SOUTHERN SECTION PLAYOFFS : Complex Scenario Will Be Clear at Finish Line

After three months of the cross-country season, it seems the only thing for certain among Orange County teams is that nothing is certain.

Case study No. 1:

Back in September, most observers had the boys’ team at Laguna Hills pegged as one of the best in the county. Who knew it would become the best?

And who knew how Chris Lynch, the Hawks’ No. 1 runner, would bounce back from a stress fracture suffered last spring?

In September, even the most knowledgeable could only guess at the answers.

Case study No. 2:

When the season began, the top spot on the Santa Ana Valley boys’ team was no mystery. Juan Arvizo figured to be the Falcons’ No. 1 man.

So what happened? First, Lucio Brito moved into the top spot. Then, Peter Reyes came on strong to take Brito’s place at the front.

Case study No. 3:

Shelley Taylor, a senior at Edison, was expected to have her hands full with Carrie Garritson, a sophomore at Sunny Hills who is a veteran of age-group running.

It was close, but Taylor emerged as a clear winner when the two met Oct. 26 at the Orange County championships at Irvine Park. For good measure, Taylor smashed the year-old course record of 17 minutes 26 seconds by running 17:05 to Garritson’s 17:13. Third place trailed by some 40 seconds.

If the pattern continues, the Southern Section preliminaries at 8 a.m. Saturday at Mt. San Antonio College could be a wild and unpredictable affair. The finals a week later could prove to be even more interesting.

However, if there are two sure bets in Saturday’s meet, it will be that Agoura’s girls and Hart’s boys will cruise to the finals. Each team is No. 1-ranked in the country by Harrier magazine.

Agoura, competing in the I-AA division, is led by Kay Nekota, Laura Hayward and Kristie Camp. If Nekota’s name is familiar, it’s because she helped Woodbridge to a second-place finish in the II-A division last year.

Hart, competing in the I-A division, is led by junior Keith Grossman, who finished seventh and led the Indians to the team title at last year’s finals. It was Hart’s second consecutive team championship. Last week, Hart won its ninth consecutive Foothill League title.

It’s a tough call, but the county’s best hope for a team championship rests with a solid pack of runners on the Laguna Hills boys’ team. The Hawks’ one-point victory over Santa Ana Valley at the county championships seems to have brought the team new confidence.

Newbury Park, led by Jeff Wilson, appears to be the Hawks’ prime competition.

“They have a pack comparable to ours,” Laguna Hills Coach Kevin Dempsey said. “The team that runs the better race on that day is going to win.”

Sounds simple.

Lynch’s recovery from a stress fracture has been an added bonus.

“Really, it was all I could think about all summer,” Lynch said. “I was scared. I didn’t know what was going to happen. I was scared for me and the team.”

There hasn’t been much cause for concern, however, as Lynch won the county and Pacific Coast League championships.

Next step is mastering a difficult Mt. SAC course, that twice has slowed Lynch to a crawl. “I get to (the section meet) and I think I psyche myself out too much,” Lynch said.

Under Coach George Payan’s training plan, Santa Ana Valley should be ready to peak in the next two weeks. If all goes as planned, the Falcons, running in the I-AA division, could be a factor.

Section Playoffs: Boys’ Cross-Country

DEFENDING CHAMPIONS--Division I-AA: Saddleback. Division I-A: Hart. Division II-AA: Agoura. Division II-A: La Habra. Division III-AA: Palos Verdes. Division III-A: San Marino.

TOP TEAMS--Division I-AA: Channel Islands, Dana Hills, Hoover, Lakewood, Peninsula, Santa Ana, Santa Ana Valley, Saddleback. Division I-A: Buena, Canyon Country Canyon, El Toro, Esperanza, Hart, Thousand Oaks. Division II-AA: Agoura, Bishop Amat, Claremont, Glendora, Katella, Mission Viejo. Division II-A: Villa Park. Division III-AA: Laguna Hills, St. Francis, Newbury Park. Division III-A: Covina, Newport Harbor, Santa Margarita, San Marino, South Hills. Division IV-AA: Bell-Jeff, Oak Park. Division IV-A: Maranatha.

