AMERICAN LEAGUE PREVIEW : Return of Blue Jays Will Spoil Indian Summer

The baseball trendies have spoken. After full examination of the latest line of American League fashions, they want you to know that the Boston Red Sox are out, and the Cleveland Indians are in.

You got it. To be truly chic, you go with the Indians. Why? Hey, if you gotta ask . . . Liking the Indians is kind of similar to liking the Beastie Boys. They’re new, they’re noisy, they’re brash, they’re different. Some people hate them, too, but you’re hip and you know better. Fight for your right.

Besides, in the last six years, six different teams have won the American League East title--the New York Yankees in 1981, the Milwaukee Brewers in ‘82, the Baltimore Orioles in ‘83, the Detroit Tigers in ‘84, the Toronto Blue Jays in ’85 and the Red Sox in ’86. Now, naturally, it’s the Indians’ turn. Symmetry counts.

The Indians also get the underdog vote. They are 0 for 32 in pennants since winning the American League in 1954. Only the Chicago Cubs have gone as long without reaching the World Series--and even they made the playoffs in ’84. Cleveland hasn’t placed as high as second since 1959. So, the Indians are due.

They are also fairly impressive when they swing the bat. Joe Carter hit .302 with 29 home runs and 121 RBIs last season. If he played in New York, they’d name pills after him. Rookie Cory Snyder had 24 home runs and 69 RBIs in just 103 games. If he played in Anaheim, they’d name a world after him. Regulars Pat Tabler, Tony Bernazard and Julio Franco all hit over .300. Brook Jacoby drove in 80 runs and Brett Butler, in an off year, stole 32 bases. As a team, the Indians hit a major league leading .284.

That type of offense excites people. No less a sage than Tiger Manager Sparky Anderson has tabbed the Indians. Sports Illustrated put them on its cover. The bandwagon is getting crowded.

But before you, too, climb aboard, a word or two about these Eastie Boys.

The core of this team lost 102 games as recently as 1985. The defense, worst in the league last season, committed 157 errors. The catchers are Oriole castoff Rick Dempsey and Chris Bando. And the pitchers--you don’t want to know.

One, Phil Niekro, is pushing grandfatherhood. Ken Schrom and Tom Candiotti were cut loose by the Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers, teams not exactly drowning in pitching. Greg Swindell, the supposed ace, is 22 and has pitched nine big league games. The bullpen is manned by Ernie Camacho, who was 2-4 with a 4.08 earned-run average in ‘86, and Ed Vande Berg. Ask any Dodger fan about Vande Berg. The Indians are so desperate for pitching that they signed Steve Carlton as a middle reliever.

Think about this a little bit and Cleveland starts to sound more like a third-place city. Pitching and defense may be boring, but they win pennants.

That’s why the pick here is Toronto in the East and the Angels in the West.

The Blue Jays have the only decent starting five in their division, a top-flight bullpen in Mark Eichhorn and Tom Henke, a great shortstop in Tony Fernandez, a great outfield in Jesse Barfield, George Bell and Lloyd Moseby, and good players everywhere else.

The Angels have the best 1-2 pitching combo in the league in Mike Witt and Kirk McCaskill, plus veterans John Candelaria and Don Sutton, plus an apparently uninjured Donnie Moore in the bullpen.

They injected the West’s best defense with youth and speed--adding Devon White in right and Mark McLemore at second, the latest rookies off the assembly line that produced Wally Joyner. And although Bob Boone won’t rejoin the Angels at least until May 1, they still have the best catching in the division.

A team-by-team outlook for the American League, with the predicted finish, appears on Page 12.

AMERICAN LEAGUE PREVIEW TEAM-BY-TEAM OUTLOOK, WITH PREDICTED FINISHES. EAST DIVISION

1. Toronto Blue Jays--”Tomorrow I’ll Be Perfect” is the title of Dave Stieb’s autobiography. Suggestion for the sequel: “This Year I’ll Break Even.”

If Stieb does at least that, the Blue Jays will be a lot happier and healthier in the standings.

After winning the East title in ‘85, Toronto slumped to 86-76 and fourth in ’86. Attribute the slippage to pitching. Stieb, bothered by bone chips in his arm, went from 14-13 and 2.48 to 7-12 and 4.74, and the staff dropped from 3.31 to 4.08. The bone chips remain in Stieb’s elbow but he is pitching well despite them.

