Optical Illusion

By LARRY STEWART

Jan. 27, 2001 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

The over-and-under line for the combined score of the Super Bowl is only 33, and a low-scoring game may produce a television rating that isn’t much higher.

This Super Bowl, or Super Bore as some are calling it, could be the first to get a sub-40 rating since 1990, the year Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers dismantled the Denver Broncos, 55-10.

That game got a 39.0 rating.

There are reasons for such gloom and doom.

One is the teams involved.

The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback, Trent Dilfer, has said, “I want my legacy to be that I was the quarterback of the team that won the Super bowl in spite of its quarterback.”

The New York Giants’ quarterback, Kerry Collins, was rejected by the New Orleans Saints and spent time in alcohol rehab less than two years ago.

The conference championship games got low ratings, another indication that the Super Bowl may be in trouble.

The Giants’ 41-0 blowout over Minnesota on Fox got a 20.6 national rating, the lowest ever for an NFC title game. The Ravens’ 16-3 victory over Oakland got a 22.6, the lowest AFC title game rating since the Raiders’ 51-3 loss to Buffalo in 1991 got a 22.0.

The third reason, and the most important, is that sports television ratings in general are down.

But if the Super Bowl, traditionally the biggest draw on television--all television, not only televised sports--is on the decline, what does that mean? Will televised sporting events soon be fading from view? Is the couch potato headed for extinction?

Not at all. It’s simply that, where TV and sports are concerned, things aren’t what they used to be.

Every story about sports ratings these days seems to be about record lows for major sporting events--the World Series, the NCAA basketball tournament, and the Olympics--not to mention sports in general.

While player salaries, television rights, ticket prices, concessions and parking are all on the rise, ratings are going the other way.

It doesn’t take an economics professor to sense something is out of whack.

The NFL, the Taj Mahal of sports, had ratings this season that were flatter than Dennis Miller’s jokes. For the regular season, CBS was off 10%, ABC 7%, Fox 4% and ESPN 14%.

Even NASCAR stock car racing, considered by some as the hottest sport around, dipped last year.

Only golf, thanks to Tiger Woods, has been immune to the ratings decline.

Ratings gathered by the A.C. Nielsen Co. are used by television to measure the popularity of sports and determine advertising rates.

If you look strictly at the Nielsen ratings, a conclusion could be reached that fans are finally getting fed up with overpaid, spoiled and ill-behaved athletes and their greedy, egotistical owners.

Certainly, that’s the case with some fans.

But there are no significant signs of an economic depression in sports as a whole.

Sports, for the most part, remains financially healthy and total sports viewership is actually on the rise. According to ESPN research, the network sports audience has grown 6.9% over the last five years, and viewing among women has grown 7.9%.

So why are ratings declining?

According to heads of networks, league commissioners, industry experts and media buyers, the slide is an illusion. There are concerns, but no one seems to be bracing for economic disaster.

The ratings dip can be explained--and/or rationalized.

Key in the equation are a proliferation of sports networks and saturation of sports on television.

“Overexposure and fragmentation are the culprits,” said Bob Igier, president of Media Edge, a New York company that each year buys about $300 million worth of sports advertising on television. “Because there are so many choices, so many games, individual telecasts have suffered.

“But, in aggregate, the vitality of sports remains.”

In 1984, only six networks televised at least two hours of sports a week, and those six showed a total of 10,400 hours. By 1994, sports networks had grown to 14, showing 21,000 hours.

In 2000, 22 networks televised more than 87,000 hours of sports.

The proliferation has affected all television programming. Last year, for instance, television’s highest-rated show was “ER” with an average rating of 17.9. In 1987, it was “The Cosby Show” with a 34.9.

“I would support any effort by the government to shut down about 300 channels,” quipped David Hill, the chairman of Fox Sports. “Not only do we face the competition of 500 channels, there are about 20 million Web sites. More magazines and books than ever are being published.

