His Crystal Ball Has Rearview Mirror

Editor’s note: Due to a production error, incredibly foretelling portions of Chris Dufresne’s preseason prognostications were left out of last month’s college football preview section. Given the way things have turned out, we greatly regret the omissions and plan to compensate the writer with more vacation time.

Here is what Mr. Dufresne wrote in August (pinky-swear honest):

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Random thoughts while wondering how Indiana basketball Coach Bob Knight is holding up under “zero tolerance” . . .

I fearlessly predict the Pacific 10 will shock the world in September and emerge as the preeminent football conference in America. A 19-4 nonconference record through Sept. 16 would not surprise me.

UCLA will low-bridge Alabama and Michigan at the Rose Bowl, manhandling these pretenders in the trenches with physical, West Coast, smash-mouth play.

You read it here first: Three Pac-10 teams will be ranked among the top 10 on Sept. 17.

Also: My Weather Channel sources say a violent lightning storm will probably wipe out Virginia Tech’s Aug. 28 home opener against Georgia Tech. Don’t rent a car, Lee Corso (yuck, yuck).

The way we hear it, Penn State is so low on oil that Coach Joe Paterno may need three years to get the seven wins required to eclipse Bear Bryant’s record for major college victories.

Paterno had better step it up or else Florida State’s Bobby Bowden, with 304 wins, will beat JoePa to Bear’s 323 mark.

News flash: The Psychic Friends Network is reporting it’s going to be a banner year for the Toledos, Bob and Ohio.

No. 1 Nebraska at unranked Notre Dame on Sept. 9?

This is a dead-even game, trust me, and forget the four-leaf clover crud about Irish fans being so divinely devoted. We hear 30,000 Nebraskans are ready to turn Notre Dame Stadium into the Red Sea by paying top dollar to Irish season-ticket scalpers.

Ching, ching, for old Notre Dame . . .

On a related note, some experts think the Irish are toast if starting quarterback Arnaz Battle goes down. Not moi. The backup is a 6-foot-7 converted tight end, Gary Godsey, who, if given the chance, is capable of completing more passes than Purdue’s Drew Brees in a given game.

Mark this down: I sincerely see Southern Mississippi shutting out No. 3 Alabama in Birmingham on Sept. 16.

Also, after 21 consecutive losses, South Carolina appears ready to turn the corner under second-year Coach Lou Holtz. I like the Gamecocks to stun Georgia, open 3-0 and proceed to a major bowl.

Florida Coach Steve Spurrier?

He’s a changed man, we kid you not.

Gone are Visor Man’s arrogant, pithy asides about archrivals. If his Gators are plucky enough to beat Tennessee in Knoxville on Sept. 16, look for Spurrier to downplay the accomplishment and praise the play of his worthy opponent.

Lastly, I like Kansas State to roll Ball State, 76-0 . . .

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It was worth a shot, huh?

In truth, anyone dumb enough to pen such rubbish a month ago deserved to be carried off on a stretcher--with the exception of that spot-on Kansas State prediction.

Has there been a more confounding start to a college season?

After Saturday’s win over No. 3 Michigan, UCLA quarterback Ryan McCann said the Bruins deserved to be ranked No. 1 and, you know something, we weren’t laughing as hard on Wednesday as we were on Saturday.

Best we can tell, there is no clear-cut No. 1 this year and the national title race is going to end up a bowl championship series rankings crapshoot.

Let’s examine the flawed contenders in this week’s Associated Press top 10.

1. Nebraska (2-0). The Cornhuskers might be 1-1 had Notre Dame Coach Bob Davie not played for the tie, and lost, in South Bend.

2. Florida State (3-0). Looked disjointed in an opening win over Brigham Young and nearly lost to Georgia Tech. Where’s the running game?

3. Florida (3-0). The Gators move up three spots in the poll after pulling out a lucky win at Tennessee? Spurrier: “We’re a very, very average team.”

4. Kansas State (3-0). What a joke. In the wake of last weekend’s 76-0 win over Ball State, we demand the BCS impose a “luxury tax” on the Wildcats’ nonconference wins. How about half a BCS point deducted for every venomous victory of 60 points or more?

5. Virginia Tech (3-0). Wins against Akron, East Carolina and Rutgers leave us with no clue how good the Hokies might be.

6. UCLA (3-0). That win over Alabama becomes more tainted by the minute.

7. Wisconsin (3-0). Wisconsin? Cincinnati almost beat Wisconsin.

8. Washington (3-0). Interesting team, but one clean shot on quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo and the season’s over.

9. USC (2-0). The bureau of cold facts reports the combined record of the Trojans’ two opponents stands at 1-6.

10. Michigan (2-1). Had 15 chances to put UCLA away but couldn’t.

Is it parity or mediocrity?

