If Watters Runs Deep, the 49ers Will Be Still

Week one, the playoff questions, and all the answers:

Who has the edge in the Revenge Bowl between Philadelphia’s Ricky Watters and the San Francisco 49ers?

San Francisco. No contest. Watters, who holds the NFL postseason record with five touchdowns against the New York Giants in a 1993 victory for the 49ers, has scored 12 touchdowns in nine playoff games. But to win, the Eagles must control the ball, and the 49er defense has allowed only one 100-yard rusher in the last 22 games. Matched against Ty “Tom Thumb” Detmer at quarterback, San Francisco can dedicate more attention to their former running back and probably have Watters whining by halftime.

What team should have its bags packed in preparation for a long winter’s nap?

Minnesota. The Vikings were hot to start the season with running back Robert Smith, but Smith got hurt, Minnesota collapsed, and suddenly there were rumors about Lou Holtz replacing Dennis Green as coach. Then Leroy Hoard became available, and while that hardly seems significant, he ran effectively and allowed Brad Johnson to smoothly replace an injured Warren Moon at quarterback. But Hoard injured his knee in the last game, and while he’s expected to play, if he’s not effective, it might be time to put a call into Holtz after all--Green is 0-3 in the playoffs.

What team might want to think about throwing more?

Minnesota. But forget it. The Cowboys rank No. 2 in the NFL in pass defense, and while Johnson has been hot down the stretch in relief of Moon, this is a game where the Vikings need that experience Moon would provide. Prediction: Kevin Smith gets two interceptions, Deion Sanders one and Moon is in there in the fourth quarter.

Which team is the most one-dimensional?

Pittsburgh. Stop Jerome Bettis, known as “the bus,” to his teammates, and the Steelers have to rely on Mike Tomczak, known as “the stiff.” Or, they might get tricky with Kordell Stewart. The Steelers’ passing attack ranked No. 27, and Tomczak threw for 15 touchdowns with 17 interceptions--not exactly confidence-bolstering numbers for the playoffs. Bettis ran for more than 100 yards 10 times this season, but he has been bothered by a sore ankle, and, not so coincidentally, the Steelers have faltered. If the Steelers fall behind, those terrible towels will be waving to get Coach Bill Cowher’s attention with an accompanying chant: Put Stewart in.

Who has no business being in the playoffs, but the best chance to play the role of Indianapolis this season, win two games on the road and come that close to making it to the Super Bowl?

Indianapolis. The Colts are a highway accident waiting for the ambulance to appear. They couldn’t beat Cincinnati to gain the home-field advantage for the first wild-card game and backed into the playoffs. They lost linebacker Trev Alberts in practice because of a hamstring injury, officially giving them more injuries than dead warriors in “Braveheart.” But they won three games in a row down the stretch and Captain Comeback, otherwise known as Jim Harbaugh, is not only healthy, but has a fit Marshall Faulk to run the ball. The Colts’ offense ranked No. 28 running the ball, but that was without Faulk much of the year. Last year Harbaugh’s last-second fling rested on the belly of Aaron Bailey in the end zone before rolling incomplete to the turf and sending the Steelers to the Super Bowl. If the Colts beat the Steelers, they get an upset try at Denver.

Who is the hottest team in the NFL? (Hint: Think obscure.)

Jacksonville. The Jaguars needed an act of God--Morten Andersen missing his first field goal attempt from 30 yards after 59 consecutive hits--to make the playoffs, but they have won five games in a row. That means they were 4-7 at one time and no threat to beat the likes of Baltimore, St. Louis or Atlanta. But quarterback Mark Brunell and the power running of Natrone Means makes Jacksonville explosive on offense. A couple of quick scores on Buffalo, and the Bills’ aging attack might not be able to keep up.

Who is the first team expected to lose in the playoffs?

Jacksonville. The hottest team in football does its business in Florida, but opens the playoffs in the frozen hinterlands of Buffalo. Watch the crowd around the heaters on the sideline. The Bills, meanwhile, are 9-0 at Rich Stadium in postseason play.

Who has the best chance of winning in a romp on the first weekend?

San Francisco. The 49ers haven’t played a wild-card game since losing to the Giants in 1985, but they have won six of their last seven opening postseason games and have outscored their opponents, 211-63. Besides, they’re playing the Eagles, whose claim to fame down the stretch was victories over the Jets and Cardinals.

Who has the best quarterback in the playoffs?

Dallas. John Elway has been the best throughout the regular season, Brett Favre is exciting but unpredictable and Steve Young is sound again, but Troy Aikman plays at a different level at a time when mistakes send other people home for the off-season. Aikman is 10-2 in postseason games and his 104.3 playoff rating is second only to Green Bay’s Bart Starr (104.8). And, of course, Favre is no Bart Starr.

Who has the best chance of falling apart?

Green Bay. The Packers go as the excitable Favre goes, and if he lets the Cheeseheads influence him and starts throwing footballs everywhere, look out. The Packers auditioned Edgar Bennett and Dorsey Levens for prime-time contributions near the end of the regular season, and they could keep the pressure off Favre from trying to do it all by himself. But Favre has yet to prove himself with everything on the line, and how soon before Andre Rison starts squawking about not getting the ball more?

Who has the second-best chance of falling apart?

