THE TIMES POLL : Most Say They Will Stay Despite Quake Terror

Last week’s Northridge quake, the most powerful on record in the Los Angeles urban area, took a staggering toll on people across the county, but it failed to shake the commitment of the overwhelming majority of residents to live here, a new Times Poll has found.

Sketching the fullest detail yet of the vast human dimensions of the disaster, the poll charts the emotional and financial wreckage visited on hundreds of thousands of people’s lives.

The quake was described as one of the worst things ever experienced by one in four adults surveyed in Los Angeles County. It similarly disturbed more than half of those in the San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley areas closest to the epicenter. Taken together, that reflects emotional trauma on a massive scale in the county, home to 6.5 million adults.

More than one in six--and more than one in four in valley areas most damaged--said they have had severe psychological aftereffects of the quake, including sleeplessness and unusual nervousness and fear.

“I’m very depressed. I’m upset. I want to move,” said nurse Cheryl MacDonald, 50, whose North Hollywood apartment suffered only modest personal property losses. Unfazed by 30 years of living with Los Angeles quakes, MacDonald said the sheer violence of this temblor dismantled her sense of self-control. She will relocate to Las Vegas, she said, because “I don’t want to go through the Big One. I’m not going to be here. No way.”

One in four surveyed--and 46% in areas closer to the epicenter--say they will be worse off financially as a result of the disaster. A quarter of those surveyed expect to suffer some long-term hardship.

“It’s scary. We have been living paycheck to paycheck (before the quake),” said Erika Schwartz, 49, of Canyon Country, who could not return to her half-time Canoga Park bookkeeping job because the building was damaged. Her pay accounted for half the household income, she said. “This put all our long-term plans in question.”

Although huge numbers were affected financially and emotionally, only a tiny share of Los Angeles County residents say they have “had it” with disaster-prone Los Angeles and are ready to flee. Just 3% of respondents--and 4% in the most heavily damaged areas--said they will move because of the quake. Eight in 10 residents countywide--and more than seven in 10 in the San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita area--said they had not given up on Los Angeles.

“Tragedies happen all over, but you have the climate here,” said Leonard Zeller, 65, of Panorama City, a retiree who lost about $10,000 in smashed furniture, electronic equipment and household goods. “You can’t run. You’ve got to solve problems where you live.”

Epic disaster or no, and pleas of political leaders notwithstanding, a similarly lopsided majority of the county’s drive-alone commuters--83% of those surveyed--are not going to give up their cars in the cause of quake recovery, the poll found.

More than half the respondents countywide suffered some damage in the 6.6 temblor, the poll found, far greater than the number in a similar survey after the 1987 Whittier quake, which was far less powerful. And about 10% said their homes were left with shattered windows, cracked walls or worse.

About the same proportion of residents--one in 10--estimated losses of $5,000 or more. Combined with lesser losses, the poll points to several billions of dollars in physical damage to residences and personal possessions alone, not counting the enormous destruction to businesses, roadways, utilities and schools.

The poll of 1,116 adult residents of Los Angeles County, conducted by telephone from Friday to Sunday, is the first comprehensive statistical assessment of how the people of the most populous county in the nation fared in what is shaping up as the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

The poll did not reach those living in emergency shelters and outdoors, estimated to be in excess of 13,000 people. But they are a small share of the county population and do not significantly affect the overall findings, said John Brennan, director of The Times Poll. The margin of sampling error for the overall poll is plus or minus four percentage points.

Among the findings:

* Despite years of warnings--both from nature and government officials--the majority of county residents, 53%, did not consider themselves well-prepared for the quake. And the percentage was slightly higher in the areas of the greatest damage.

* White, middle-class residents reported slightly more overall damage, probably because the quake struck a suburban area where they tend to reside. But the poll also found that Latinos and poorer residents were most likely to report the heaviest damage. Four percent of Latinos and 6% of very low-income groups said their homes were unlivable because of the quake. Among the respondents, virtually no whites, blacks or adults from households making over $20,000 a year said their homes were uninhabitable. The age of a home appeared to matter little; there was as much major damage to residences built in the last 20 years as to those constructed earlier.

* There appears to be little blame-laying by the public for either the damage suffered, or for some of the initial problems in getting emergency aid to victims. Asked the top reasons for the damage and fatalities, 40% said it was an act of nature, 15% called it an act of God and 26% said it was no one’s fault. And a similarly lopsided majority said they were satisfied with government efforts to quickly rebuild freeways. President Clinton and Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan received strong approval of their handling of the disaster. The Federal Emergency Management Agency and Gov. Pete Wilson also received approval, although by slimmer margins. A majority of residents supports sales or other tax increases to pay for repairs.

Of the various options being proposed to fund the repairs, the most popular was a yearlong one-quarter-cent sales tax.

* Proximity to the epicenter directly correlated to losses and emotional reaction. Nearly half of those who live within five miles of the epicenter called the quake one of the worst experiences of their lives, twice the proportion 20 miles or more away. One of three respondents within five miles of the epicenter reported major damage to their homes, but that declined sharply for respondents more than 10 miles away.

