THE NFL / BILL PLASCHKE : And Down the Stretch They Come

It’s that most wonderful time of the year. With carols on his radio and Christmas lights outside his window, Bart Oates lies in bed visualizing. . . .

Defensive formations. Blocking patterns. Nose tackles with bad breath.

There are no visions of sugar plums dancing for the NFL’s best teams, whose players understand that this final month of the regular season is when champions are made, losers are uncovered and careers walk the balance beam.

“In this last month, everybody is tired and beat up and trying to find the light at the end of the tunnel,” said Oates, veteran center for the surprising New York Giants. “The good teams get through it by continuing to pay attention to every little detail. The other teams don’t, and they get hurt.”

December is when Troy Aikman got hot last year, throwing eight touchdown passes with one interception, setting up the Dallas Cowboys’ run to the NFL championship.

December is when Mike Ditka lost his job, his Chicago Bears suffering three pitiful defeats in four games.

And December is when Joe Montana persuaded the Kansas City Chiefs to take a chance on him. After having not played for nearly two years, he threw two touchdown passes for the San Francisco 49ers in the second half of a season-ending victory over the Detroit Lions.

The Giants, tied for the best record in the league at 9-3, are only one of the teams that can make a stand or take a fall in this last month.

There are questions about their competition--they have defeated only two teams with records of .500 or better. There are questions about aging Phil Simms--he ranks only seventh among NFL quarterbacks.

“There’s no question, we can win this thing,” Oates said. “But we can also lose it, too.”

Two teams can clinch division championships this weekend, the Chiefs and 49ers. And, yes, we know what you’re thinking.

We’ll put off thoughts of that wonderful Montana vs. Steve Young Super Bowl for a few moments and wade through the rest of this mess.

NFC EAST

* LOCKS: Giants, Cowboys.

* ON THE BUBBLE: Joe Bugel, Phoenix Cardinal coach.

* MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Aikman, whose back might not be strong enough to carry the Cowboys all the way again.

* SHOWDOWN AT SUNDOWN: Cowboys at the Giants, Jan. 2, final game of the season.

* PREDICTION: The Giants will go as far as Dan Reeves will take them. In other words, they will lose the big game, this time to Dallas for the division championship.

The Cowboys will go farther under new coach Bernie Kosar after Jimmy Johnson, in a fit of rage, accidentally waives himself.

And, oh yes, nice-guy Bugel could win the rest of his games, cure cancer, find a way to turn Biosphere II into a tennis club, and it wouldn’t matter. He’s still getting fired.

NFC CENTRAL

* LOCKS: Nobody.

* ON THE BUBBLE: Darn near everybody.

* MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Brett Favre, the Green Bay Packer kid quarterback who sometimes does the dumbest things.

* SHOWDOWN AT SUNDOWN: Packers at Detroit Lions, Jan. 2, final game of the season.

* PREDICTION: The Chicago Bears win the division title by virtue of playing the Rams in the final game. The Packers will ask the league to force the Bears to play in their socks.

With Wayne Fontes unable to make up his mind, the Lions end the season in a three-quarterback formation.

NFC WEST

* LOCK: 49ers.

* ON THE BUBBLE: New Orleans Saints.

* MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Wade Wilson, the Saint quarterback who only looks as if he’s been blindfolded.

* SHOWDOWN AT SUNDOWN: Giants at Saints, Dec. 20; Houston Oilers at 49ers, Dec. 25.

* PREDICTION: Young, the 49er quarterback, will win a second consecutive most-valuable-player award. He will not throw another interception as he leads his team to the Super Bowl.

Once there, he will be a 25-point underdog to Montana.

AFC EAST

* LOCKS: Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills.

* ON THE BUBBLE: New York Jets.

* MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Scott Mitchell, the Dolphin quarterback who must follow in the legendary footsteps of Doug Pederson and Steve DeBerg.

* SHOWDOWN AT SUNDOWN: Bills visit the Dolphins on Dec. 19.

* PREDICTION: The Dolphins whip the suddenly predictable Bills, but then are surprised in the playoffs by the Oilers, who spend the entire game making obscene gestures at Bryan Cox.

AFC CENTRAL

* LOCK: Oilers.

* ON THE BUBBLE: Pittsburgh Steelers.

* MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Barry Foster, Steeler running back who has angered some people by missing four games because of a ankle sprain that, according to tests, is not serious.

This is more proof that the NFL lives literally by the code, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

* SHOWDOWN AT SUNDOWN: Cincinnati Bengals at New England on Sunday, Houston at Pittsburgh on Dec. 19.

The loser of Sunday’s draft bowl between the Bengals and Patriots will win the chance to make Heath Shuler, Tennessee quarterback, the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft next June.

The winner will get the shot at San Diego State running back Marshall Faulk.

The Oilers, football’s hottest team, will be a real treat to watch against the 49ers. Yes, Virginia, there really is a Buddy Ryan, and he really does cuss people out on Christmas.

AFC WEST

* LOCK: Chiefs.

* ON THE BUBBLE: Denver Broncos, Raiders.

* MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER: Wade Phillips of the Broncos, who deserves to be coach of the year for pulling off the miraculous feat of making Bronco fans miss Reeves.

* SHOWDOWN AT SUNDOWN: The Chiefs at Denver on Sunday; Broncos at the Raiders on Jan. 2, final game of the season.

Who wouldn’t want to see Montana and Marcus Allen return to the Super Bowl together? Well, OK, we can think of one guy.

WE WONDER WHAT THEY TOLD MARSHALL FAULK

Don’t expect Faulk’s announcement that he is turning pro after his junior season to open the usual floodgates of early NFL applicants.

In a move that should ease tensions between the league and its farm system, the NFL recently formed a seven-man committee of scouts and general managers who will offer evaluations to undergraduates who are considering turning pro.

Juniors will mail requests to the committee, who will return one of three verdicts. The player will be projected as a first- or second-round pick, a third- through seventh-round pick, or an undrafted free agent.

Both the NFL and the colleges hope this will reduce the number of those, usually around 20, who renounce their college eligibility for the NFL and then are not drafted.

“Right now, a player coming out of college early only gets information from an agent who wants to sign him, and that information can be wildly inaccurate,” said John Robinson, USC coach who has been on both sides of the ball. “An agent will tell a guy he will be a top-20 pick, and he won’t go until the second round. Getting another point of view for the players is a positive step.”

GO FIGURE

--The Atlanta Falcons have been on the field for 9.71 hours without scoring a touchdown rushing, or not since the second quarter of their second game.

--The NFL Management Council distributed a memo this week saying that players must be signed by Dec. 15 or their salaries will count toward next year’s cap. The general managers, union and agents were all in rare agreement that this sudden rule stinks. Negotiations for such stars as Aikman and Barry Sanders could not be completed on such short notice.

Expect the rule to be rescinded at a special meeting of a union and management committee Monday in Miami.

--Double Exposure: Leon Lett’s Thanksgiving blunder for the Cowboys occurred during the highest-rated NBC regular-season telecast in eight years. His previous blunder occurred in the most-watched Super Bowl in history.