NBA PREVIEW

MIAMI

* 2003-04 record: 42-40 (4th in East).

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HEAT Projected Starters G Eddie Jones G Dwyane Wade F Rasual Butler F Udonis Haslem C Shaquille O’Neal

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* Offense: 90.3 (22). Defense: 89.7 (8)

* Coming: O’Neal, Wesley Person, Damon Jones, Michael Doleac, Keyon Dooling, Christian Laettner, No. 1 pick Dorrell Wright.

* Going: Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, Samaki Walker.

* Outlook: Shaquille vs. the East. It’s not fair. Unlike the West, where everyone stockpiled big guys to throw in his path, only a few East teams (Detroit, Indiana, Philadelphia) are big enough to deal with him. The Heat had to strip down to get him but still has Eddie Jones and the sensational Dwyane Wade. Pat Riley landed some shooters, notably Person and Doleac, who’ll be the best backup Shaq ever had. Stan Van Gundy recovered from an 0-7 start after Riley’s eve-of-season retirement.

* Prediction: The long term may be a problem, but in the near term, this will work.

DETROIT

*--* 2

PISTONS Projected Starters G Chauncey Billups G Richard Hamilton F Tayshaun Prince F Rasheed Wallace C Ben Wallace

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* 2003-04 record: 54-28 (2nd in East).

* Offense: 90.1 (24). Defense: 84.3 (1, tie)

* Coming: Antonio McDyess, Derrick Coleman, Carlos Delfino.

* Going: Corliss Williamson, Mehmet Okur.

* Outlook: They were just a bunch of little Eastern overachievers with a new coach a year ago and look at them now. With Rasheed Wallace, they were better at the end of the season than they were at the start, and with McDyess and Delfino, they look better this fall than they did last spring. Delfino, an Argentine sharpshooter, looked good in exhibitions. McDyess, who played 28 games in three seasons and was dropped by the Knicks and Suns, was jumping like his old self, which would make him as great a steal as Wallace was.

* Prediction: If it weren’t for the fact that Larry Brown teams have always come down as fast as they’ve risen, you’d like their chances.

INDIANA

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PACERS Projected Starters G Jamaal Tinsley G Reggie Miller F Ron Artest F Jermaine O’Neal C Jeff Foster

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* 2003-04 record: 61-21 (1st in East)

* Offense: 91.4 (20). Defense: 85.6 (3).

* Coming: Stephen Jackson and No. 1 pick David Harrison.

* Going: Al Harrington, Kenny Anderson.

* Outlook: Big, deep and talented, they’ve come a long way for a team that was rebuilt after losing in the 2000 Finals, but their young players have to grow up soon. Coach Rick Carlisle is great but grates on people. Jermaine O’Neal is still coming. Reggie Miller is thought to be going. Ron Artest says he’s reformed -- again -- after committing a flagrant foul in the closing minutes of Game 6 of the East finals, sending Richard Hamilton to the line to put the Pistons ahead to stay. Artest is also wearing No. 91 this season to honor Dennis Rodman, one of his heroes.

* Prediction: Their future is now, or had better be.

PHILADELPHIA

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76ERS Projected Starters G Allen Iverson G Aaron McKie F Andre Iguodala F Kenny Thomas C Marc Jackson

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* 2003-04 record: 33-49 (10th in East, tie).

* Offense: 88.0 (28). Defense: 90.5 (10)

* Coming: Coach Jim O’Brien, Corliss Williamson, Brian Skinner, Kevin Ollie, Kedrick Brown, No. 1 pick Andre Iguodala.

* Going: Coaches Randy Ayers and Chris Ford, Eric Snow, Derrick Coleman.

* Outlook: Only in the East would you pick a bickering 33-win team to finish this high. Glenn Robinson could destroy a team’s chemistry single-handedly, and putting him together with Allen Iverson didn’t work. Still, this is one of the East’s biggest teams, and O’Brien is working on the cohesiveness, benching Robinson and Samuel Dalembert in favor of Iguodala and Marc Jackson.

