SPORTS EXTRA / FOOTBALL ‘99: NFL PREVIEW : THE NFL : To Pick Winner, Raid Schedule

To pick the Super Bowl champion, first you must eliminate the losers.

That takes care of the Raiders.

They open the season at Green Bay, which has the second-best record in the NFC at home the last decade (60-20), and only one defeat in Lambeau Field the last three years.

That’s one Raider loss.

The second week, the Raiders travel to Minnesota, which has the third-best record in the NFC at home the last decade (55-25), and won eight straight a year ago.

That’s two.

They return home to silence, where they haven’t sold out a regular-season game since the opener in 1997, to romp over the Bears.

They won’t win again until November.

“That’s what people tell me,” said Jon Gruden, the Raiders’ coach. “Here’s the thing: Last year everybody said, ‘It’s gonna be tough on you, Jonny, you’re just a kid with a tough schedule, opening at Kansas City, at Dallas, then the Denver Broncos and the Giants,’ and they were defending NFC East champs.

“Our No. [2] draft choice [Leon Bender] tragically passed away, we lose our No. 1 quarterback [Jeff George] with a groin injury for 12 games along with our free safety [Eric Turner] for 12 games.”

Thanks for the memories . . .

“But we managed to fight hard and stay together,” added Gruden, whose team lost five of the last six and finished 8-8--home for the holidays.

The Raiders may be better this season, but their record may not reflect it. They have the toughest schedule in the league, their opponents having posted a .570 winning percentage a year ago. The Jets and Buccaneers have the next-toughest schedules. Their opponents were at .539, but that’s a considerable gap between them and the Raiders’ foes.

“This isn’t a coincidence,” said Bruce Allen, Raider senior assistant. “They can’t tell me a computer did it because we’re right by Silicon Valley and we know all about computers and somebody has to put the information in.”

Bravo, NFL, if the league is responsible for putting a stop to the nauseating “team of the decades” announcement at every Raider game: “The only team to have been in Super Bowls in the ‘60s, ‘70s and ‘80s.”

It’s not going to happen in the ‘90s. The Raiders--74-70 since 1990--have to hope they win at least seven games just to make sure they finish better than .500 this decade.

“Maybe the schedule has something to do with the fact we might be the only team with a $1-billion lawsuit against the league,” Allen said.

They will probably lose that too.

After the home game against Chicago, they go to Seattle for a Sunday night game against Mike Holmgren’s Seahawks before a national TV audience. Holmgren, an NFL-best 49-7 in home games while in charge in Green Bay, will undoubtedly have the Kingdome rocking.

The schedule gets even nastier if the A’s get a wild-card berth in the American League baseball playoffs. Instead of playing the Broncos in the Coliseum on Oct. 10, the game will be switched to Denver, which has the AFC’s best home record since 1989, 63-17, 24 consecutive victories and former Raider coach Mike Shanahan, who has a 34-8 mark at Mile High Stadium.

The schedule calls for another road game, in Buffalo, the following week--putting five of the team’s first six games on the road if the A’s advance--against four of the top six teams at home since 1989. Buffalo has the AFC’s third-best home mark the last decade, 60-20.

Oakland returns home to confront the Jets and Dolphins, who are expected to vie for the AFC East Division title.

If all goes well, the Raiders should be going into their bye weekend with a 1-7 record.

After eliminating the Raiders from Super Bowl contention, you can give up on the Lions, as Barry Sanders did.

You can also cross off the teams that have chosen to play this season without a quarterback, New Orleans and the New York Giants, or with quarterbacks not ready to win, Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Cleveland. Then you can forget the teams with quarterbacks who will never be ready to win, Baltimore and Carolina.

You can dismiss any team commanded by a Munchkin at quarterback: Chicago and Buffalo.

You have to disregard the Chargers because Ryan Leaf is hurt and unable to play.

Brad Johnson isn’t hurt yet, but he will be, so there goes Washington. Steve McNair has a bad back in Tennessee, which leaves Neil O’Donnell fumbling the load. New England is still trying to account for the loss of Bill Parcells and Curtis Martin.

Jake Plummer rolled the dice and came up a winner in seven of eight games decided by three or fewer points last season. Odds say things have to even out for the Cardinals this year, keeping Arizona out of the Super Bowl.

Dallas is too old, St. Louis too young. Atlanta had its fling, Tampa Bay still has Trent Dilfer. Indianapolis needs some defense to go along with Peyton Manning; Seattle needs a quarterback to go with its defense.

Even the hicks from Kansas City aren’t counting on a big performance from Elvis. Dan Marino’s no John Elway, and neither is Brian Griese. So much for Miami and Denver.

The 49ers are no longer the 49ers of old when San Francisco ruled the NFC West.

Could you pick a team to win it all, knowing Vinny Testaverde was the starting quarterback? That grounds the Jets.

Green Bay is right there, but doesn’t get the frozen tundra advantage in the playoffs, keeping the Packers out of the Super Bowl.

Minnesota plays in Super Bowl XXXIV, Jan. 30, 2000, in Atlanta, and opens a 10-point favorite.

Then gets beat by Jacksonville.