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Will BCS be a play-it-again sham?

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Times Staff Writer

The idea that No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan could play in the best game of the year Saturday in Columbus, and then possibly play in the best game of next year Jan. 8 for National Title II, has left people in a state commonly associated with the Bowl Championship Series:

Confused.

“I don’t think of it as a possibility at all,” former Michigan coach Bo Schembechler said this week. “They are not going to do that. Of course it’s not fair. Once you beat a team, it’s over.... I would not be in favor of that under any circumstances.”

How many sequels have ever been better than the original -- maybe “Godfather II”?

Even the so-called experts are torn.

One BCS analyst says there’s a good chance the loser of Saturday’s game will end up at No. 2 in the BCS standings, mandating a rematch in the BCS title game.

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Another analyst said it’s not likely.

The rematch scenario involves the Ohio State-Michigan game being close enough that the loser doesn’t fall far enough in the polls, or in the BCS computers, to drop below No. 2 in the BCS standings.

The standings, which determine the title-game participants, are a three-pronged formula involving two human polls and a computer component.

The Ohio State-Michigan loser would be 11-1 and left to be considered along with other possible one-loss contenders -- USC, Florida, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and a possible 12-0 Rutgers.

Jerry Palm, an independent BCS analyst, thinks Harris poll voters and the USA Today voting coaches would not want a rematch and would drop the Ohio State-Michigan loser far enough to ensure that outcome.

“I think voters would be inclined to give someone else a chance,” Palm said.

Palm said it would take a specific set of circumstances to produce a rematch.

He believes USC will warrant the No. 2 BCS spot if the Trojans finish 11-1 after closing wins against California, Notre Dame and UCLA.

“USC will be the highest one-loss team in the computers,” Palm said.

Florida or Arkansas could also end up a one-loss team as champion of the Southeastern Conference and be deemed more worthy than one-loss Ohio State or Michigan.

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Notre Dame, at 11-1, might even have the momentum to overtake an 11-1 Michigan, even though the Wolverines thrashed the Irish in South Bend, 47-21, Sept. 16.

But what if USC, Notre Dame, Florida and Arkansas all end up with two losses?

Then, Palm says, voters might choose the Ohio State-Michigan loser, even over a 12-0 Rutgers team.

Sam Chi, who runs the website BCS Guru, is more optimistic there could be an Ohio State-Michigan rematch in the BCS title game.

“Once again, the BCS world hinges on USC,” Chi said.

USC, at 11-1, will be No. 2 in both polls and probably jump from its current computer ranking of No. 4 to No. 2, Chi said, if it defeats Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA.

“But if USC loses,” Chi said, “then the rematch probability would be better than 50-50. Neither Florida nor Arkansas is a sure bet to get the No. 2 spot, and most voters probably will be reluctant to put Rutgers ahead of the Michigan-Ohio State loser.”

Having a team advance to the title game after losing its last regular-season game would not be unprecedented. It has happened three times in the last decade.

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In 1996, two years before the BCS was established, No. 2 Florida State defeated No. 1 Florida in Tallahassee on Nov. 30. Then, because of a series of late-season losses and the fact that No. 2 Arizona State was then contracted to play in the Rose Bowl, Florida State and Florida met again in the Sugar Bowl. Florida won the rematch and claimed the national title when Ohio State beat Arizona State in Pasadena.

In 2001, No. 14 Colorado stunned No. 2 Nebraska in Boulder, 62-36, on the day after Thanksgiving, but Nebraska still ended up No. 2 in the BCS standings and played Miami -- and lost -- for the national title.

In 2003, No. 1 and unbeaten Oklahoma lost in the Big 12 title game to Kansas State but remained No. 1 in the BCS standings even though USC ended up No. 1 both polls.

How did that happen?

Oklahoma had the No. 1 computer rating and fell to only No. 3 in the polls behind USC and Louisiana State because all other contending schools had at least two losses.

Oklahoma made it to the title game without winning its conference, while Nebraska, two years earlier, advanced to the title game without winning its own division of the Big 12.

Ohio State Coach Jim Tressel said this week he philosophically agreed with the idea of having to win your conference to play for the title, but his school might benefit from the decision not to change the rule.

Michigan Coach Lloyd Carr said Tuesday, “We do have a system. That system will take care of the question.”

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So there you have it.

Ohio State-Michigan looms as a possible rematch made in heaven. Or, in the minds of others, somewhere lower.

chris.dufresne@latimes.com

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