* Prediction: O’Brien is also bringing in Dick Harter, a defensive ace and one of the few assistants who makes a difference by himself. If Iverson buys in, this will happen.

CLEVELAND

*--* 5

CAVALIERS Projected Starters G Eric Snow G Jeff McInnis F LeBron James F Drew Gooden C Zydrunas Ilgauskas

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* 2003-04 record: 35-47 (9th in East).

* Offense: 92.9 (14). Defense: 95.5 (17).

* Coming: Eric Snow, Drew Gooden, Lucious Harris, Scott Williams, No. 1 pick Luke Jackson.

* Going: Carlos Boozer, Kevin Ollie, Tony Battie.

* Outlook: Coming off a 17-65 season and a 6-19 start, they actually made a run at the playoffs behind LeBron James, who averaged 22 points, 6.1 assists and 5.1 rebounds after the All-Star break. Losing Boozer, who averaged 16 points and 11 rebounds, was devastating, but Gooden, who tanked in Orlando, is still promising. There’s a question of how coachable James is. There were already reports of grumbling about Paul Silas by unnamed players, who could only be James.

* Prediction: If the kids can keep it together, they’ll move up.

MILWAUKEE

*--* 6

BUCKS Projected Starters G Mike James G Michael Redd F Keith Van Horn F Joe Smith C Dan Gadzuric

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* 2003-04 record: 41-41 (5th in East, tie).

* Offense: 98.0 (14). Defense: 97.0 (21).

* Coming: Maurice Williams, Zaza Pachulia.

* Going: Brian Skinner, Damon Jones, Brevin Knight.

* Outlook: After dismantling their old George Karl-Sam Cassell-Glenn Robinson-Ray Allen team, they were expected to drop out of sight but, instead, became a surprise under rookie Coach Terry Porter. Porter coaches an up-tempo style, with 10 players in the rotation and only Michael Redd averaging 31 minutes a game. The Bucks are still small, and last season’s point guards are gone. T.J. Ford is out because of a back problem, and Jones signed with the Heat. But they were able to trade for Williams, who was promising as a Jazz rookie.

* Prediction: There’s nothing like a system that works, especially in the East, where you don’t have to win 50 games to finish this high.

ORLANDO

*--* 7

MAGIC Projected Starters G Steve Francis G Cuttino Mobley F Grant Hill F Dwight Howard C Kelvin Cato

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* 2003-04 record: 21-61 (15th in East).

* Offense: 94.0 (12). Defense: 101.1 (29).

* Coming: Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Kelvin Cato, Tony Battie, Hedo Turkoglu, No. 1 picks Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson.

* Going: Tracy McGrady, Drew Gooden, Juwan Howard, Ty Lue, Steven Hunter.

* Outlook: Coach Doc Rivers and GM John Gabriel spent four seasons waiting for Grant Hill. Now the coach is Johnny Davis, the GM is John Weisbrod and Hill is trying yet another comeback. Weisbrod is a former NHL player with scant NBA experience, and Davis looked overmatched in both of his seasons as a head coach, so it remains to be seen whether the Magic has upgraded. Howard looks like the real deal, and Francis and Mobley will shoot them into the middle of the pack. How much further they go, as usual, depends on Hill.

* Prediction: Good luck.

NEW YORK

*--* 8

KNICKS Projected Starters G Stephon Marbury G Jamal Crawford F Tim Thomas F Kurt Thomas C Nazr Mohammed

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* 2003-04 record: 39-43 (7th in East).

* Offense: 92.0 (16). Defense: 93.5 (13.)

* Coming: Jamal Crawford, Jerome Williams.

* Going: Dikembe Mutombo, Othella Harrington.

