Handicapping the NCAA’s Final 64 Teams

With 10 days to go before the invitations are sent out, and a little less than two weeks before the 1991 tournament begins, here is a look at who’s in and who’s out, and who’s somewhere in between. (Actually, the whole process might be moot unless the NCAA can figure out how much room service it takes to put Nevada-Las Vegas on probation again.)

MORE THAN ONE INVITATION

These leagues receive an automatic bid for conference champions, plus they have other strong teams who should make the NCAA field:

Atlantic Coast (five definites, one maybe): Duke (24-6), North Carolina (21-4), North Carolina State (18-8), Georgia Tech (16-9) and Virginia (20-9) are in. Wake Forest (17-9), though shaky on the road in the ACC, has enough big wins in the league to get invited.

Big East (five definites, two maybes): Syracuse (25-4), St. John’s (20-6), Pittsburgh (20-9), Seton Hall (18-8) and Connecticut (17-9) are in. Georgetown (16-10) needs to win at Syracuse or get to the conference tournament semifinals to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1978. Providence (15-11) might need to win the Big East tournament, or at least reach the final.

Big Eight (three definites, two maybes): Kansas (21-5), Oklahoma State (21-5) and Nebraska (23-6) are in. Colorado (15-11) and Oklahoma (16-12), both with 5-8 league records, need to do a little damage in the conference tournament. A lot of people would like to see Billy Tubbs get his comeuppance.

Big Ten (four definites, no maybes): Ohio State (24-1), Indiana (23-4), Michigan State (17-8) and Iowa (18-9) are all in, though the Spartans and Hawkeyes should be thankful that Illinois is on probation and Michigan is having a down season.

Big West (two definites, no maybes): Nevada-Las Vegas (26-0) and New Mexico State (21-4) are in. Why play the conference tournament? If nobody in the country can beat the Runnin’ Rebels, nobody in the Big West is going to do it, either.

Metro (one definite, two maybes): Though Louisville will miss the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1987, Southern Mississippi (20-5) is in, while Cincinnati (17-9) and South Carolina (19-10) are oh-so-close.

Pacific-10 (two definites, three maybes): It’s been an up-and-down season within the league for Arizona (23-5) and UCLA (20-7), which could enhance the chances for Washington State (16-8), Arizona State (16-8) and Southern Cal (16-8) to all get in.

Southeastern (three definites, two maybes): LSU (20-7), Mississippi State (19-7) and Alabama (17-9) are in, and Vanderbilt (16-11) and Georgia (15-11) probably are within a win of getting there.

Southwest (three definites, one maybe): Arkansas (28-2), Texas (19-7) and Houston (17-9) can pack their bags, but TCU (17-9) might need a win or two in the conference tournament.

Western Athletic (two definites, two maybes): Utah (25-2) is one of the surprise teams in the country, and the league likely will get two more bids from among Brigham Young (17-11), New Mexico (18-8) and Wyoming (17-10).

ONE INVITATION, TWO POSSIBLE

Each league’s tournament champion receives an automatic invitation, and another team may be in if the regular-season champion doesn’t win the tournament:

American South: (one definite, one maybe): New Orleans (22-6) could be strong enough to get in on its own merit, but Arkansas State (20-7) will have to win the tournament.

Atlantic 10 (one definite, one maybe): If Rutgers (19-8) wins the tournament, it’s uncertain what would happen to Temple (19-8), and vice versa. If somebody else wins it, one of those other schools might be looking at the NIT.

Big Sky: Montana (19-7) is the favorite.

Colonial Athletic (one definite, one maybe): Even Lefty Driesell says that James Madison (19-8) will have to win its conference tournament to get a bid, because since the Dukes haven’t beaten anybody prominent. If Richmond (18-9) wins - the tournament is being played at the Richmond Coliseum - the Spiders will be the only ones invited.

Metro Atlantic Athletic (one definite, two maybes): Siena (22-8), LaSalle (18-8) and St. Peter’s (21-6) each likely would have to win the postseason tournament to get a bid.

Mid-American (one definite, one maybe): Either Eastern Michigan (20-6) or Ball State (20-7), or whoever else wins the postseason tournament, gets in. This could be one of those first-time multiple invitees.

Mid-Continent (one definite, one maybe): Northern Illinois (22-4) and Wisconsin-Green Bay (20-6) had some respectable wins this season. But how do you justify inviting two teams from this league and only three from the Big Eight?

Missouri Valley (one definite, one maybe): Creighton (20-7) probably will get in regardless. A second team would have to win the conference tournament.

Southern (one definite, two maybes): East Tennessee State (25-4) has established itself, and Tennessee-Chattanooga (18-9) and Furman (20-7) still need to win the league tournament.

Sun Belt (one definite, no maybes): South Alabama (19-8) will get in, but a second team could if the Jaguars play like Pintos in the conference tournament.

West Coast (one definite, no maybes): Pepperdine (19-8) is back in the field, but the league is pretty weak.

ONE INVITATION

In these leagues with automatic bids, the regular-season champions won’t make the NCAAs unless they win the conference tournaments:

East Coast: Towson State (17-10) has everything in its favor to repeat, including the home court for this weekend’s tournament.

Ivy League: Princeton (21-2) is going again.

Midwestern Collegiate: Xavier (17-9) is looking for big schools to knock off, and Pete Gillen will have to start denying those Notre Dame coaching rumors.

Ohio Valley: Murray State (22-8).

Independents: When DePaul (17-8) joins the Great Midwest, there might not be any independents in the NCAAs until the Fighting Irish come back.

LEAGUES THAT MUST PLAY IN

The tournament champions in these leagues must play other champions to make the NCAA field:

Big South: Coastal Carolina (20-7) and Radford (21-6) are the favorites. Radford was 6-21 a year ago, and is coached by former Maryland assistant Oliver Purnell.

Mid-Eastern Athletic: Coppin State (18-9 need update ) is in the same situation as Towson State, minus the home court. The MEAC winner will play away on the Southland winner’s court.

Northeast: Either St. Francis, Pa., (21-7) or Fairleigh Dickinson (21-7).

Patriot League: Fordham (22-6) is the class of this pseudo-Ivy League. It will play the winner of the Northeast Conference.

Southland: Northeastern Louisiana (22-7).

Southwestern Athletic: Jackson State (15-12) or whoever wins the SWAC will be host to the Big South.