The rest of the rotation looks stronger. After an 0-3 start, Jimmy Key was 14-8 last summer. Joe Johnson, a midseason addition from the Atlanta Braves, combined for a 13-9 record in both leagues. Jim Clancy won 14 games and John Cerutti was 9-4 after his recall from Syracuse. And if the starters can get Toronto to the sixth and seventh innings, there’s the bullpen of Mark Eichhorn (14-6, 10 saves) and Tom Henke (9-5, 27 saves).

Besides their established talent, the Blue Jays also have some of the game’s best prospects. Kelly Gruber, who hit 21 home runs twice at the Triple-A level, is the new third baseman. Mike Sharperson, who prompted the trade of Damaso Garcia to Atlanta, batted .400 this spring and will take over at second.

2. New York Yankees--To commemorate the 60th anniversary of the greatest team of them all, the ’27 Yankees, George Steinbrenner has assembled a new set of Bronx Bombers.

How would you like to pitch to this first seven--Rickey Henderson, Willie Randolph, Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield, Dan Pasqua, Gary Ward and Mike Pagliarulo? In 1986, they averaged 20 home runs and 74 RBIs a man.

But it is a team founded on hit and hope. The 8-7 game is alive and living in Yankee Stadium. With Rick Rhoden temporarily sidelined because of discomfort in his rib cage, New York’s opening day pitcher will be Dennis Rasmussen, who at 18-6 was the only Yankee to reach double figures in wins last season. Then, on Day 2, it’s Tommy John. That’s right, soon-to-be-44 Tommy John--two years after being deemed to old for even the Angels. After that, it’s Bob Tewksbury and 42-year-old Joe Niekro.

How would you like to manage this team?

Lou Piniella will get the first crack. He’s already lasted one season, so he’s either got Steinbrenner convinced, fooled or blackmailed. But if the hitters begin to bow under the weight of the pitching, Piniella could find himself managing on borrowed time.

3. Cleveland Indians--There they are, on the cover of Sports Illustrated, being proclaimed as “the best team in the American League.”

It might help if they first earned it. The Indians haven’t won a thing since 1954, a pennant drought longer than even Gene Mauch’s. Two years ago, Cleveland was in last place and last year finished fifth.

Sure, the Indians could be fun. They have hitters all over the place--1B Joe Carter, .302, 121 RBIs in ‘86, 2B Tony Bernazard,.301, 3B Brook Jacoby, .288, 80 RBIs, SS Julio Franco, .306, LF Mel Hall, .296, CF Brett Butler, .278, 32 steals, RF Cory Snyder, 24 HRs and 69 RBIs in 103 games. But one question: Can they do it again? And another: Can they do it often enough to overcome the worst pitching on any serious contender?

Name another team willing to take a chance on Steve Carlton. Lefty has so little left that the Giants, White Sox and Phillies (twice) all cut him loose within the past year, but the Indians snatched him up and will make him a middle reliever.

Cleveland is hoping Greg Swindell becomes the Roger Clemens of 1987. They have two things in common--a heat-seeking fastball and a University of Texas background. Swindell was 5-2 with a 4.23 ERA as a rookie last summer. Asking him to make the jump to Cy Young Award status is mission improbable.

Just about as improbable as asking Cleveland to make the jump to the World Series.

4. Boston Red Sox--Roger Clemens ended his holdout Saturday, so historians can relax. The Red Sox no longer run the very real risk of becoming the first AL team since the 1915 Philadelphia A’s to go from the World Series one year to last place the next. And Rich Gedman is due back around May 1, so Boston will only have to drag around Marc Sullivan as its catcher for a month.

But rest assured, the 1986 crown rests uneasy on the heads of the 1987 Red Sox. No. 2 starter Bruce Hurst has a sore elbow and Dennis (Oil Can) Boyd will miss at least one start with a sore arm. Worse that that, the Red Sox are relying on bullpen refugee Bob Stanley as their opening day starter. And the fifth starter, Al Nipper, spent much of the spring with an 11.00 ERA, prompting him to remark: “When I’m pitching, the other manager has to put a headlock on his hitters.”