* Outlook: Isiah Thomas, a Gotham type of guy, who’s always firing or trading someone, got them back in the playoffs, since 39 wins were good enough. However, the title they were talking about -- we’re not making this up -- didn’t materialize. With Allan Houston out, they lost, 4-0, to the Nets, and he isn’t back yet. Now for the dizzy backcourt of all time, dour Stephon Marbury and Crawford. After two crushing exhibition defeats in the West, Marbury was already musing about fans calling for Coach Lenny Wilkens’ head, the papers were speculating about Phil Jackson and Thomas was calling Jackson “an attractive candidate.”

* Prediction: Next, Vince Carter?

BOSTON

*--* 9

CELTICS Projected Starters G Gary Payton G Ricky Davis F Paul Pierce F Raef LaFrentz C Mark Blount

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* 2003-04 record: 36-46 (8th in East).

* Offense: 95.3 (8). Defense: 96.7 (20).

* Coming: Coach Doc Rivers, Gary Payton, Tom Gugliotta, No. 1 picks Al Jefferson, Tony Allen and Delonte West.

* Going: Coaches Jim O’Brien, John Carroll; Chucky Atkins, Chris Mihm, Jumaine Jones.

* Outlook: GM Danny Ainge is a refreshing change who isn’t willing to settle for making the playoffs, but proceeds according to a cockamamie interpretation of Red Auerbach’s philosophy that says they should become a good scoring team and then find a big guy, as they did before getting Bill Russell in 1956. Rivers’ foibles-heavy lineup has Payton and Ricky Davis joining Paul Pierce, who’s had too much leeway for his own good.

* Prediction: In continuing payback for all that cigar smoke, this will make 18 years since their last title with none on the horizon.

NEW JERSEY

*--* 10

NETS Projected Starters G Jason Kidd G Ron Mercer F Richard Jefferson F Eric Williams C Jason Collins

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* 2003-04 record: 47-35 (3rd in East).

* Offense: 90.3 (23). Defense: 87.8 (4).

* Coming: Eric Williams, Travis Best, Ron Mercer, Jacque Vaughn, Rodney Buford.

* Going: Kenyon Martin, Kerry Kittles, Lucious Harris, Rodney Rogers.

* Outlook: It’s going to be a long lame-duck season in the swamp. New owner Bruce Rat- ner, who bought the Nets to be the centerpiece to sell his still-only-on-paper Brooklyn development, is trimming his losses until 2008 when he hopes to move. The Nets gave away their No. 1 pick and let Martin, Kittles and Harris go. Jason Kidd is coming off knee surgery, won’t be ready to start the season and says he’d like to go too. Kidd is 31, with five years and $90 million left on his contract, so the Nets will have to dump him and probably will.

* Prediction: Would you believe that now they’re rebuilding around Richard Jefferson?

WASHINGTON

*--* 11

WIZARDS Projected Starters G Gilbert Arenas G Larry Hughes F Antawn Jamison F Kwame Brown C Brendan Haywood

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* 2003-04 record: 25-57 (13th in East).

* Offense: 91.8 (18). Defense: 97.4 (22).

* Coming: Antawn Jamison, Anthony Peeler, Samaki Walker.

* Going: Jerry Stackhouse, Christian Laett- ner.

* Outlook: In retrospect, whom do you want running your organization, Michael Jordan or Abe Pollin? With Jordan, they were too old. Without him, they’re too young. Kwame Brown, the 2001 top overall pick, is approaching restricted free agency and could be elsewhere by this time next year. Gilbert Arenas is good but wrapped too tight. Moving Stackhouse and his $6.5-million salary helps. Jamison has a problem or two (he’s a tweener who’s been called selfish) but at least he tries.

* Prediction: They’ll duel the Bulls to see which talented young team that won’t make the playoffs finishes higher.

TORONTO

*--* 12

RAPTORS Projected Starters G Rafer Alston G Jalen Rose F Vince Carter F Chris Bosh C Rafael Araujo

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* 2003-04 record: 33-49 (10th in East, tie).