“I think it’s just a sign of the times,” Nebraska Coach Frank Solich said. “Regardless of where you’re rated, if you’re not on top of your game and the underdog is on top of theirs, you’re in big trouble.”

BACK PAC

Things were so bleak last year Pac-10 coaches started blaming the downfall on a lack of nutrition, prompting conference athletic directors to approve legislation that will one day feed players in the off-season.

Or, maybe the coaches only need to eat their words.

“We attribute our success to our lack of year-round training table,” Pac-10 spokesman Jim Muldoon quipped in the Rose Bowl press box Saturday.

The conference’s stunning comeback vs. nonconference opponents has shocked even the Pac-10’s most ardent optimist.

“No, you can’t expect to go 19-4,” Commissioner Tom Hansen said by phone in the Denver airport this week on his way to NCAA meetings in Indianapolis. “That’s beyond my wildest dreams.”

The only stinker of the four defeats was Stanford’s 40-27 loss to San Jose State.

The Pac-10’s other three defeats were by a combined 16 points against three ranked opponents.

How to explain the turnaround?

Part of it is scheduling. Most of the conference’s crushing losses last year came on the road. This year, the conference has scored its major victories in Pac-10 parks: UCLA against Alabama and Michigan, Washington against Miami, USC against Colorado, and Stanford against Texas.

Another factor is maturity, especially at quarterback.

“Every time I saw a Pac-10 game last year, and there was a critical play, there was a false start,” Hansen said. “Every single time.”

You also cannot underestimate the wounded-pride factor. “The kids across the conference were embarrassed,” Hansen said. “We were really savaged, every time you turned on ‘SportsCenter’ or picked up a paper.”

There was no more dramatic turnaround than Texas-Stanford. Last year, in Austin, Texas won, 69-17.

Last Saturday, in Palo Alto, Stanford pulled out a 27-24 upset.

“We ran into a hornet’s nest,” Texas Coach Mack Brown said. “They played poorly against San Jose State and weren’t pleased, so they got beat up all week about that. Usually when you beat up athletes about playing poorly they’ll jump right on you.”

MAKING A LIST

Colorado Coach Gary Barnett’s 0-3 start has secured his hold on our top spot in the first (and hopefully last) BCWLCR power rankings.

BCWLCR? Best Coaches With Losing Career Records.

Saturday’s 17-14 defeat against Washington dropped Barnett’s overall coaching mark to 50-64-2, yet he once was coveted by the likes of UCLA, Texas and Notre Dame.

How to explain?

There are extenuating circumstances, for the most part, and Barnett isn’t alone.

Here are our rankings of big-time coaches with the subterranean career-record blues.

1. Barnett. His seven-year stint at lowly Northwestern was a killer. Barnett made his name with an incredible two-year, mid-1990s run during which the Wildcats went 19-5 and won consecutive Big Ten titles. In Barnett’s five other seasons in Evanston, the Wildcats were 16-39.

2. Bob Toledo, UCLA. OK, he’s 61-53 overall if you count a two-year, 15-6 stint at UC Riverside in the 1970s, but we don’t. At the major college level, Toledo is 46-47 after Saturday’s win over Michigan. Toledo is still hacking his way back from a four-year, 14-30 stint at Pacific from 1979-82.

3. Tom O’Brien, Boston College. He’s 1-1 this year and 17-19 overall in three-plus years at BC after inheriting a program savaged by a gambling scandal.

4. Mike Price, Washington State. If a coach went 106-111 in the woods, would anybody hear it? Price posted a 46-44 mark in eight years at Weber State and is 60-67 at Washington State since 1989. Working in lunar-landscape remoteness at Pullman, Price has produced first-round quarterbacks in Drew Bledsoe and Ryan Leaf and a miracle Rose Bowl run in 1997.

5. Paul Hackett, USC. Like Toledo, he’s probably not long for this list with a career mark of 29-31-1. Hackett is still paying off W-L debt from a 13-20-1 stint at the University of Pittsburgh.

6. Walt Harris, Pittsburgh. He earned his reputation as an offensive guru, but is 27-45 in six-plus seasons as a head coach and has yet to post a winning year. He can take Toledo’s cue and blame part of his misery on his UoP years, Harris going 11-24 from 1989-91 at a school whose football program is now RIP.

This year? Harris’ Panthers are 3-0.

7. Glen Mason, Minnesota. At 77-84-1, Mason is the Gene Mauch of the college game; he makes bad teams better.

8. Ron Turner, Illinois. At 21-27, he may prove to be a better coach than brother Norv.

Waiting list?

Stanford’s Tyrone Willingham is 31-28-1.