Win Is No Guarantee of Derby Success Later

For the last 13 years, the equation has been simple.

Success in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile equals failure the next spring in the Kentucky Derby.

Beginning with Chief’s Crown, the first Juvenile winner at Hollywood Park in 1984, and continuing through Boston Harbor, who won the race last year at Woodbine, no colt has completed the Juvenile-Derby parlay.

Some were derailed by injuries and others regressed as 3-year-olds. Only two have even hit the board at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Chief’s Crown was third in 1985 and Timber Country was third in 1995 before winning the Preakness two weeks later.

What lies ahead for the 2-year-old class of 1997 remains to be seen, but Favorite Trick is clearly the top student heading into the final exam Saturday at Hollywood Park.

A son of the brilliant sprinter Phone Trick, the Kentucky-bred colt has passed every test presented him by trainer Pat Byrne. He has started seven times and won them all, winning at Churchill Downs three times and Keeneland and Saratoga twice each.

Even if he loses in his California debut, many still will believe he deserves the Eclipse Award as the 2-year-old champion.

An eighth consecutive victory and some will trumpet him as horse of the year. No 2-year-old has been so honored since Secretariat in 1972. Depending on what happens in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Turf, Favorite Trick would merit consideration.

If the pride of owner Joseph LaCombe’s stable is to remain perfect, he will have to do it against the forces of trainers Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert.

Lukas, who has won the Juvenile five times and twice in the last three years, will saddle three-eighths of the field. He will be represented by Time Limit, Double Honor and Grand Slam, his best hope. Successful in the Champagne a few weeks ago at Belmont Park, Grand Slam worked five furlongs in 57 4/5 Monday morning at Santa Anita.

Baffert, meanwhile, who has won nearly every 2-year-old race in California this year, will have two entrants--Johnbill and Souvenir Copy.

Highly touted before he debuted this summer at Del Mar, Johnbill did not break his maiden until his fourth start, winning at the Juvenile distance on the first day of Santa Anita’s Oak Tree meeting last month. He continues to train well and, who knows, might turn out to be as good as expected.

Souvenir Copy is far more accomplished. He has won three of four while being ridden by a different jockey each time. Chris McCarron, who took off the son of Mr. Prospector after he won the Del Mar Futurity to ride the now-sidelined Old Trieste in the Norfolk Stakes on Oct. 19, will be back aboard Saturday.

Able to overcome adversity in his Del Mar Futurity victory, Souvenir Copy stretched out around two turns to win the one-mile Norfolk. He continues to train well and Baffert considers him ahead of Silver Charm, who won the ’96 Del Mar Futurity and the Kentucky Derby and Preakness earlier this year, at the same stage.

KEYS TO THE RACE: Favorite Trick will have sterner competition to deal with in his California debut than he did in his last at Keeneland, when he had only four rivals. He and the other two top contenders, Grand Slam and Souvenir Copy, have shown the ability to rate, so may each get his opportunity and let the best horse win in the day’s most compelling race.

THE HORSES

Nationalore is a maiden with no chance of winning, but his late-running style might enable him to pick up a piece of the purse. His owner-trainer, Myung Kwon Cho, sent Critical Factor to Woodbine last year for the Juvenile Fillies and she ran third at 82-1. Since then, however, she hasn’t been better than fourth in five starts.

Souvenir Copy is the son of Mr. Prospector out of a Nureyev mare. Baffert is confident this dark bay will run well Saturday. Horses who made their final start in California before the Breeders’ Cup have won the Juvenile all four times the Breeders’ Cup has been held in California.

Favorite Trick is unbeaten, and although he didn’t beat much in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 18, he did rally wide against a strong inside bias. He has been involved in only one close finish, on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs, when he won the WHAS Stakes by a neck over Cowboy Dan. Since then, his smallest margin of victory is 1 1/2 lengths.

Johnbill was the even-money favorite in his debut July 26 on the strength of some high praise from Baffert, but the Slew City Slew colt finished fourth. He failed again at 1-2, but he has improved since he was stretched out. He made his last look easy, but there certainly was no Favorite Trick, Grand Slam or Souvenir Copy behind him.

Double Honor set the pace in the Del Mar Futurity and Norfolk Stakes and could be on the lead again Saturday, but he looks to have distance limitations. He couldn’t stay going seven furlongs or a mile, so why believe he’ll last at 1 1/16 miles? His two victories have come at five and six furlongs.

Time Limit is the final member of Lukas’ trio and the gelded son of Gilded Time, who won the Juvenile in 1992 and the Eclipse as the top 2-year-old that year, has to be admired for his consistency. He has three wins and three seconds in six starts and certainly can handle travel. Hollywood Park will be the sixth track at which he has raced.

Grand Slam wore down Lil’s Lad, who set some fast splits, to win the Champagne and it was 4 1/2 lengths back to the third-place finisher. He also had to survive a foul claim. He has won three of his four starts and is two for two with Gary Stevens, who will ride Saturday. Lukas also trained this colt’s dam, Bright Candles. This will be Grand Slam’s first race around two turns.

Dawson’s Legacy, a Canadian horse, was the 2-1 favorite in the Grey Breeders’ Cup on Oct. 11 when he lost by nearly four lengths to Black Cash, who was declared out of the Juvenile on Wednesday. Any running he does figures to come from off the pace.

Horse: 1. Nationalore

Wt.: 122

Jockey: E. Delahoussaye

Trainer: M. Cho

Owner: M. Cho

Odds: 30-1

*

Horse: 2. Souvenir Copy

Wt.: 122

Jockey: C. McCarron

Trainer: B. Baffert

Owner: Golden Eagle Farm

Odds: 3-1

*

Horse: 3. Favorite Trick

Wt.: 122

Jockey: P. Day

Trainer: P. Byrne

Owner: J. LaCombe Stable

Odds: 7-5

*

Horse: 4. Johnbill

Wt.: 122

Jockey: D. Flores

Trainer: B. Baffert

Owner: M. Pegram

Odds: 10-1

*

Horse: 5. Double Honor

Wt.: 122

Jockey: A. Solis

Trainer: W. Lukas

Owner: The Thoroughbred Corp.

Odds: 10-1

*

Horse: 6. Time Limit

Wt.: 122

Jockey: S. Sellers

Trainer: W. Lukas

Owner: Overbrook Farm

Odds: 15-1

*

Horse: 7. Dawson’s Legacy

Wt.: 122

Jockey: T. Kabel

Trainer: R. Schnitzler

Owner: J.M. Stritzl Stable

Odds: 20-1

*

Horse: Grand Slam

Wt.: 122

Jockey: G. Stevens

Trainer: W. Lukas

Owner: Baker, Cornstein and Mack

Odds: 5-2

ET

*--*

Post: 1:15 p.m.

Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

Purse: $1 million.

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COMING FRIDAY

A look at the turf.