Overall, traffic congestion was cited as the greatest hardship by county residents in the aftermath the quake, the poll found. But in the San Fernando-Santa Clarita valley areas, the greatest problem is dealing with emotional aftereffects, respondents said.

“It definitely is foremost on my mind and it will be for a while,” said poll respondent Merilla Scott, 36, a Northridge child psychologist. When she was 13, Scott’s home was destroyed in the 1971 Sylmar quake. Then, she said, she was “able to move on.” But now, “as an adult I’m finding I’m more fearful . . . part of it has to do with having two children and being responsible for two small lives. I’ll be feeling things are going to get back to normal, and then we have five (aftershocks) in a row, like we did on Friday,” she said.

Indeed, the quake seems to have rocked many residents’ sense of security.

Seeing the devastation of the Northridge quake, 57% of county residents are doubtful that Los Angeles can take steps to make it through the Big One relatively unscathed. Some 80% said they would feel unsafe driving on the freeways during the Big One, and about half said they would feel unsafe in their homes.

Groups most likely to feel unsafe include renters (57%), young adults (64%) and newcomers to the region (62%.)

Marbel Garcia, a 36-year-old homemaker, is among them. Though she lives in Inglewood, more than 20 miles from the epicenter and suffered no significant damage, she is worried that her home may collapse. She is considering taking her family to join relatives in New York. “If there’s another big earthquake, I’ll leave,” Garcia said, speaking in Spanish with her daughter translating.

Despite doubts about the ability of their homes to withstand a great quake, only one in four county residents had earthquake insurance prior to last week’s major temblor. Still, that is almost double the 14% who reported having it before the Whittier quake. But the poll found few more are planning to get new earthquake insurance, which generally has a high deductible.

The poll found 5% of county residents, including 13% of those in Valley areas near the epicenter and 16% of those with major damage, have sought government emergency assistance.

Transportation planners hoping for a big change in commuting habits may be disappointed. Fully 83% of those commuting alone said they will continue to do so. And in some of the areas of greatest freeway damage, such as the Santa Clarita and San Fernando valleys, even fewer expressed a willingness to car-pool or use public transit.

“I hate the bus system in this city . . . can’t stand it,” said Playa del Rey attorney David Mamann, a poll respondent whose commute to Downtown has turned into a daily hunt for free-flowing surface streets.

It is important to note that with 6.5 million cars moving over hundreds of miles of freeway in Los Angeles County, the vast majority of drivers are not significantly affected by the collapsed freeways and resulting detours.

Still, some are being horrendously delayed, perhaps accounting for the 15% of drive-alone commuters who said they may try ride-sharing, Metrolink or other public transit systems.

Schwartz, the Santa Clarita Valley bookkeeper who lost her job, said her husband has seen his commute to the San Fernando Valley, past the collapsed Newhall interchange, quadruple in duration to two hours each way.

“We’ve been hit with a double whammy,” she said. “We are looking at (public transit) alternatives.”

THE TIMES POLL: The Earthquake’s Toll

The Northridge earthquake caused far more physical and emotional damage than the 1987 Whittier quake, according to Time polls conducted after each event. More than type of dwelling, income or ethnicity, proximity to the quake’s epicenter is the strongest predictor of distress.

*

Was your residence or anything in it damaged or destroyed in the earthquake? Whittier: Major residential damage or residence uninhabitable (3%) Northridge: Major residential damage or residence uninhabitable (10%) *

Would you say you had psychological aftereffects from the earthquake? Whittier: Some aftereffects (34%) Northridge: Some aftereffects (54%) *

Would you say the earthquake was one of the worst experience of your life? Whittier: 15% Northride: 25% *

Reactions to Northridge Quake

experience residence unlivable hardship effects L.A. County 25% 9% 1% 26% 54% Distance From Quake Less than 5 miles from epicenter 46% 35% 1% 42% 74% 6-10 miles 40% 24% - 38% 69% 11-20 28% 11% - 33% 61% 21-30 20% 6% - 17% 44% More than 30 miles 15% 2% - 12% 46% Ethnic background White 24% 14% - 24% 50% Latino 30% 5% 4% 28% 64% Household status Owner 23% 10% - 20% 46% Renter 26% 6% 3% 32% 64% Age of house 20 years or less 27% 10% - 28% 56% 21 years or more 24% 9% - 21% 50% Household income Less than $20,000 28% 6% 6% 30% 63% $21,000-$40,000 23% 8% - 23% 49% $41,000-$60,000 24% 10% - 21% 56% More than $60,000 22% 13% - 24% 51%

Source: Los Angeles Times polls of Los Angeles County

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,116 adult residents of Los Angeles County by telephone Jan. 22 and 23. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the county. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that both listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and employment. An oversample of 582 San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley residents is included and weighted to its proper proportion in the countywide sample. The margin of sampling error in the total and valley samples is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For other sub-groups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.