* Offense: 85.4 (29). Defense: 88.5 (6).

* Coming: Coach Sam Mitchell, Rafer Alston, No. 1 pick Rafael Araujo.

* Going: Coach Kevin O’Neill.

* Outlook: After leading the Raptors nowhere, Carter, the reluctant superstar, wants out. Management is resisting, but the fans are booing and soon there may be no choice. They were actually respectable for a while (25-25 at the All-Star break) under O’Neill, a defensive ace, but he kept rolling his eyes at the front office, which didn’t appreciate it. After they sent away Antonio Davis for yet another perimeter player, Jalen Rose, O’Neill had to play a little front line of Chris Bosh, Donyell Marshall and Carter. Araujo, a 6-10 widebody from Brazil, won’t be ready soon.

* Prediction: Vince gets his wish, and they start over.

CHICAGO

*--* 13

BULLS Projected Starters G Kirk Hinrich G Ben Gordon F Andres Nocioni F Tyson Chandler C Eddy Curry

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* 2003-04 record: 23-59 (14th in East).

* Offense: 89.7 (26). Defense: 96.0 (18).

* Coming: Eric Piatkowski, Andres Nocioni, Adrian Griffin, Othella Harrington, No. 1 picks Ben Gordon and Luol Deng.

* Going: Jamal Crawford, Jerome Williams.

* Outlook: Despite appearances and misadventures, they’re actually getting somewhere. Last season they fell from 30 wins to 23 with new Coach Scott Skiles ripping Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler daily. Skiles now says the media made him sound negative, presumably by publishing his comments. Curry is down to 280, although he’s interested only in scoring and makes even the reformed Skiles crazy. The starting lineup -- with Kirk Hinrich, Gordon and Nocioni, their prize Argentine free agent -- has promise but little experience.

* Prediction: It’s crunch time for Skiles too, or should be.

ATLANTA

*--* 14

HAWKS Projected Starters G Kenny Anderson G Boris Diaw F Al Harrington F Antoine Walker C Jason Collier

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* 2003-04 record: 28-54 (12th in East).

* Offense: 92.8 (15). Defense: 97.5 (23).

* Coming: Coach Mike Woodson, Antoine Walker, Al Harrington, Jon Barry, Kevin Willis, Kenny Anderson, Predrag Drobjnak, Tony Delk, No. 1 picks Josh Childress and Josh Smith.

* Going: Coach Terry Stotts and everyone except Jason Collier, Chris Crawford and Boris Diaw.

* Outlook: Now they’re like an expansion team that has to be assembled from scratch. Of course, after averaging 52 losses over the last five seasons, they had nothing to lose. When Walker’s $14.6 million comes off their cap after the season, they’ll have enough room to offer two maximum deals. The trick will be getting anyone to come.

* Prediction: What’s another 50 losses, at this point?

CHARLOTTE

*--* 15

BOBCATS Projected Starters G Jason Hart G Gerald Wallace F Tamar Slay F Emeka Okafor C Primoz Brezec

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* Record: Inaugural season.

* Outlook: First this city got George Shinn and the Hornets. Then they were deserted. Now this. If anyone ever breaks the 76ers’ 9-73 record, this is the team to do it. No. 1 pick Emeka Okafor is still troubled by a bad back. Everyone else was a sub last season, and most were at the end of the bench. The most any of them averaged was former Clipper Eddie House’s 6.8 points a game. Coach/GM Bernie Bickerstaff is focused on cap room. Of the 16 players he brought to camp, 12 were on contracts that will run out at season’s end. It’s an opportunity for Gerald Wallace, the super-athlete who was buried on the bench in Sacramento, former Pacer Primoz Brezec and former Bruin/Cavalier Jason Kapono.

* Prediction: If they get to 20 wins, they should hold a victory parade down Billy Graham Parkway.