DARK HORSES: Division I-AA: Santa Ana Valley. Division I-A: Arroyo Grande. Division II-AA: Bishop Amat. Division II-A: La Habra. Division III-AA: Azusa. Division III-A: Corona del Mar.

KEY RUNNERS: Division I-AA: Lucio Brito (Santa Ana Valley), Margarito Casillas (Hoover), Fernando Mendoza (Channel Islands), Johnny Ochoa (Saddleback), Peter Reyes (Santa Ana Valley), T.J. Reyes (Lakewood). Division I-A: Shawn Frack (Esperanza), Keith Grossman (Hart), Rob Nelson (El Toro), John Walsh (Esperanza). Division II-AA: Dave Cullum (Mission Viejo), Mike Love (Katella), Jeff Lynn (Mission Viejo), Mike Moreno (Katella), Ryan Wilson (Agoura). Division IIA: Rob Fisher (Villa Park), Brendan Mahon (La Habra), James Mahon (La Habra), Robert Mahon (La Habra). Division III-AA: Dave Barnette (Laguna Hills), Chris Lynch (Laguna Hills), Jeff Wilson (Newbury Park). Division III-A: Ryan Wilkinson (Santa Margarita).

NOTEWORTHY: Hart, No. 1-ranked nationally by Harrier magazine, has won consecutive Southern Section championships and won its ninth consecutive Foothill League title last week. Hoover’s Casillas won the team sweepstakes individual championship at the Mt. San Antonio College Invitational.

Section Playoffs: Girls’ Cross-Country

DEFENDING CHAMPIONS--Division I-AA: Agoura. Division I-A: Arroyo Grande. Division II-AA: Anaheim Canyon. Division II-A: Westlake Village Westlake. Division III-AA: Foothill. Division III-A: San Marino. Division IV-AA: Nordhoff.

TOP TEAMS--Division I-AA: Agoura, Peninsula, Upland. Division I-A: Arroyo Grande, Buena, Hart, Irvine, Ocean View. Division II-AA: Bishop Amat, Claremont, Edison, Rio Mesa. Division II-A: Bishop Montgomery, El Modena, Westlake Village Westlake, Woodbridge. Division III-AA: Newbury Park. Division III-A: Corona del Mar, Foothill, Newport Harbor, San Luis Obispo, San Marino, Santa Margarita, South Hills, South Pasadena. Division IV-AA: Fillmore, Laguna Beach, La Reina, L.A. Baptist, Morro Bay, Nordhoff, Orange Lutheran, St. Anthony.

DARK HORSES--Division I-AA: Channel Islands. Division I-A: El Toro. Division II-AA: Tustin. Division II-A: Anaheim Canyon. Division III-AA: Laguna Hills. Division III-A: Costa Mesa. Division IV-AA: Fillmore.

KEY RUNNERS: Division I-AA: Kay Nekota, Laura Hayward and Kristie Camp (Agoura). Division I-A: Jessica De La Cerda (Hart), Tracy Fatone (Los Alamitos), Jennifer Gillis (Irvine), Taryn Lawson (Ocean View), Kelly Roda (Irvine), Krissy Schranz (Hart). Division II-AA: Tanja Brix (University), Carrie Garritson (Sunny Hills), Shelley Taylor (Edison). Division II-A: Laura Flatauer (Anaheim Canyon), Kristina Dahlberg (El Modena), Kim Nelson (Canyon). Division III-AA: Mayra Medina (Laguna Hills). Division III-A: Denisha Bendz (Costa Mesa), Mary Crane (Newport Harbor), Katy Eklof (Costa Mesa), Donna Mills (Newport Harbor). Division IV-AA: Amber Parkinson (Orange Lutheran).

NOTEWORTHY: Agoura, the nation’s No. 1 team, according to Harrier magazine, is a mortal lock if ever there was one. Nekota’s move from Woodbridge to Agoura only made the Chargers stronger. Hart is ranked 15th nationally. Sunny Hills’ Garritson and Edison’s Taylor should put on the best individual battle in the II-AA. Taylor defeated Garritson at the Orange County championships, 17:05 (a course record) to 17:13.