Other than failing to re-sign Gedman and cutting loose Tom Seaver, Dave Stapleton, Tony Armas and Sammy Stewart, Boston made no off-season changes. That’s dangerous business in a division as mercurial as the AL East. The Red Sox still have no speed, have no bullpen behind Calvin Schiraldi and now have a bench thinner than balsa wood.

5. Detroit Tigers--Lance Parrish is gone and Kirk Gibson is ailing, so Manager Sparky Anderson will open the season with shortstop Alan Trammell as his cleanup hitter. And Anderson predicts that Trammell will be the best cleanup hitter in the American League by the end of the season.

Oh, that Sparky! And what was that about Chris Pittaro, the game’s next great infielder?

None of Sparky’s, er, verbal fertilizer will be able to fill the gaping chasm left by Parrish’s departure, though. Parrish, who averaged 30 home runs and 99 RBIs from 1982 to 1985 before a back injury sidelined him for the final two months of ‘86, is the best all-around catcher in the sport.

Last year, each Tiger infielder hit 20 or more home runs and Detroit led the majors in home runs with 198. The club still finished third. This year, the Tigers say they’ll have to pick up the slack. Uh-huh. With new catchers Mike Heath and Dwight Lowry? With the new designated hitters, Terry Harper and John Grubb?

If the Tigers are to overcome Parrish’s loss, they’ll have to do it with pitching. And they nearly let 20-game winner Jack Morris slip away during the winter. Anderson is counting heavily on Dan Petry returning from arm surgery, on Walt Terrell remaining a 15-game winner, on Frank Tanana holding back the clock one more year and on someone emerging as a fifth starter.

While he’s at it, Sparky might as well count on another 35-5 start.

6. Baltimore Orioles--On Aug. 5 of last season, the Orioles were within 2 1/2 games of the first-place Red Sox. Then, they suddenly got old. They went 14-42 the rest of the way, plunging all the way to seventh, the first last-place finish in their history in Baltimore.

Over the off-season, the Orioles went out and got older. They signed Rick Burleson, who’s 35, to play second base, and Ray Knight, 34, to play third. They also traded for catcher Terry Kennedy, who’s 30 but plays as if he’s 35. His output has slumped steadily, from .297 with 21 homers and 97 RBIs in 1982 to .264, 12 and 57 last season.

Cal Ripken, who hit .282, and Eddie Murray, who had only 17 homers, are coming off sub-par seasons, but they have the ability to recover. New Manager Cal Ripken Sr. has no idea if he can say the same about his pitchers, whose cumulative ERA has been above 4.30 the past two years. Of the prospective starters, Mike Flanagan’s 1986 ERA of 4.24 was the lowest.

It would also help if Fred Lynn could stay in the lineup. In games he played during ‘86, Lynn batted .287 and the Orioles went 54-50. In games he missed, Baltimore was 19-39.

7. Milwaukee Brewers--In 1982, the Brewers had baseball’s best shortstop in Robin Yount, a .313-hitting first baseman in Cecil Cooper and a 97-RBI man in catcher Ted Simmons. The Brewers have replaced them with Dale Sveum, Greg Brock and B.J. Surhoff.

Sveum pretty much sums up the way things are going in Beertown. He is a starter by way of a finger injury suffered by No. 1 shortstop Ernest Riles and a dislocated shoulder by No. 2 Edgar Diaz. Sveum’s scouting report: no hit, no field. He batted .246 last year and his .865 fielding percentage at third base was the lowest since 1902.

Brock, yearning to escape the spotlight that so burned him in Los Angeles, at least went to the right place. In Milwaukee, his .234 batting average won’t draw any attention. It blends right in.

All of this makes Ted Higuera the most remarkable pitcher of our time. He went 20-11 with a team that batted only .255 as a group and finished 12th in runs scored. Higuera is 35-19 overall after two years of this type of support.

If he wins 20 again and Juan Nieves chips in with 15 and Rob Deer hits another 30 home runs, maybe Milwaukee can stay out of the cellar. But most likely, it’ll be another year of sink and Sveum.

WEST DIVISION

1. Angels--Yes, there is life after Dave Henderson. The Angels successfully completed spring training without so much as one visit from an exorcist or the guys in white or a watch-swinging psychiatrist.

