OSCARS : The List Begins With ‘Schindler’ : As nomination ballots make their way to academy voters, two things are clear: Spielberg’s epic is out in front of a <i> very </i> crowded pack

The 1993 Oscar race is shaping up as a particularly unusual affair, a competition in which the eventual winners are easier to predict than the contenders for the crown.

Here it is, only a month before the Feb. 9 nomination announcements, and the field is so crowded with possible selections that handicapping the five nominees in key categories is as difficult as it has been in years.

But picking the eventual winners, at least in the four major categories, feels suspiciously like a snap.

Part of the reason for the horde of combatants is that two films released at the end of the year specifically for academy consideration actually do have possible nominees in them. Both “In the Name of the Father” and “Shadowlands” are good bets to place selections in the final five, though actually winning anything is much more of a long shot.

On the other hand, most of the reason for the ease of predicting the final winners comes down to two words: “Schindler’s List.”

Rarely has a film possessed the kind of serious subject matter the academy loves to recognize with the best picture Oscar delivered so thoroughly on its potential. Reports indicate an enormous crush at the door before the “Schindler’s List” official academy screenings, and one voter who got in claimed “if they could have given the Oscar right then, they would have done it.”

Picking the other four best picture nominees is trickier because several of the contenders share not only the same genteel sensibility but also the same actors. Both “Shadowlands” and “The Remains of the Day” have literary antecedents, academy-type directors (Richard Attenborough and James Ivory) and stellar performances by Anthony Hopkins, and either or both could be nominated, though off the Golden Globes nominations “Remains of the Day” seems a safer bet.

Also relatively safe are “Philadelphia,” its do-goodism too good to be resisted, and the old-fashioned oomph of “In the Name of the Father.” “The Piano” should also get a nomination, but with the academy, as opposed to critics’ groups, it is something of a long shot. Similarly, “The Age of Innocence” has not aroused any noticeable degree of passion among Oscar watchers, and though it can’t be counted out, it will probably have better success in other categories.

In the best director competition, once again, despite what all those critics’ groups did or didn’t do, Steven Spielberg is not only a sure nominee but also the early favorite to break his longstanding jinx and take home the Oscar on March 21.

His fellow nominees will be a familiar group. While his film may not get a nod, “Innocence’s” Martin Scorsese should be picked by his peers, as will “In the Name of the Father’s” Jim Sheridan (previously nominated for “My Left Foot”) and “Piano’s” Jane Campion, who would be only the second woman to be so much as nominated (the first was Lina Wertmuller, for “Seven Beauties” in 1976).

Academy favorites Ivory and Attenborough probably will round out the group for “Remains” and “Shadowlands,” leaving both “Short Cuts’ ” Robert Altman and “Philadelphia’s” Jonathan Demme as the odd men out.

“Philadelphia” will gets its moment in the best actor category, where Tom Hanks, a solid Hollywood citizen doing fine work and even dying on screen in a socially conscious role, is not only sure to be nominated but also the best bet to be the winner as well.

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Best actor turns out to be one of the most crowded of categories, but nominations do seem likely to go to Daniel Day-Lewis for his fiery turn in “In the Name of the Father,” Liam Neeson for personifying “Schindler’s List” and the protean Anthony Hopkins for either “Remains of the Day” or “Shadowlands.”

The final slot is pretty much up for grabs, with hunks like Kevin Costner (“A Perfect World”), Clint Eastwood (“In the Line of Fire”) and Harrison Ford (“The Fugitive”) all having a shot. Unfortunately, three of the best male performances of the year (David Thewlis in “Naked,” Dennis Quaid in “Flesh and Bone” and Jeff Bridges in “Fearless”) were probably not seen by enough voters to make a difference.

Best actress, as always, seems the unfortunate case, a much less crowded category, which this year means less competition for Holly Hunter in “The Piano.” An outstanding piece of work in a difficult, showy role by an industryite in good standing, this performance should have no trouble either being nominated or winning the trophy.

To fill out that category, the actors branch will probably fall back on familiar faces, which means always dependable Emma Thompson, the ideal foil for Hopkins, in “The Remains of the Day”; a miscast but vital Michelle Pfeiffer for “The Age of Innocence” and a reborn Debra Winger in either “A Dangerous Woman” or “Shadowlands,” probably the latter though the former is the stronger work.

The last slot is, as with the actors, a toss-up, the key contenders being Stockard Channing in “Six Degrees of Separation,” and, if the academy can remember that far back, Angela Bassett in the neglected “What’s Love Got to Do With It” and perennial favorite Jodie Foster in “Sommersby.”

The supporting categories parallel the best actor and actress, with a great number of potential nominees to choose from among the men and much less of a selection among the women.

Top of the list for supporting actors are the summer’s most memorable dark forces, Tommy Lee Jones for “The Fugitive” and John Malkovich for “In the Line of Fire.” “Schindler’s List” will contribute at least Ralph Fiennes as the icy Nazi nemesis and possibly Ben Kingsley as Schindler’s right-hand man.

Laurence Fishburne certainly deserves no less than a nomination for “What’s Love,” but the film may not have been enough seen. Other top contenders are Sean Penn for “Carlito’s Way,” Gene Hackman for “The Firm” and, perhaps the likeliest of long shots, young-man-on-the-rise Leonardo DeCaprio for his remarkable work in “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape.”

Turning to supporting actress, four performances immediately come to mind, two of them by women who are likely best actress nominees as well. Both Emma Thompson in “In the Name of the Father” and Holly Hunter in “The Firm” are in line to pull off the neat trick of being double-nominated in the same year.

The other two supporting actress performances are, if anything, stronger. Both Rosie Perez, taking a more serious turn in “Fearless,” and Winona Rider, letter-perfect in “The Age of Innocence,” are the pick of the crop this year.

Picking a fifth nominee, however, is quite a challenge. The academy might go with one of the women from “Short Cuts,” possibly Lily Tomlin or Jennifer Jason Leigh; one of the exceptional group that energized “The Joy Luck Club,” or, if the branch is feeling adventurous, Gwyneth Paltrow’s striking work in “Flesh and Bone.”

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In the screenplay categories, there is a roadblock of sizable proportions in the adaptation category. Steven Zaillian should be nominated for “Schindler’s List” (though “Searching for Bobby Fischer” is also worthy) and the same goes for Jay Cocks and Scorsese for “The Age of Innocence,” Ruth Prawer Jhabvahla for “Remains of the Day,” William Nicholson for “Shadowlands” and possibly even John Guare for “Six Degrees of Separation” and Terry George and Jim Sheridan for “In the Name of the Father.” While they are long shots, two of the most difficult adaptations, Robert Altman and Frank Barhydt for “Short Cuts” and Amy Tan and Ron Bass for “The Joy Luck Club,” might just sneak in as well.

Once Jane Campion’s script for “The Piano” and Ron Nyswaner’s for “Philadelphia” are mentioned, the list for best original screenplay is considerably smaller. Though the academy has been known to stay away from comedies, given a solid shot for inclusion this year is the more lighthearted Nora Ephron/David Ward/Jeff Arch script for “Sleepless in Seattle.” Also possible are “Groundhog Day,” “Dave” and maybe even, as a remembrance of summer past, “In the Line of Fire.” It was that kind of a year.