COMMENTARY : LSU Belongs at the Head of the Class

1) LSU: I know, I know. Where is Duke? Try down at No. 3. Rule No. 1 in college basketball prognostication: Nobody repeats. Here sits Shaquille O’Neal (the best player in the country, but you knew that already) and a supporting cast improved significantly over last year’s. Illinois transfer Jamie Brandon and a healthy Mike Hansen can shoot from the backcourt and Maurice Williamson (son of Super John) is back after a year’s academic ineligibility.

2) Indiana: It was two years ago that Bobby Knight sat irritatedly in front of a press conference and said, no, he wasn’t looking forward to the future. His team had too much to learn. They’ve learned, thanks in large part to last year’s 83-65 tournament pasting by Kansas. Damon Bailey returns as a mature sophomore, junior Calbert Cheaney (21.6 ppg) as one of the best wing players in the country. As always, the balance between Knight’s demands and his team’s psyche is key.

3) Duke: The Blue Devils should win a second consecutive national championship. Ditto Michigan two years ago and UNLV last year. Christian Laettner, the splendid 6-11 center, is the most efficient player in the country. Grant Hill, the 6-8 sophomore forward, will be one of the most spectacular. Point guard Bobby Hurley has at last made believers of us all. Count on another Final Four for Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s crew. But no title.

4) Michigan: Freshmen can’t win immediately? Poppycock. And Michigan’s Steve “Can he recruit like (Bill) Frieder?” Fisher has assembled the best rookie class in recent history. Better than North Carolina’s celebrated class of a year ago. The Wolverines have four of the top 20 freshmen in the country, led by 6-9 center Chris Webber, from Detroit. Watch for this team in February.

5) St. John’s: Looie last went to the Final Four in 1985. This team has a legitimate shot, what with experience, depth and the silky consistency of 6-8 senior forward Malik Sealy. Questions: Will the outside shooting hold up? Will Robert Werdann be less an enigma and more of a force all season. One certainty: If Carnesecca is to ever win a national championship, this is the team and now is the time.

6) Arkansas: November should be fun, when 6-8 All-America candidate Todd Day and three others sit out, while serving suspensions for various indiscretions. Day also sits out December. But when he returns on Jan. 2 (opponent: Quincy, at home), the Razorbacks will have most of the same players (point guard Lee Mayberry, center Oliver Miller) who went to Final Four two years ago and should challenge LSU for the SEC title.

7) Kentucky: Off probation at last. Two years seemed like 10 in the land of basketball-is-religion. Coach Rick Pitino willed a team of over-achievers to a 22-6 record a year ago, baffling SEC coaches with zone traps and shooting the three-pointer with aplomb. New York City’s Jamal Mashburn, a 6-9 sophomore, and Andre Riddick, 6-9 freshman, are the foundation of a prosperous future. Watch this team next year.

8) Ohio State: The Buckeyes won their first Big Ten title since 1971 and were everybody’s favorite team last year, until they lost to Purdue and Iowa at the end of the regular season and were undressed by St. John’s in the NCAA Tournament. Jimmy Jackson (18.9 ppg), the brawny 6-6 guard-forward was the best player on the Pan-Am team. The key question is this: How much does the addition of 6-9 Indiana transfer Lawrence Funderburke improve a team that lost two frontcourt starters?

9) Oklahoma State: Two years ago, Big Eight teams Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri volleyed about the No. 1 ranking throughout the winter. None will even win the league this year, thanks to Coach Eddie Sutton and a team built around 6-7, 235-pound center Byron Houston. Two forwards are gone from last year’s 24-8 Sweet 16 team, but three junior college transfers replace them. Sean Sutton, the coach’s son, starts at guard.

10) Seton Hall: The Hall went to the NCAA’s final eight a year ago before losing to UNLV, and this ascendance came at least a year ealier than Coach P.J. Carlesimo anticipated. Junior Terry Dehere (19.8 ppg) and sophomore Bryan Caver (backed by freshman Danny Hurley, Bobby’s little brother) give the Pirates an explosive backcourt. If 7-2 Prop 48 sophomore Luther Wright is as good as advertised, this ranking instantly jumps six or eight spots.