New blood, the Angels figure, is the best way to wash out the ugly memories. So, they’ll open 1987 with four new starters--five if you count left fielder-turned designated hitter Brian Downing.

The best could be rookie right fielder Devon White, who batted .400 in the spring and led the Angels in every major offensive category.

Another rookie, Mark McLemore, takes over at second and gives the Angels the best double-play combination in the division. New left fielder Jack Howell and catcher Butch Wynegar both batted about .290 in exhibition games.

Pitching, though, is what separates the Angels from the pack. In Mike Witt, Kirk McCaskill, John Candelaria and Don Sutton, the Angels have four potential 15-game winners.

The bullpen remains questionable, although Donnie Moore’s progress after his problem-laden 1986 has been steady.

“Gene Mauch will think of something,” Moore said. And in his past three seasons as Angel manager, Mauch thought of enough things to win 90 games each time. He figures to do so again in 1987.

2. Kansas City Royals--The basics are still there. George Brett is still on third. Frank White is still on second. Willie Wilson is still in center. The pitching staff, baseball’s best during the championship season of 1985, is still capable--the Royals again led the league in team ERA at 3.82, despite Kansas City’s dismal finish of 76-86.

And some of the missing pieces were found during the off-season. The Royals stole a 24-year-old slugging right fielder, Danny Tartabull, from the Seattle Mariners. They signed a .300 hitter, Juan Beniquez, and Bo Jackson, the most promising of all rookies, hit .300 during the spring to earn the left-field job.

So what’s stopping Kansas City from reclaiming the division title it won in 1984 and 1985?

Well, there’s still concern over the two foremost pitchers. Bret Saberhagen, who finished at 7-12 with a 4.15 ERA after winning the Cy Young Award in ‘85, is still hurting. And Dan Quisenberry, a puzzling 3-7 with only 12 saves, got shelled all spring.

Then there’s catcher. Five weeks into camp, the Royals decided that 35-year-old Jim Sundberg couldn’t cut it anymore, so they jettisoned him to the Cubs and brought in Ed Hearn from the New York Mets. That means that Kansas City is trying to contend with a catcher who began 1986 in Tidewater and appeared in just 49 games as Gary Carter’s backup.

And then there’s Steve Balboni’s back. And shortstop Angel Salazar’s bat--.245, 0 homers. And . . . enough questions to keep the Kansas City comeback on hold for a while.

3. Texas Rangers--Strangers no more, the Rangers won’t sneak up on the rest of the West as they did in 1986.

We now know that Pete Incaviglia, Oddibe McDowell and Ruben Sierra are as capable as any young outfield in the game. We know that Pete O’Brien--.290, 23 homers and 90 RBIs--is Wally Joyner without the glitter. We know that Scott Fletcher is a legitimate big league shortstop. We know that Bobby Valentine is the brightest managing talent to enter the league since Dick Howser.

Those attributes figured heavily in Texas’ 25-game turnaround last year--from 62-99 in 1985 to 87-75 in 1986. The Rangers finished just five games behind the first-place Angels. Next step: the division championship.

Not so fast.

Too many unknowns lurk about Arlington Stadium. Are youngsters Bobby Witt (11-9 last year), Ed Correa (12-14) and Jose Guzman (9-15) ready to make a pitch for the pennant? Are Mitch Williams and Greg Harris really enough in the bullpen? And who’s on second? Rookie Jerry Browne’s progress has been so slow that the Rangers are talking of moving Steve Buechele over from third and replacing him by signing free agent Bob Horner or trading for Vance Law.

4. Oakland A’s--Spring training ended just in time for the A’s. One more week and the entire starting rotation might have been wiped out.

Sixty percent of the starting staff Manager Tony LaRussa envisioned in late February never made it to April.

Vida Blue’s triumphant return to the green and gold was canceled when he failed a drug test and, subsequently, decided to retire. Moose Haas, 7-2 when he was healthy in 1986, re-injured his rotator cuff and could miss anywhere from one month to six.

Even Joaquin Andujar fell prey to arm trouble. A sore flexor muscle in his right forearm will keep him on the disabled list for opening day.

The A’s will have to choose their starting rotation among Curt Young, Dave Stewart, Jose Rijo, Eric Plunk, Chris Codiroli and newly acquired Dennis Eckersley.