Carolina. The Panthers have never lost in Ericsson Stadium, but then they have never played in a playoff game and probably will be matched against the defending Super Bowl champions, the Cowboys. Gulp. In expecting the Panthers to gag, it should be pointed out that they flashed firepower in beating the 49ers earlier, but Kerry Collins and Co. are probably still a year or two away from contending with Aikman and Emmitt Smith.

Who has to hope for an Indianapolis victory?

New England. The Patriots are not a particularly physical football team, and the Steelers are, and that’s who New England will have to play if Pittsburgh wins. The Patriots would have their problems with Bettis and the Steelers’ 3-4 defense, but they have the weapons to take on the more traditional Colts. New England also has to hope for a Denver loss, because the Patriots have lost eight in a row to the Broncos--that’s a lot of hoping.

Who has to worry about history repeating itself?

Denver. The Broncos clinched early and tried to fake it down the stretch to keep everyone healthy. But have they lost their edge? Denver, currently 13-3, went 13-3 in 1984, then lost a divisional playoff game at home to Pittsburgh--which was being quarterbacked by Mark Malone--the greatest bounce passer since Magic Johnson.

Who has the toughest task this weekend?

Philadelphia. The Eagle defense must try to do something that no other team has accomplished--keep 49er wide receiver Jerry Rice from dictating the outcome of the game. Rice has caught at least one pass in 19 consecutive playoff games and overall has 111 catches for 1,656 yards with 17 touchdowns--all NFL records. Philadelphia’s pass defense ranked No. 5 in the NFC, but down the stretch faced six opponents with a combined record of 32-48.

Who has the best secret weapons?

Indianapolis. Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison has four touchdown catches in the last four games, and kicker Cary Blanchard kicked 36 field goals for an injured team that needed to cash in on every scoring opportunity. That would make some headline: Paced by Harrison and Blanchard (who?), the Colts advance to the Super Bowl.

What team is being guided by the Lombardi touch?

Pittsburgh. Coach Bill Cowher has advanced to the postseason in 11 of his 12 NFL seasons as a head coach or an assistant. He is the third coach in NFL history to go to the playoffs in each of his first five seasons. That’s some feat when you consider he has had Neil O’Donnell, Jim Miller and Mike Tomczak at quarterback. He was also mentor to Dom Capers, who is taking Carolina to the playoffs in only his second year as coach.

Which team has the most deceiving statistics?

Dallas. The Cowboys rank No. 24 overall on offense with Aikman, running back Smith and wide receiver Michael Irvin. The loss of tight end Jay Novacek has been devastating, but the return of Eric Bjornson from two sprained ankles will be a boon to the passing game. Note to Minnesota fans: In two games against the Vikings, Smith has scored three touchdowns and averaged 127 yards.

Who has the No. 1 passing attack going into the playoffs? (Hint: Think obscure.)

Jacksonville. The Jaguars are No. 1, but don’t start making plans for that ticker-tape parade quite yet. Quarterback Mark Brunell has thrown for 4,367 yards and 19 touchdowns, but he has also been intercepted 20 times.

Who has the best motivation to win the whole thing?

A tie: Denver and Buffalo. Quarterback John Elway is 0-3 in Super Bowls, although he carried very mediocre Denver teams on his back to even get there. In 13 postseason starts, Elway is 7-6 with 19 touchdown passes, four rushing touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Buffalo has kept its roster together despite losing four Super Bowls and being every comedian’s punch line. The Bills do not appear to have much life left in them, and defensive end Bruce Smith will be a free agent at season’s end. Quarterback Jim Kelly, running back Thurman Thomas and wide receiver Andre Reed are in serious need of Geritol, and on his next birthday, Coach Marv Levy will be 72.

Finally, who has almost no motivation to keep winning?

Denver, Buffalo, Dallas, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England, Carolina and San Francisco. Most players will take a pay cut to keep on playing and risk injury. Wild-card participants this weekend will earn $10,000--tip money for the superstars. Division winners get $14,000--a night out for Irvin at his favorite hotel. For winning the Super Bowl, each player will receive an additional $48,000--Deion Sanders has that much money hanging around his neck in jewelry.

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Playoffs at a Glance

WILD-CARD GAMES

SATURDAY

No. 5 Jacksonville (9-7) at No. 4 Buffalo (10-6)

9:30 a.m., Channel 7

No. 6 Minnesota (9-7) at No. 3 Dallas (10-6)

1 p.m., Channel 7

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SUNDAY

No. 6 Indianapolis (9-7) at No. 3 Pittsburgh (10-6)

9:30 a.m., Channel 4

No. 5 Philadelphia (10-6) at No. 4 San Francisco (12-4)

1 p.m., Channel 11

DIVISIONAL GAMES

SATURDAY, JAN. 4 AND SUNDAY, JAN. 5

* AFC: In the second round, No. 1 Denver (13-3) will play host to the lowest-seeded team left, regardless of record. No. 2 New England (11-5) will play host to the remaining team.

* NFC: In the second round, No. 1 Green Bay (13-3) will play host to the lowest-seeded team left, regardless of record. No. 2 Carolina (12-4) will play host to the remaining team.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

* Sunday, Jan. 12

*

SUPER BOWL XXXI

* Sunday, Jan. 26 at New Orleans

3:15 p.m., Ch. 11