11) DePaul: Gone are the days when Blue Demon teams would recruit a nationally acclaimed freshman class and then crash and burn annually in the NCAA Tournament. The program has slid into relative anonymity and plays in the virgin Great Midwest Conference. However, Coach Joey Meyer has four starters back, including 6-7 senior David Booth (18.7 ppg), from a team that won 12 of its last 13 regular-season games. The new league doesn’t have an automatic NCAA bid; DePaul shouldn’t need one.

12) North Carolina: The Tar Heels’ Class of ’94 was stung by the transfer of Clifford Rozier to Lousiville, and this year’s team will suffer the absence of Rick Fox (forget his 5-for-22 flameout in the Final Four). Still, guard Hubert Davis and forward George Lynch are solid veterans. Center Eric Montross, forward Brian Reese of Tolentine in the Bronx and guard Derrick Phelps of Christ the King in Queens, sophomores all, must step up.

13) Arizona: There is a temptation to skip this team altogether, given the program’s propensity for under-achieving. But despite Brian Williams’ decision to enter the NBA draft, the Wildcats return versatile 6-6 forward Chris Mills and 6-10 center Sean Rooks. They need a big year from sophomore guard Khalid Reeves and an injection of heart from somewhere.

14) Georgetown: And to think, you thought the Hoyas were dead, out to lunch, out of your hair forever. This is Alonzo Mourning’s senior year and he didn’t come back to decrease his value in the NBA draft. If he can summon half the ferocity he showed in losing to UNLV last spring in Tucson, he can lead a team of specialists and defenders. This team still won’t score much, but it should be in every single game.

15) Pepperdine: That’s right dude, the Waves. Five starters back from a 22-9 team that won the West Coast Conference and was eliminated from the NCAA Tournament by Seton Hall. That game was played without 6-6 senior forward Doug Christie (19.1 ppg), who has since had knee surgery and recovered nicely. Waves also have 6-6 sophomore forward Dana Jones and 6-8 senior center Geoff Lear.

16) Kansas: The Jayhawks would appear to be devastated by the losses of Mark Randall, Mike Maddox and Terry Brown, all three of whom started in the national title game against Duke. But point guard Adonis Jordan is back with 6-6 senior forward Alonzo Jamison. Besides, Coach Roy Williams is, until further notice, entitled to a permanent spot in my Top 20, regardless of personnel.

17) Connecticut: Not because Jim Calhoun has been to the Sweet 16 two years running with vastly different teams and not even because senior Chris Smith (18.9 pg) could be one of the best guards in the country (if he keeps his shot selection in check). But because ... Calhoun has replenished his program with a recruiting class rated the third-best in the country by prep guru Bob Gibbons. Best of the freshmen is 6-9 forward Donyell Marshall.

18) UCLA: On talent alone, this is a top 10 team, what with 6-10 All-America Don McLean (23 ppg) and Tracy Murray up front, and with Gerald Madkins and Darrick Martin in the backcourt. But redshirt freshman Ed O’Bannon’s surgically reconstructed knee required further scoping early this month. And, Coach Jim Harrick’s team last year showed a disturbing propensity for self-destruction (like in a first-round NCAA loss to Penn State).

19) Richmond: The Spiders! At last, a little recognition before the first round of the NCAA Tournament. (Last year’s upset of Syracuse was the first time a No. 2 seed lost in the opening round since the tournament went to 64 teams.) Hey, if Dick Tarrant can coach so well mn March, he must be doing something in January, too. All five starters are back, including 6-6 junior forward Kenny Wood. Maybe they’ll beat Duke in the first round this time.

20) Utah: Would be much higher, except that forward Josh Grant (17.5 ppg) is recovering from knee surgery. Utes otherwise lost only center Walter Watts from last year’s 30-4 regional semifinalist. Rotund Coach Rick Majerus camouflages his coaching skills with fat jokes. The Utes move up quickly if Grant returns healthy in January. They drop if he redshirts, a possibility.