Too bad, too, because had the pitching held together, the A’s would have been tough to beat in the West. Oakland has the hitting--Carney Lansford, .284 in ‘86; Alfredo Griffin, .285; Mike Davis, 19 home runs, and, of course, Jose Canseco.

The legend of Crusher Canseco continued to flower this spring. After striking out 175 times in his rookie season, Canseco struck out just five times in his first 57 at-bats. Two of his first four home runs were to the opposite field. And he hit one ground ball so hard that no fielder touched it until it skipped against the fence.

The A’s also have 40-year-old Reggie Jackson, whom they hope will provide leadership if not the lightning-rod bat of his first Oakland incarnation.

5. Minnesota Twins--Jeff Reardon has ‘em all riled up in the Twin Cities. Gee, a real relief pitcher. No more late-inning rockets launched by the notorious right arm of Mr. NASA himself, Ron Davis? No more reason to wear those “I Believe In R.D.” T-shirts to the Metrodome?

Well, yes, the Twin bullpen should be better now that General Manager Andy MacPhail took advantage of the Montreal Expos’ fire sale and imported Reardon, who had 35 saves in ’86. But MacPhail stopped there and that’s where he blew it. Jack Morris was there for the taking last December--he actually wanted to be a Twin--but Minnesota choked when negotiations got down to the bottom of the ninth.

Morris’ price was too high, the Twins said. So was Minnesota’s team ERA of 4.77, but, then, let’s not pick nits. Given a choice between making money or making the playoffs, the Twins unabashedly went for the green.

A pitching staff of Morris, Bert Blyleven, Frank Viola, Mike Smithson and Reardon might have been enough to bring home Minnesota’s first division championship since 1970. Instead, 1987 should be more of the same--tons of runs, 80 or so victories, another finish in the middle of the pack.

Kirby Puckett, Gary Gaetti, Kent Hrbek, Tom Brunansky and Roy Smalley give the Twins the best offense in the division. And Reardon will make that offense stand up more often then in the past.

But Minnesota is still two starters and two relievers short of a full load.

6. Chicago White Sox--Finally, they got rid of the world’s ugliest uniforms. Now, if they can do something about the players.

Manager Jim Fregosi might have had it better at Louisville, St. Louis’ Triple-A farm club, whence he came. Remember the Hitless Wonders? Well, these Sox are still hitless--they finished last in the league in average, home runs and RBIs last season--while lacking the wonder. Indeed, if this team is to win at all, it will do so by boring the opposition into submission.

Harold Baines remains the Ernie Banks of the ‘80s--great player, bad Chicago team--and Ozzie Guillen ranks among the league’s slickest shortstops, but after that, these are strictly the Blight Sox. Ron Karkovice is the catcher. Donnie Hill is the second baseman. Tim Hulett is the third baseman. Bobby Thigpen is the bullpen stopper. You get the idea--nondescription at every turn.

It is difficult to imagine how the ever-flamboyant Hawk, former General Manager Ken Harrelson, could leave behind such drabness as his legacy. But there they are--ready to capture sixth place, if not your imagination.

Call them the Gray Sox.

7. Seattle Mariners--Seattle is where America’s general managers shop. This isn’t a baseball team, it’s a swap meet--with Manager Dick Williams and General Manager Dick Balderson on hand to guarantee your satisfaction.

Need a hard-throwing short reliever or a power-hitting young outfielder? Got a hole in the infield you want to plug? Come on down to Dick & Dick’s. Their prices are I-N-S-A-N-E!

Detroit hadn’t had a legitimate third baseman since Aurelio Rodriguez, so Seattle provided Darnell Coles, who immediately hit 20 home runs and drove in 86 runs for the Tigers.

Boston came looking for pennant insurance--a center fielder and a shortstop, to be specific--and the Mariners coughed up Dave Henderson and Spike Owen.

Kansas City always wondered what it would do with a slugging right fielder, so Seattle gave the Royals Danny Tartabull. And then came the Dodgers . . . and away went power reliever Matt Young.

Two years ago, Seattle had what many regarded as the best young team in baseball. Now, only scraps remain--some offensive punch in Alvin Davis, Jim Presley and Phil Bradley; some pitching in Mark Langston and Mike Moore; no catching, no bullpen. And now, no ownership, with George Argyros’ pending purchase of the San Diego Padres. Some are calling it Argyros’ smartest transaction yet.

