

TV thug James Gandolfini is most likely to snatch the gold. The three-time champ hasn’t won since 2003, but could rally, thanks to the bravura sample episode he gave to judges. In “The Second Coming,” we see him flex his muscles as an actor: one minute knocking out the teeth of a bully who insulted his daughter, then showing us the tender heart of a papa who comforts his sobbing son after a suicide attempt.

But Gandolfini could be bumped off by TV’s sneakiest doctor. “House” star Hugh Laurie won the Screen Actors Guild award once and Golden Globe twice, but he’s still Emmyless. Now he can finally prevail after impressing judges in his episode “Half-Wit” with, egad, humility and a surprising ability to play the piano.

An upset is possible from Denis Leary. The “Rescue Me” firefighter really burns up the screen as an alcoholic falling off the wagon in “Retards,” raging, “I’m more bad boy than you’ll ever be able to handle!” Voters in rehab-chic Hollywood are addicted to boozy story lines, which have fueled past Emmy wins by Dennis Franz, Candice Bergen and Kirstie Alley.

Devilish “Boston Legal” lawyer James Spader pulled off two surprising Emmy verdicts in the past, often thanks to flashy jury speeches. But this year he may need to wipe that smirk off his face. He gets three minutes to grandstand in his episode, “Angel of Death,” but not much additional airtime.

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Lead actress in a drama series

This crowded race is a tossup -- with six women instead of the usual five, all giving impressive diva turns. That means one could triumph with merely 17% of the vote.

Like Oscar voters, Emmy judges really, really like Sally Field. She’s won two of each award, but she may have trouble nabbing a third Golden Girl because of limited face time in the “Brothers & Sisters” episode she gave to judges (“Mistakes Were Made, Part 2”). Bravely, she bears a mother’s broken heart and private terror as her soldier son marches off to Iraq, but she’s often upstaged and outranked by Calista Flockhart.

Edie Falco is on screen for only 13 minutes during her “Sopranos” episode, “The Second Coming,” at one point bravely bidding adieu to her son, who enters a mental institution. But it’s her fierce face-off against tough Mafia hubby Tony in the kitchen one morning over breakfast that could nab her a fourth career victory. Allison Janney claimed this category in 2002 with a just-as-impressive and equally brief turn on “The West Wing.”

Patricia Arquette staged an upset the other time she was nominated, but her episode of “Medium” (“Be Kind, Rewind”) doesn’t have the same emotional depth and ache of her 2005 winner.

After Emmy losses in 2004 and 2005 for “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,” Mariska Hargitay’s victory last year was a surprise. She could win again, thanks to the tender, tortured performance she gives while trying to determine if her newfound brother is a rapist.

Golden Globe champ Kyra Sedgwick is overdue and could finally take the gold as a reward for battling L.A.’s tough street gangs in “The Closer.”

But nobody is tougher or more fearless than Minnie Driver as a meth-addicted con artist whose family secretly assumes the identity of highfalutin folks in “The Riches.” Sometimes snobbish Emmy voters punish nominees for being trashy, but maybe this time they’ll herald one.

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Supporting actor in a drama series

With “West Wing” off the air -- it featured four of the past seven winners, including last year’s champ, Alan Alda -- this is a wide-open race.

Of the six contenders, 2004 winner Michael Imperioli (“The Sopranos”) and Terry O’Quinn (“Lost”) may be in front, thanks to especially strong performances in their submitted episodes. In Imperioli’s, he falls off the wagon, gets drunk and really lets loose -- reminding voters that he’s the kind of thug who’ll whack a pal in the head if he’s in a lousy mood.

O’Quinn could score an upset for his vulnerable portrayal of a man crippled emotionally and physically by an abusive dad.

He also gets ample face time on the episode submitted by costar Michael Emerson, who may be penalized for portraying a role that’s a familiar turn-off to Hollywood insiders: a conniving, manipulative control freak. But Emerson did win a guest actor Emmy in 2001 as a serial killer on “The Practice.”

If Emmy judges vote on buzz instead of episode entries, that helps T.R. Knight (“Grey’s Anatomy”) and Masi Oka (“Heroes”). Both submitted strong samples, but they have additional cachet: Knight’s courageous coming-out during his clash with costar Isaiah Washington and Oka’s rep as the coolest star of TV’s hottest new drama.

TV veteran William Shatner has always been cool and he’s already won two Emmys as Denny Crane. Now voters can see two versions of Shatner as his episode of “Boston Legal” incorporates actual 1957 footage of him starring in “Studio One.”

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Supporting actress in a drama series

After two previous losses, third time may be the charm for “Grey’s Anatomy’s” Sandra Oh, who has the most screen time of the nominees and flashes an impressive range of emotions -- rage to despair -- while scheming to protect her surgeon lover’s shaky hands.

Golden Globe champ Oh squares off against costar Chandra Wilson, who won the SAG award in January and now woos Emmy judges with glimpses of the soft side of her butt-kicking character as she comforts a woman with cancer. Also nominated is “Grey’s” Katherine Heigl, whose character finally comes to terms with a secret from her past.

Wisely dropping down to supporting after losing three times in the lead category, Lorraine Bracco could finally triumph for having the guts to give Tony Soprano the boot when she realizes she can’t cure an unconscionable Mafioso with therapy.

Costar Aida Turturro gave judges the season opener, “Soprano Home Movies,” which showcases her buffoonish Janice deliriously blabbing family secrets during a weekend getaway, but she may get as little respect from voters as she does from her brother Tony.

“Brothers & Sisters” star Rachel Griffiths lost two Emmy bids for “Six Feet Under” and probably will suffer the same fate again as her low-key character merely reacts with a shrug to, as her episode is called, “Bad News” about her husband and late father’s infidelities.