L.A. Homicides Drop 28% in 1st Half Along With Other Crimes : Violence: Decline is linked in part to community policing and increased police presence after the quake and during World Cup. The number of annual murders could fall below 1,000 for first time since 1989.

A citywide downturn in violent crime last year has continued during the first half of 1994--raising the hope that Los Angeles’ annual homicide mark could drop below 1,000 for the first time since 1989.

The Los Angeles Police Department statistics show that the number of homicides in Los Angeles plummeted 28% in the first half of this year compared to the same period in 1993. Citywide, 376 homicides were reported during the first six months of 1994, compared to 525 during the same period last year.

Robberies fell in the first half of 1994 fell 19%. The number of aggravated assaults dropped 12%.

Authorities say the decrease may result in part from a higher police presence linked to community policing efforts, and to unusual events such as the Northridge earthquake in January and the World Cup this summer.

Other factors may include more active neighborhood crime prevention activities, an increased police focus on areas with high-crime clusters, a continuing truce among some African American street gangs in South-Central Los Angeles and a Mexican Mafia edict against drive-by shootings that has cooled tensions among many Latino gangs.

The state’s “three strikes” law, enacted in March to lengthen prison terms for repeat felony offenders, is probably too new to have had much of an impact, police officials say.

However, authorities acknowledge that all such hypotheses are no more than informed speculation about what could be an emerging trend--but could also turn out to be a mere blip on the criminal radar screen.

“It is encouraging,” Deputy Police Chief Mark Kroeker said. “But I guess the last thing we should all do is say, ‘Oh, it’s because of certain strategies we’re talking about in police work.’ If you start taking credit for crime decreases, you better start getting ready to take the blame for crime increases as well.”

Moreover, authorities say, the downward trend is only relative. The FBI’s latest national figures showed that the rate of violent crime in Los Angeles--1,778 per 100,000 people in 1992--was almost 44% higher than in the New York metropolitan area.

“I kind of compare it to a patient with an abnormally high fever,” said Kroeker, who supervises the LAPD’s South Bureau. “Suddenly, we may see a decline in the fever--but the patient is still very sick. In the same way, the crime load is still very high and people aren’t ready to say, ‘Hey, we feel just fine about our neighborhood.’ ”

The new LAPD statistics show an overall decrease in major felonies in every police division in the city during the first six months of 1994. All 18 divisions except for the Harbor Division also reported a decrease in the four most common violent crimes--homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault.

Divisions showing the largest decreases in violent crime were West Los Angeles, down 25%; 77th Street, down 22%, and Rampart, down 20%.

In Rampart, which includes the MacArthur Park neighborhood, there were 3,306 violent crimes, compared to 4,126 during the first six months last year.

Lt. Dan Hills, commanding officer of the Rampart detective bureau, said the devastating earthquake displaced tenants in some of the area’s most overcrowded and transient-filled apartment buildings.

“When you take a significant number of these people and put them somewhere else because the buildings are uninhabitable, that will bring your crime rate down,” Hills said.

Then in June, the LAPD’s tough Metro Division was deployed to Rampart. Its mission, Hills said, was to discourage over-exuberant World Cup celebrations in the neighborhood, whose predominantly Central American immigrant population includes many soccer enthusiasts.

“When Metro comes in, it’s like doubling the number of street officers,” Hills said. “We had a 40% reduction in street robberies during that month alone.”

After homicides dropped 30% citywide during the first quarter of 1994, some criminologists attributed the decline squarely on the Northridge earthquake.

But Assistant Chief Bernard Parks said the dip cannot be traced solely to the quake because it began well before the earth shook, and has picked up speed more recently.

“Anytime you have a major unusual occurrence such as an earthquake, that does have an impact,” Parks said. “Crime drops significantly. But now we’re into August and the trend has continued for another six months.

“In the past, you might have had one bureau where crime was up and another where crime was down and they balanced each other. 1993 was the first time in my memory where all 18 divisions had a crime reduction and in 1994 they are all down again.”

Parks said the key factor is more police on the street, which has occurred at various times in preparation for the trials stemming from the police beating of Rodney G. King and from the 1992 riots that resulted after four LAPD officers were found not guilty in the initial state trial stemming from the incident.

“A lot has to do with deployment,” Parks said. “There’s been a number of unusual events such as the trials which have resulted in putting more police on the streets.”

The city’s major crime decrease reflects similar trends in Southern California and nationwide.

According to the FBI, serious crimes reported to police dropped 3% nationwide last year after increases of 1% in 1992, 5% in 1991 and 11% in 1990.

Crime in Ventura County fell 9.1% in 1993. In the first five months of 1994, in areas of Los Angeles County patrolled by sheriff’s deputies, homicides were down 8%, rapes 23%, robberies, 8% and aggravated assaults 20%.

USC sociology professor Daniel Glaser said the main reason that violence is decreasing may be the aging of the nation’s population. “Most of the violent crime is committed by young people roughly 15 to 25 years old. And they are becoming a smaller proportion of the population.”

Yet there is widespread perception that the crime rate is getting worse. “Although the number of crimes is declining,” Glaser said, “the amount of space in the newspapers and the amount of time on the TV media devoted to crime has been going up.

“The media grasps what the people pay attention to.”

A Less Violent City Here are four major categories of violent crimes reported to the Los Angeles Police Department for the first six months of 1994 compared tothe first six months of 1993, and homicide totals since 1988: Homicide 1994: 376 1993: 525 *Forcible Rape 1994: 821 1993: 861 *Robbery 1994: 15,262 1993: 18,811 *Aggravated Assault 1994: 19,154 1993: 21,852 *Yearly Homicide Totals For The City of Los Angeles In Thousands ‘94: 376 (Through June 30) Source: Los Angeles Police Department