No Playing Favorites

Everyone loves a favorite at Oscar time, even if it’s only as a highly visible target it would be fun to unseat. But this year, with nomination ballots scheduled to go into the mail Tuesday, not only is there no “Saving Private Ryan” on the horizon, there’s no “Shakespeare in Love” either, and the Oscar races across the board look as wide open as possible.

In the best picture category, of course, there is a favorite (human nature wouldn’t have it any other way), but it’s a most unusual one that certainly didn’t have that label when it was released. Still, a survey of veteran Oscar prognosticators reveals that only one film is a lock for a best picture nomination: the edgy and provocative “American Beauty,” which touched an unexpected chord not only in critics but in a surprisingly large number of moviegoers as well.

Though “The Insider’s” box-office performance has not been impressive, the critics awards (including best picture from the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.) that have accrued to the film and its story of malfeasance in big tobacco and big broadcasting make it a likely nominee.

Also on most people’s list are a pair of period dramas. “The End of the Affair,” with its noteworthy pedigree (Neil Jordan out of Graham Greene) and a cast that includes Julianne Moore, Ralph Fiennes and Stephen Rea, is classic academy material. The same goes for “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” as beautiful filmmaking and respect for Anthony Minghella and “The English Patient’s” Oscars probably will overcome resistance to the plot.

If there is a late-opening, fast-closing underdog with just about a sure chance, it is “The Hurricane,” directed by liked and respected veteran Norman Jewison. Propelled by a ferocious Denzel Washington performance, this is a film whose drawbacks of obviousness and conventionality will probably play as virtues to a good percentage of the academy membership.

Several other films, though less likely, can’t be counted out of the race. These include “The Cider House Rules,” “The Green Mile” (whose chances, even with the academy, would have been stronger at a more manageable length) and “Angela’s Ashes.” Also outside shots whose popularity may unfortunately work against them are “The Sixth Sense” and the effervescent “Toy Story 2.”

In the other categories, the favorites look to be as follows:

BEST DIRECTOR: Even though this is a relatively small and exclusive branch that has traditionally voted for people with track records, “American Beauty’s” Sam Mendes, who does have a considerable theater career, will be hard to keep out. The veteran Jewison is likely for “The Hurricane,” as is Michael Mann for “The Insider,” Minghella for “Ripley” and quite likely Jordan for “Affair.” If the branch feels frisky, Pedro Almodovar for “All About My Mother” is possible, as are the respected Barry Levinson for “Liberty Heights” and Milos Forman for “Man on the Moon,” though all are longshots. Talented newcomers like Paul Thomas Anderson (“Magnolia”) and David O. Russell (“Three Kings”) usually have an even tougher time.

BEST ACTOR: Headed by Washington (the probable eventual winner as well) for “The Hurricane,” the list of nominees in this category seems one of the most predictable. Likeliest are Kevin Spacey for “American Beauty”; Russell Crowe, remembered from “L.A. Confidential,” for “The Insider”; and, with a lock on the considerable senior citizen vote, the irresistible Richard Farnsworth in “The Straight Story.” Also an academy favorite and a likely nominee, despite an unsuitable role, is Matt Damon for “Ripley.” Which means that both Tom Hanks, not gathering much heat for “The Green Mile,” and Jim Carrey, brilliant in the off-putting “Man on the Moon,” have to be relegated to the longshot category.

BEST ACTRESS: Critics are not usually much of a factor in how the academy votes, but the overwhelming support for Hilary Swank in “Boys Don’t Cry” (she’s won best actress from just about every group) makes her nomination one of the surest. Right alongside her should be Annette Bening from “American Beauty.” In the next tier back are Julianne Moore (benefiting from her “Magnolia” exposure) in “The End of the Affair” and, if enough members play the tape, respected stage actress Janet McTeer in “Tumbleweeds.” Also contenders in difficult films are Kate Winslet in “Holy Smoke” and Sigourney Weaver in “A Map of the World.” And though usual academy favorite Jodie Foster and “Anna and the King” will be out in the cold, Meryl Streep, also a perennial favorite and luminous as always in “Music of the Heart,” cannot be counted out.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Three nominees seem relatively sure here, two of them going to some of the business’ biggest names and one to a relative newcomer. The big names are Michael Caine, whose American accent should do the trick for “The Cider House Rules,” and Tom Cruise, playing against expectation (always something the academy likes) in “Magnolia.” The newcomer is Michael Clarke Duncan, the largest presence in “The Green Mile.” More distant possibilities include Christopher Plummer, dead-on as Mike Wallace in “The Insider”; John Malkovich playing himself in “Being John Malkovich”; Wes Bentley in “American Beauty”; Cruise’s “Magnolia” co-star Jason Robards; and possibly even Max Von Sydow in “Snow Falling on Cedars.” Also talked about is Jude Law in “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” but Law’s co-star, Philip Seymour Hoffman, the best thing in the film, may be handicapped by having given an almost equally good performance in “Magnolia,” thus splitting his own vote.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: This is an extremely fluid category, with few sure things. The surest seems to be Angelina Jolie in a classic supporting nominee role in “Girl, Interrupted.” Right behind her is Samantha Morton, charming and wordless in Woody Allen’s “Sweet and Lowdown.” And though it’s not her strongest performance, the academy’s infatuation with Gwyneth Paltrow may continue with “Ripley.” Similarly, respected Natalie Portman is a contender with “Anywhere but Here.” After that group, there is a sizable crowd of more distant possibilities: Cherry Jones in “Cradle Will Rock,” Emily Watson in “Angela’s Ashes,” Thora Birch in “American Beauty,” Catherine Keener in “Being John Malkovich,” Toni Collette in “The Sixth Sense,” and so on into the night.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The screenplay categories are the pride of the academy, the place where truly innovative and interesting work is the likeliest to be recognized. In the original category, Alan Ball’s script for “American Beauty” is close to a sure thing, as is Charlie Kaufman’s for “Being John Malkovich.” This will also probably be the category where M. Night Shyamalan’s “Sixth Sense” gets some recognition. Other contenders include David O. Russell for “Three Kings,” Barry Levinson for “Liberty Heights,” Kimberly Peirce and Andy Bienen for “Boys Don’t Cry” and Woody Allen, a perennial academy favorite, for “Sweet and Lowdown.” And don’t forget that the original “Toy Story” got a writing nomination, and the sequel (with eight credited writers) might manage one as well.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: In the adapted category, except for Eric Roth and Mann for “The Insider,” and Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor for “Election,” all the likely films are set in period. These include “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” “The End of the Affair” and “The Cider House Rules” (with a script by John Irving from his own novel). Even possible but less likely films like “Angela’s Ashes” (Laura Jones and Alan Parker) and “Mansfield Park” (Patricia Rozema) found the past to be a comfort.