So buck up, citizens of Seattle. You may not have the worst team in baseball much longer.

EAST DIVISION

1. Toronto Blue Jays--”Tomorrow I’ll Be Perfect” is the title of Dave Stieb’s autobiography. Suggestion for the sequel: “This Year I’ll Break Even.”

If Stieb does at least that, the Blue Jays will be a lot happier and healthier in the standings.

After winning the East title in ‘85, Toronto slumped to 86-76 and fourth in ’86. Attribute the slippage to pitching. Stieb, bothered by bone chips in his arm, went from 14-13 and 2.48 to 7-12 and 4.74, and the staff dropped from 3.31 to 4.08. The bone chips remain in Stieb’s elbow but he is pitching well despite them.

The rest of the rotation looks stronger. After an 0-3 start, Jimmy Key was 14-8 last summer. Joe Johnson, a mid-season addition from Atlanta, combined for a 13-9 record in both leagues. Jim Clancy won 14 games and John Cerutti was 9-4 after his recall from Syracuse. And if the starters can get Toronto to the sixth and seventh innings, there’s the bullpen of Mark Eichhorn (14-6, 10 saves) and Tom Henke (9-5, 27 saves).

Besides their established talent, the Blue Jays also have some of the game’s best prospects. Kelly Gruber, who hit 21 home runs twice at the Class AAA level, is the new third baseman. Mike Sharperson, who prompted the trade of Damaso Garcia to Atlanta, batted .400 this spring and will take over at second.

2. New York Yankees--To commemorate the 60th anniversary of the greatest team of them all, the ’27 Yanks, George Steinbrenner has assembled a new set of Bronx Bombers.

How would you like to pitch to this first seven--Rickey Henderson, Willie Randolph, Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield, Dan Pasqua, Gary Ward and Mike Pagliarulo? In 1986, they averaged 20 home runs and 74 RBIs a man.

But it is a team founded on hit and hope. The 8-7 game is alive and living in Yankee Stadium. With Rick Rhoden temporarily sidelined because of discomfort in his rib cage, New York’s opening day pitcher will be Dennis Rasmussen, who at 18-6 was the only Yankee to reach double figures in wins. Then, on Day 2, it’s Tommy John. That’s right, soon-to-be-44 Tommy John--two years after being deemed to old for even the Angels. After that, it’s Bob Tewksbury and 42-year-old Joe Niekro, giving the Yankees two starting pitchers with a combined age of 86.

How would you like to manage this team?

Lou Piniella will get the first crack. He’s already lasted one season, so he’s either got Steinbrenner convinced, fooled or blackmailed. But if the hitters begin to bow under the weight of the pitching, Piniella could find himself managing on borrowed time.

3. Cleveland Indians--There they are, on the cover of Sports Illustrated, being proclaimed as the best team in the American League.”

It might help if they first earned it. The Indians haven’t won a thing since 1954, a pennant drought even longer than even Gene Mauch. Two years ago, Cleveland was in last place and last year’s fifth-place standing was the highest since 1968.

Sure, the Indians could be fun. They have hitters all over the place--1B Joe Carter, .302, 121 RBIs in ‘86; 2B Tony Bernazard, .301; 3B Brook Jacoby, .288, 80 RBIs; SS Julio Franco, .306; LF Mel Hall, .296; CF Brett Butler, .278, 32 stolen bases; RF Cory Snyder, 24 home runs. But one question: Can they do it again? And another: Can they do it often enough to overcome the worst pitching on any serious contender?

Cleveland is hoping that Greg Swindell will become the Roger Clemens of 1987. They have two things in common--heat-seeking fastballs and University of Texas backgrounds. But Swindell was just 5-2 with a 4.23 ERA as a rookie last summer. Asking him to jump to Cy status is mission improbable.

Just about as improbable as asking Cleveland to jump to the World Series.

4. Detroit Tigers--Lance Parrish is gone and Kirk Gibson is ailing, so Manager Sparky Anderson will open the season with shortstop Alan Trammell as his cleanup hitter. And Anderson predicts that Trammell will be the best cleanup hitter in the American League by the end of the season.

Oh, that Sparky! And what was that about Chris Pittaro, the game’s next great infielder?

