THE NBA / MARK HEISLER : Lotto Doesn’t Always Yield Jackpot

NBA scouts watch games, attend practices, talk to coaches, screen videotape, travel to international tournaments, work the all-star circuit, weigh prospects, measure them, work them out, interview them and dicker with their agents. They have tracked the players drafted last week since high school.

It would be presumptuous to critique their conclusions, so here goes.

True blue-chippers:

Larry Johnson, Charlotte--Everyone worried about his height, 6-feet-5 1/2, but these barrel-chested guys create all the space they need. He plays the whole game, works hard and is level-headed, too.

Dikembe Mutombo, Denver--He weighs only 228 but he’s 7-1 and athletic, a nice combination.

Taken too high:

Stacey Augmon, Atlanta--The No. 9 pick is a great athlete with a lot of heart but where’s the beef? He’s a shaky shooter and if he’s such a stopper, why didn’t Jerry Tarkanian put him on Christian Laettner in the NCAA championship game?

People did Augmon a disservice by comparing him to Dennis Rodman, a true anomaly. He’s more like his idol, Michael Cooper, a seventh-round pick who learned to shoot and handle the ball. If Augmon develops as Cooper did, he can have the same kind of career.

Mark Macon, Denver--In this draft he became a hot prospect, going No. 8, but it’s still nice if a shooting guard can shoot.

Rich King, Seattle--He’s supposed to be a Will Perdue-farther-along. Scouts say the SuperSonics were lucky to get a 7-2, 260-pounder at No. 14 but the gestation period on these projects is three years, minimum. Then he might turn out to be Uwe Blab.

Mark Randall, Chicago--Pete Chilcutt, a 6-9, 240-pounder would have been nice at No. 26 for the Bulls, who are small up front. Instead, they took the short (6-7 1/2), slow Randall. General Manager Jerry Krause had five No. 1 picks between 1988-90 without getting a starter. In ’88 with three first-rounders, he used the third for Jeff Sanders rather than Vlade Divac.

CAPABLE OF SURPRISING:

Victor Alexander, Golden State--He may be fat at 6-9 and 285 but he’s athletic. Considered a major reach at No. 17 but a diet could cut the odds.

Rodney Monroe, Atlanta--When asked what an undersized collegian’s position will be in the pros, scouts love to hiss, “He’s a basketball player!” Monroe turned out to be 6-1 and 168, minuscule for a shooting guard, and he dropped to the second round. On the other hand, he can play.

John Turner, Houston--Talk about your truth-in-packaging problem. The NBA guide had him 6-9 and 245 but at the Chicago pre-draft camp, they measured him at 6-5 1/2 and 228. He’s still a little hulk, a dream pick at No. 20 for the Rockets who want to replace Buck Johnson.

What of Don Nelson’s search for a big man?

He started getting ready for this draft a year ago, trading Terry Teagle and Manute Bol for No. 1 picks.

The Warriors had a nice season, anyway, but the draft didn’t go as well. Shaquille O’Neal didn’t leave school early. Nelson couldn’t trade up without giving up Chris Mullin or Mitch Richmond.

Nelson went to Plan B, a mass roundup. He took three big players--Alexander, Chris Gatling and Shaun Vandiver--hoping one or two turn out.

This was his wisest, not to mention only, option but some of his peers think he’s back where he started.

Said one general manager: “The reality is, if Tyrone Hill (Golden State’s disappointing No. 1 pick a year ago) was in this draft, he would have gone ahead of all three guys Nelly took.”

Lotto busts: Where have all the flowers gone?

What do Dennis Hopson, Reggie Williams, Chris Washburn, William Bedford, Tim Perry, Stacey King, George McCloud, Randy White, Tom Hammonds and Kenny Walker have in common?

They were all lottery picks since 1986.

The seven lottery picks of 1987 have been traded a total of 10 times.

Of the 16 lottery picks in 1988 and ‘89, only eight are starters.

Five of the nine lottery picks in ’89 don’t start. A sixth, Charlotte’s J.R. Reid, does but has been a huge disappointment and is up for trade.

Cradle-robbing: Why have recent drafts been so thin?

Part of it is chance but there are other factors.

The NBA almost doubled in size in 21 years, going from 14 teams to 27, creating intense competition for prospects.

With teams desperate and lottery picks guaranteed million-dollar salaries, college players leave school earlier, often to their detriment.

Three sophomores have been No. 1 picks in two years, among them Chris Jackson and Stanley Roberts. Both could have used another year or two in school, even if it was LSU.

Georgia Tech’s Kenny Anderson, highest-drafted sophomore since Isiah Thomas and Magic Johnson, is only 6-0 and 168 and could have at least used some time to grow up physically.

Ask Rex Chapman, sophomore Wunderkind of 1988, on the trading block now. It’s no cinch to develop your confidence in the NBA.