AFC Looks Pretty Good, but Will It Be Super? : Preview: Bengals and Oilers, with high-tech offenses, have best chance to overcome six Super Bowl losses in a row.

In each of the past six years, the American Football Conference has resembled an express train moving smoothly through the countryside toward the end of the line, where it spectacularly derails.

AFC teams have played the NFC on even terms each season since 1984, winning their share of the annual interconference series. Then each time, their champions have gotten untracked on the last afternoon, losing six consecutive Super Bowls.

“Nobody can really explain it,” Cincinnati Bengal Coach Sam Wyche said the other day, reviewing the AFC’s record slump. “But I can’t see it going on much longer.”

Wyche’s team, in fact, could reverse the momentum. The Bengals and Houston Oilers seem to be the best in their conference, and one or the other can be expected to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XXV, Jan. 27 in Tampa.

Both are modern offensive teams. The Bengals play football the San Francisco 49er way--with a major new component, Wyche’s no-huddle approach--and the Oilers have converted to the run-and-shoot formation, which makes use of four wide receivers at all times.

But they converted only a few weeks ago. The run and shoot is a radical departure from conventional football, and the Oilers may need a season of seasoning. The Bengals don’t.

Their time-proven offense took Wyche to the Super Bowl only 18 months ago, and that day, Cincinnati quarterback Boomer Esiason led Joe Montana’s team until the last minute, when Montana, ending a 20-16 rouser, did what he usually does.

This year, Cincinnati’s problem is the potency of its own division, the AFC’s strongest.

The Bengals are looking for big trouble from all three of their Central Division rivals--the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Oilers and Cleveland Browns.

They also expect trouble from the evenly matched top four in the AFC West: the Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers.

These are the AFC’s big eight--of whom only five can make the 1990 playoffs along with an Eastern entry, the New York Jets or Buffalo Bills.

Under a revised playoff system, three wild-card teams from each conference will compete with the six division winners, starting Jan. 5-6.

Most coaches expect Denver to be one of the AFC’s six. The Broncos are a more solid group than they seemed in Super Bowl XXIV, where Montana led the 49ers to a 55-10 victory.

That was the third of four jolts that Denver Coach Dan Reeves has taken in the past four years. His recent heart attack followed three Super Bowl losses.

“Bouncing back is what life is all about,” he said last week.

He’s right about that, although this season, it will be either Cincinnati or Houston.

The AFC top 10:

1) CINCINNATI BENGALS

Quarterback: Boomer Esiason

Coach: Sam Wyche (51-47)

The Bengals and 49ers are both led by Bill Walsh-trained coaches, Wyche and George Seifert, and their modern offenses are similar. A possibly decisive difference is that the 49ers spend heavily for talent. In contrast, one of Cincinnati’s best two linemen, Max Montoya, went to the Raiders in the kind of Plan B exodus that San Francisco avoids by outbidding everyone else. Nor have the Bengals replaced injured back Ickey Woods. They can still win with Wyche’s no-huddle offense.

2) HOUSTON OILERS

Quarterback: Warren Moon

Coach: Jack Pardee (first year)

Their opponents describe this team’s talent as the best that ever lined up in the run-and-shoot formation, which Pardee previously brought to two other Houston winners: the United States Football League’s Gamblers and the Southwest Conference’s Cougars. The Oilers’ unsurpassed blocking starts with Bruce Matthews, the receiving with Drew Hill and Ernest Givins. A defensive specialist, Pardee will address the problems on that side. The question is how fast they can adjust to a strange new offense.

3) DENVER BRONCOS

Quarterback: John Elway

Coach: Dan Reeves (91-55-1)

Their Super Bowl wipeout last winter is still held against the Broncos by the same people who seem to forget that in Montana’s three-game playoff parade, the 49ers rolled over the Vikings and Rams the same way. Last year, when the Broncos’ ancient weaknesses evaporated with a new defense and runner, Bobby Humphrey, they were 6-0 over the AFC in oxygen-thin Mile High Stadium. Nobody in the NFL comes close to matching Denver’s home-field edge.

4) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Quarterback: Bubby Brister

Coach: Chuck Noll (193-140-1)

Having survived the winning ‘70s and slumping ‘80s, Noll hits the ‘90s with a good, young offense and improving defensive personnel. His Merrill Hoge-Tim Worley backfield became the NFL’s best last year, and new coordinator Joe Walton will help the offense. The two questions: Is Brister an NFL comer? Can the defense hold the edge it got last year with coordinator Rod Rust, the new coach at New England? The defensive standout is cornerback Rod Woodson.

5) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

QB: Mark Vlasic, Billy Joe Tolliver

Coach: Dan Henning (6-10)

With either youngster pitching for San Diego, the question is whether the Broncos, Chargers, Raiders or Chiefs will break out of the pack in a year when Denver has the only established quarterback. At most other positions, San Diego could be slightly ahead with runner Marion Butts, receiver Anthony Miller, linebacker Billy Ray Smith and the depth stored by former General Manager Steve Ortmayer and the incumbent, Bobby Beathard.

6) RAIDERS

Quarterback: Jay Schroeder

Coach: Art Shell (7-5)

See paragraph above for a more exact placing of the Raiders, who, in various media surveys, have been ranked from first to last in their division--and who have been mentioned by others for both the Super Bowl and the AFC cellar. They seem clearly stronger defensively and in the offensive line, and they have the fastest receivers in football. All they want from Schroeder is occasional accuracy on their favorite missile, the long, long pass to one of those receivers.

7) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Quarterback: Steve DeBerg

Coach: Marty Schottenheimer

(8-7-1)

If for once DeBerg could play like Bernie Kosar or Jim Kelly, the Chiefs would jump to the head of the class in the AFC and even worry the NFC in the Super Bowl. They’re sound enough elsewhere. They have a few receivers and a big running back, Christian Okoye, and at linebacker they line up an MVP-type in Derrick Thomas who would make any defense look good. When they have all their players, their secondary is among the finest. But it’s really all up to DeBerg.

8) CLEVELAND BROWNS

Quarterback: Bernie Kosar

Coach: Bud Carson (10-7-1)

Carson was 58 last year when they finally gave him an NFL team, and he won a division title. Then the Browns beat Buffalo in the playoffs before losing the AFC title game again in Denver. Although their quarterback ranks with the NFL’s best, the Browns may otherwise be a touch short in talent. Still, some people say they’ll win again with running backs Eric Metcalf and Kevin Mack, and with Clay Matthews and Michael Dean Perry on defense.

9) BUFFALO BILLS

Quarterback: Jim Kelly

Coach: Marv Levy (31-26)

In a slumping division, this team hasn’t taken charge as surely as its fans thought it would with its intellectual coach, belligerent quarterback, diligent general manager, Bill Polian, and its assortment of defensive stars--Bruce Smith, Shane Conlan, Cornelius Bennett and others. They say in Buffalo that Kelly’s talent has been diluted by abrasive relationships with teammates, but there’s probably nothing wrong with the Bills that more consistency wouldn’t cure.

10) NEW YORK JETS

QB: Ken O’Brien, Tony Eason

Coach: Bruce Coslet (first year)

A new general manager, Dick Steinberg, has brought in a new coach from the Bill Walsh school. And although the Jets in a rebuilding year might be over their heads in other divisions, they can make a run for it in the East if either passer is up to it. Some NFL club executives are predicting that in time, Steinberg and the AFC’s other new general managers--Beathard and Kansas City’s Carl Peterson among them--will end the NFC’s Super Bowl dominance.

THE OTHERS

WEST

After Denver, San Diego, the Raiders and Kansas City line up one through four, there is only one place left for the Seattle Seahawks. It is improbable, though, that they’ll actually finish fifth. Their coach, Chuck Knox, has a way of hanging tough against any odds, and his defense will improve when he gets in his first draft pick, flashy lineman Cortez Kennedy.

In Knox’s offensive backfield, John L. Williams has the look of a run-and-shoot triple threat--runner-receiver-blocker--which is one reason the Seahawks may be in that formation more extensively than they now expect.

Top to bottom, the AFC West has been called a strong division that would be one of the NFL’s strongest if it had more quarterbacks of proven worth. The Elway contribution can be measured in one statistic: Of the AFC’s 14 teams, the Broncos alone played in three 1980s Super Bowls.

Many scouts reason that the Chiefs and Chargers are set at most positions and, with Carl Peterson and Bobby Beathard rounding up talent, both soon may stand with the NFL’s leaders.

CENTRAL

In this division last year, in one of the NFL’s closest races of all time, Cleveland finished 9-6-1, Houston 9-7, Pittsburgh 9-7 and Cincinnati 8-8. It will come as no surprise to most in the AFC Central if the standings are the same this year--or if they’re just the reverse, with the Browns a half-game behind the others.

Few NFL teams match the quality of the Cincinnati nucleus: blocker Anthony Munoz, receiver Eddie Brown, tight end Rodney Holman, runner James Brooks, passer Boomer Esiason, nose tackle Tim Krumrie and safety David Fulcher.

Cleveland quarterback Bernie Kosar will have a fourth offensive coordinator in four years, Jim Shofner.

The primary AFC Central question is how much Warren Moon will shake things up in Houston’s run and shoot, and the mystery team is Pittsburgh, which, to many AFC critics, seems to be on the way up again. But Pittsburgh’s Brister is the least experienced quarterback in a division with three giants, Moon, Esiason and Kosar.

EAST

Some of the NFL’s most famous winners have come out of the franchises in this division--the Jets with Joe Namath, the Dolphins with Bob Griese and Dan Marino, the Colts with John Unitas and Eric Dickerson, the Bills with O.J. Simpson, and, most recently, a New England Super Bowl team.

But to many in the AFC East, their division is in disarray--although the Bills could still come back this year, and the Jets could come up.

In Miami, Dan Marino keeps asking to be traded. Maybe he’s saying something more. At 29, he’s still the world’s best passer. The question is whether Coach Don Shula, 60, has enough help besides receiver Mark Clayton and cornerback Tim McKyer.

When the Colts drafted Jeff George last spring, they disclosed that they had the NFL’s next great quarterback--but he won’t prove it this year. With Eric Dickerson out, Coach Ron Meyer has been left with not much but a linebacker, Duane Bickett, who can’t run the ball or pass it.

The Patriots are stocked with above-average players, none of them at quarterback. Though well-coached by rookie Rod Rust, 61, they are unlikely to overtake anyone except Indianapolis.