“There are so many more choices now, but television still provides advertisers with the largest group of eyeballs possible in a splintered world.”

Baseball

The greatest concerns are in baseball, even though the recent spending spree--highlighted by Alex Rodriguez’s $252-million contract with the Texas Rangers--seems to indicate that all economic principles have been tossed out the window.

The five-game World Series on Fox in October between the two New York teams averaged a 12.4 rating, an all-time low. Regular-season ratings on ESPN were off 17%, and Fox’s regular-season ratings were off 10%.

But it was that World Series number that threw baseball for a loop.

“Obviously, because of the television universe today, you can’t compare today’s ratings to those from 10 to 30 years ago,” Commissioner Bud Selig said.

“On the other hand, obviously, when there have been so many positives, such as a record attendance and a renaissance of the game as a whole, we are very concerned about the World Series ratings.

“We have appointed a blue-ribbon panel and, along with Fox, are analyzing the situation. That panel is analyzing every aspect and will give us a road map of what we can do to improve.

“We are looking at everything--starting times, every phase of the game--to see what can be done. Speeding up the game is a must, and steps to do that have already been taken.”

Pro Basketball

National telecasts on NBC didn’t begin until Christmas Day, so it may be too early to judge, but TNT and TBS ratings so far are down 14% from a year ago.

One reason for that might be that CNN, MSNBC and Fox News Channel stole viewers with their ongoing election coverage in November and early December. Those news network’s ratings soared during the ballot-counting controversy.

But attendance is also down, despite announced sellouts. Some season-ticket holders are not using their tickets. For example, the Chicago Bulls are averaging an NBA-best 21,769, even though United Center is often half-empty.

That the TNT and TBS numbers are down is not a good sign. The NBA was already coming off a season when ratings were as off as a Shaquille O’Neal free throw.

After the lockout-delayed 1998-99 season, NBC’s regular-season ratings for 1999-2000 were down 21%, and it was worse for TNT and TBS, which had a 23% decline.

To combat those declines, the networks tweaked their schedules--NBC cutting back on the number of Saturday telecasts and TBS and TNT going with telecasts on three successive nights, Tuesday through Thursday.

Playoff numbers were also down last season. NBC was off 12% for the playoffs, although the average rating for the final series between Indiana and the Lakers was up 3% from the previous year, when San Antonio beat New York in five games.

But any way the NBA tries to spin it, there is reason for concern.

Still, the league has been progressive in finding new ways to reach viewers.

“To stand still is to go backward,” said Ed Desser, the president of NBA new media and television ventures.

Commissioner David Stern has been at the forefront of the NBA’s technological thinking.

“Any place our consumers are going to be, we’re going to be there,” Stern said. “That includes over-the-air [NBC], cable, satellite, digital cable, the Internet, video games, play stations, and supplemental programming.”

He mentioned such NBA Entertain-produced shows as the syndicated “NBA Inside Stuff,” “NBA Action” on Fox Sports Net, “ESPN Matchup” on ESPN and ESPN2, and “Vintage NBA” on ESPN Classic.

“We also have shows on Nickelodeon, BET and even the Food Network,” Stern said.

The NBA and the Food Network recently signed a multiyear agreement that includes a series of specials, beginning in February, featuring NBA and WNBA players and their culinary interests.

The NBA also has NBA League Pass, the out-of-market package available on DirecTV and some cable systems. There’s also the NBA’s 24-hour network, NBA.com TV.

Another aspect of what Stern calls a “two-prong approach” to the problem of declining ratings is going global. He said NBA programming now reaches 207 countries.

“Basketball is an international language,” he said. “We have 110 employees in 10 offices outside the United States.”

Stern remembers well when the NBA first went international.

“It was 1983,” he said. “CBS cut back on the number of regular-season games it was doing and this man representing Italian TV came into my office. They were taking telecasts from CBS but now wanted to pay us for the rights.