None of Sparky’s, er, verbal fertilizer will be able to fill the gaping chasm left by Parrish’s departure, though. Parrish, who averaged 30 home runs and 99 RBIs from 1982 to 1985 before a back injury sidelined him for the final two months of ‘86, is the best all-around catcher in the sport.

Last year, each Tiger infielder hit 20 or more home runs and Detroit led the majors in home runs with 198. The club still finished third. This year, the Tigers say they’ll have to pick up the slack. Uh-huh. With new catchers Mike Heath and Dwight Lowry? With the new designated hitters, Terry Harper and John Grubb?

If the Tigers are to overcome Parrish’s loss, they’ll have to do it with pitching. And they nearly let 20-game winner Jack Morris slip away during the winter. Anderson is counting heavily on Dan Petry returning from arm surgery, on Walt Terrell remaining a 15-game winner, on Frank Tanana holding back the clock one more year and on someone emerging as a fifth starter.

While he’s at it, Sparky might as well count on another 35-5 start.

5. Boston Red Sox--No Clemens, no Gedman, no Hurst--he’s hurt. No pennant in Boston this time around? No doubt.

All three players should be back--Clemens when he ends his holdout, Gedman after May 1 and Hurst once his elbow heals.

But for the time being, the Red Sox are left with Dennis Boyd, the capricious Oil Can, as their staff ace and are relying on bullpen refugee Bob Stanley as their fourth starter. The fifth starter, Al Nipper, spent much of the spring with an 11.00 ERA, prompting him to remark: “When I’m pitching, the other manager has to put a headlock on his hitters.”

Other than failing to re-sign Gedman and cutting loose Tom Seaver, Dave Stapleton, Tony Armas and Sammy Stewart, Boston made no off-season changes. That’s dangerous business in a division as mercurial as the East. Now, the Red Sox are left with Marc Sullivan, who hit .193 in ‘86, at catcher, an even thinner bench and no speed.

6. Baltimore Orioles--On Aug. 5 of last season, the Orioles were within 2 1/2 games of the first-place Red Sox. Then, they suddenly got old. They went 14-42 the rest of the way, plunging all the way to seventh, the first last-place finish in their history in Baltimore.

Over the off-season, the Orioles went out and got older. They signed Rick Burleson, who’s 35, to play second base, and Ray Knight, 34, to play third. They also traded for catcher Terry Kennedy, who’s 30 but plays as if he’s 35. His output has slumped steadily, from .297 with 21 homers and 97 RBIs in 1982 to .264, 12 and 57 last summer.

Cal Ripken, who hit .282, and Eddie Murray, who had only 17 homers, are coming off sub-par seasons, but they have the ability to recover. New Manager Cal Ripken Sr., has no idea if he can say the same about his pitchers, whose cumulative ERA has been above 4.30 the past two years. Of the prospective starters, Mike Flanagan’s 1986 ERA of 4.24 was the lowest.

It would also help if Fred Lynn could stay in the lineup. In games he played during ‘86, Lynn batted .287 and the Orioles went 54-50. In games he missed, Baltimore was 19-39.

7. Milwaukee Brewers--In 1982, the Brewers had baseball’s best shortstop in Robin Yount, a .313-hitting first baseman in Cecil Cooper and a 97-RBI man in catcher Ted Simmons. By 1987, the Brewers had replaced them with Dale Sveum, Greg Brock and B.J. Surhoff.

Sveum pretty much sums up the way things are going in Beertown. He is a starter by way of a finger injury suffered by No. 1 shortstop Ernest Riles and a dislocated shoulder by No. 2 Edgar Diaz. Sveum’s scouting report: no hit, no field. He batted .246 last year and his .865 fielding percentage at third base was the lowest since 1902.

Brock, yearning to escape the spotlight that so burned him in Los Angeles, at least went to the right place. In Milwaukee, his .234 batting average won’t draw any attention. In blends right in.

All of this makes Ted Higuera the most remarkable pitcher of our time. He went 20-11 with a team that batted only .255 as a group and finished 12th in runs scored. Higuera is 35-19 overall after two years of this type of support.

If he wins 20 again and Juan Nieves chips in with 15 and Rob Deer hits another 30 home runs, maybe Milwaukee can stay out of the cellar. But most likely, it’ll be another year of sink and Sveum.