Tonight

Green Bay (7-3) at Jacksonville (3-7)

6, Channel 7

The line: Green Bay by 31/2

Story line: The Packers have been living dangerously, winning their last three contests by a total of six points. Jacksonville has been occupying the other end of the spectrum, having lost seven of their last eight games by an average of six points, blowing three fourth-quarter leads along the way.

Keys to the game: Mark Brunell will test the Packer rookie safety Bhawoh Jue by working deeper routes over the middle. Look for Jacksonville to use a lot of play action and draw plays to counter the Packer blitzes. The Packers must establish ball control by getting Ahman Green at least 20 carries, capitalizing on a Jaguar defense that has given up an average of 119 yards rushing over the last five games. The Brett Favre vs. Brunell battle should be exciting to watch. Brunell was Favre’s backup in 1993-94.

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MATCHUPS GB JAC Pts. Scored 23.7 (6) 17.2 (27) Pts. Allowed 16.7 (5) 17.2 (8) Passing Off. 247.3 (3) 200.3 (18) Rushing Off. 107.5 (18) 86.1 (27) Passing Def. 183.7 (7) 218.2 (21) Rushing Def. 97.7 (9) 117.8 (18) Time of Poss. 29:44 (18) 26:17 (31) Turnover Ratio 1 (14) 0 (18) Sacks 37 (2) 31 (5)

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The pick: Green Bay. Jacksonville will put points on the board, but the Packer balance on offense and defense will be the prevailing factor.