Garcetti leading Greuel in new USC Price/L.A. Times poll

A new USC Price/Los Angeles Times poll shows Eric Garcetti‘s lead in the Los Angeles mayor’s race has narrowed to 7 percentage points, but his strength among conservatives has blocked rival Wendy Greuel from securing a San Fernando Valley base that is vital to her chances.

As the candidates and their partisans swarm across the city in advance of Tuesday’s runoff election, Garcetti, a city councilman from Silver Lake, held a 48%-to-41% lead, the survey found. Voters in the Valley and every other key region of Los Angeles favored him over Greuel, the city controller.

With the campaign’s TV advertising hitting its peak over the weekend, the dynamics of the race could still shift. The poll found that 11% of likely voters said they were undecided. And more than 20% of those who were siding with a candidate said they might still change their minds.

Over the last month, the poll found, Greuel has made small gains among women, Latinos, Democrats and Westside voters, offering opportunities for her to build momentum by election day -- but majorities in all of those groups still preferred Garcetti.

Although the results were tighter than last month, when another poll by the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy and The Times showed Garcetti 10 percentage points ahead, the structure of the race has remained largely stable.

Garcetti holds a central city and Eastside base that is stronger than the one Greuel is struggling to establish in the Valley. One month ago, Greuel held a narrow lead in the Valley, turf that she represented on the City Council for seven years. The new poll found Garcetti with a narrow lead there. (Both advantages were within the poll’s margin of error.)

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