“I said, ‘How much have you been paying CBS?’ He said $5,000 a game. I said, ‘Then that’s what we’ll charge you.’ ”

And the NBA was on its way to tapping into a worldwide audience.

Pro Football

Despite the feared low rating for the Super Bowl, the NFL remains the healthiest of all sports entities.

“Even if the Super Bowl gets only a 39,” Igier says, “we’re talking about numbers unmatched anywhere in the rest of television. Nowhere else do you get a 40 rating.”

The 43.2 rating for last year’s Super Bowl between St. Louis and Tennessee was the highest since San Francisco and San Diego got a 46.0 in 1995.

ABC’s “Monday Night Football,” which finished with an all-time low 12.7 average, down from a 13.7 in 1999, still ranked sixth among all prime-time shows, and first in the most important male demographic groups, 18-49 and 25-54.

Even in Los Angeles, which has no team, a bad NFL game will still outdraw just about any Laker game.

There are so many sporting events on television these days, viewers have to be selective, and it seems NFL football--played once a week and on days when television viewing is high--is the sport most viewers pick.

“If you go back to 1984, the last year before the cable explosion, our package has experienced a ratings decline of only 18%,” said Dennis Lewin, NFL senior vice president in charge of broadcasting.

“Meanwhile, prime-time network programming has declined 50% during the same period.”

Lewin pointed out that the NBA is down 32% since 1984, and baseball is down 55%.

“We’re holding our own over the long haul,” he said.

Lewin said “Monday Night Football” was hurt by two things this season--starting on Labor Day weekend, when families are traditionally away from home and not watching television, and going up against the Olympics on two successive Mondays.

“We will be moving off the Labor Day weekend,” Lewin said.

To accommodate starting the season the weekend after Labor Day, there will be only one week between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl for the two seasons after this one. Then to restore the two-week break, the Super Bowl will be pushed into February.

The 2004 Super Bowl will be played on Feb. 1 in Houston, the 2005 Super Bowl on Feb. 6 in Jacksonville, and the 2006 Super Bowl on Feb. 5 in Pontiac, Mich.

Conclusion

People in sports television remain optimistic.

“There’s something about network television and sports that still makes it a must-buy,” said Sean McManus, president of CBS Sports. “Advertisers are still willing to step up to the plate and pay the rates. Big events are still sold effectively. And generally, the dollars generated by ad sales cover the fees.

“All of us involved in sports television are concerned when ratings go down. But those decreases are factored in and not a surprise. [Sports] are still the most attractive properties.

“If it didn’t make sense, advertisers wouldn’t buy time and we wouldn’t buy the rights. For some reason, it all still seems to be working.”

Said the NBA’s Desser, a USC graduate who got his start producing Laker radio broadcasts: “Yes, when you look at the fairly archaic way of measuring television ratings, the numbers are going down. But we are always looking for new ways to better serve our fans, to focus first on serving people, and if we continue to do that, the business side will take care of itself.”

Artie Bulgrin, ESPN’s vice president in charge of research who can point to evidence that total sports viewing is increasing, said the record low ratings can be explained.

“The Olympics were down because of the delayed telecasts,” Bulgrin said. “The World Series was impacted because there was apathy outside New York. Who wanted to see the Yankees win another World Series?

“The fact of the matter is, advertisers know that to reach men 18-34, the hardest to reach demographic group, sports remains the best way.”

Some say the measuring system may be the problem.

CBS’ McManus: “I don’t believe that we are getting an accurate count from Nielsen. Some of the declines I see don’t make any sense.

“We’re coming up with some specific questions for Nielsen, and it’s up to them to come back to us and then talk about their methodology.”

Said Fox’s Hill: “I don’t think the ratings reflect the real number of people watching. The good thing is, advertisers know that too.”

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1982 - SAN FRANCISCO vs. Cincinnati

CBS - Rating: 49.1

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NBC - Rating: 48.6

1986 - CHICAGO vs. New England