O.C. Gets Target for Housing

With a well-documented shortage of housing countywide, regional planning authorities forecast that Orange County will need 75,000 new housing units in the next five years, a third of which they say should be priced for low-income and very-low-income residents.

Individual cities are in the final stages of evaluating their own housing needs to meet a state-imposed planning deadline that will shape their building plans for five years. The 75,000 recommended new homes would represent a nearly 8% increase over the county’s 990,311 existing units estimated by the Center for Demographic Research at Cal State Fullerton.

The figures, culled by the Southern California Assn. of Governments, indicate a need for low-income units and housing in general that experts say is extremely unlikely to be met.

Households with annual incomes below $34,150 are considered very low income. An annual income ranging from that number to $47,800 is considered low income. Countywide, SCAG estimates there is a need for 15,047 units for very-low-income households and 9,725 homes for low-income households. The recommended number of such subsidized units is distributed throughout the county, based on a formula that is intended to eventually bring the various cities in line with the regional average.

Anaheim, for example, is in the first phase of a $55.9-million revitalization of its troubled Jeffrey-Lynne neighborhood that calls for the conversion of 249 one-bedroom apartments to 212 one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments. But according to SCAG, the city needs 11,508 new homes by 2005, with some 38% of them designated for households in the two lowest income categories. The city has appealed the number, saying the total should be only 7,523 new housing units.

“We want the numbers to reflect what we see are more realistic goals,” said Bertha Chavoya, Anaheim’s housing manager.

Chavoya said that even if the target numbers are reduced, Anaheim still won’t be able to fulfill the expected need. “We wish we had the money to provide everyone with affordable housing. We’ll continue to expand and develop affordable housing. But I can tell you right now, we’ll not come near that number,” she said.

The shortage of housing is a problem countywide, said Allen Baldwin, executive director of the private, nonprofit Orange County Community Housing Corp. “The 7,000 won’t get built. Neither will the 11,000,” Baldwin said. “It’s not just Anaheim. It’s all our cities.”

Laguna Niguel, Santa Ana and Westminster also have appealed the numbers of new homes that regional authorities say they should prepare to build, objecting in particular to the proportion of the county’s low-income units that SCAG says those cities should bear. Tustin has appealed as well, seeking an adjustment because of the closure of the former military base in the city.

“The reality is that collectively, the local areas probably won’t deliver the number of houses in total that the numbers call for,” said George Britton, a manager in the county’s planning and development services department. “I think the biggest issue for local jurisdictions is that the numbers are unrealistically high, given the market trends.”

The planning reports are intended to be used by cities to develop zoning regulations and determine the allocation of state and federal housing grants. The reports are required by the state to make sure cities don’t enact zoning barriers that would prevent housing for low-income residents from being built. But although the figures are considered guidelines for future projects, they are by no means an assurance that the homes will be built. That is determined largely by the market.

The critical shortage of affordable housing in Orange County is for the most part a result of the region’s skyrocketing property values, said real estate consultant Richard Gollis, a partner at the Concord Group. Another barrier is the burdensome regulatory process that developers must follow in order to build government-subsidized low-income housing.

“The availability of land is the biggest barrier to delivering low-cost housing to Orange County,” Gollis said. “In the private market, you build to market value unless there is a way to support the project with other programs. We really haven’t had the political will collectively to say, ‘OK, we are in good economic times.’ How can we make adjustments with the fee structures cities and other public agencies are taking now, to offset land prices?”

And the county must not only build low-income housing, but locate it where low-income residents will have access to public transportation that will take them to jobs, Gollis said. “The lack of affordable housing in the region . . . relative to where the critical employment centers are located is the greatest threat to the region’s economy,” Gollis said.

Baldwin said the problem is that cities and local governments have yet to acknowledge a problem. “I’m disappointed in the lack of leadership that’s necessary to point this out to [Orange County’s] citizenry and federal government,” he said.